【摘要】：隨著電網的快速發(fā)展和強對流天氣的增多,由惡劣天氣造成的輸電線路故障頻繁發(fā)生,嚴重威脅了電網的安全可靠運行。雷電現象生消時間短、變化快,引發(fā)的線路跳閘事件在電網故障統(tǒng)計中所占比例極大。大風作用下線路會發(fā)生偏斜,引起的風偏放電故障重合閘不易成功。各種自然災害尤其是大范圍的災害性天氣對輸電線路造成的損壞比電氣事故的影響更為惡劣嚴重,計及氣象因素對電網故障進行預警研究具有重要意義。本文基于氣象信息對安徽電網的故障進行了預警研究,主要包括由雷電和大風引起的故障,并基于氣象信息給出一個電網靜態(tài)安全風險評估體系的框架和模型。考慮到雷電現象生消時間短、變化快的特點,利用雷電在線監(jiān)測數據,提出基于圖像識別技術進行雷區(qū)識別,并基于三時次雷區(qū)信息進行雷電軌跡追蹤和預測。同時,對安徽省落雷歷史數據進行統(tǒng)計,得到桿塔的落雷概率。在此基礎之上,結合輸電線路雷擊跳閘計算方法,利用雷區(qū)預測信息計算線路的雷擊跳閘概率,實現線路雷害故障預警。結合歷史數據進行算例分析,結果表明,基于三時次信息的雷區(qū)預測準確性較高,相應的線路雷擊跳閘概率值也具有較高的準確率而可以作為雷擊跳閘預警指標。分析風的構成,對脈動風風速進行模擬。利用幾何方法分析懸垂絕緣子串的風偏響應,對輸電線路在穩(wěn)定風和脈動風作用下的風偏響應進行對比分析,得出脈動風對懸垂絕緣子串風偏的影響隨基準風速的增大而增大的結論。從而以此為基礎,提出利用g-h分布擬合脈動風風速而實現大風預警,并提出基于脈動風模擬利用概率統(tǒng)計方法計算輸電線路風偏概率。結合歷史數據進行算例分析,結果表明,g-h分布對脈動風風速的擬合效果較好,線路風偏故障概率預測也較為準確。將電網氣象故障概率與電網運行狀態(tài)相結合,提出基于D5000平臺的電網靜態(tài)安全風險評估體系,介紹了其框架與模型構成,給出基于氣象信息的全網在線監(jiān)測與評估的實現方案,為建設電網氣象故障預警系統(tǒng)給出建議。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of power grid and the increase of severe convective weather, transmission line faults caused by severe weather frequently occur, which seriously threaten the safe and reliable operation of power grid. The lightning phenomenon has the advantages of short generation time and fast change, which results in a great proportion of line tripping events in power network fault statistics. The fault reclosing caused by wind bias discharge is not easy to succeed because of the deflection of the line under the action of strong wind. All kinds of natural disasters, especially the disastrous weather in a large area, cause more serious damage to transmission lines than electrical accidents, so it is of great significance to study the early warning of power network faults taking into account meteorological factors. In this paper, based on meteorological information, the fault warning of Anhui power grid is studied, including the failure caused by lightning and gale. Based on the meteorological information, the framework and model of a static security risk assessment system for power grid are presented. Considering the characteristics of the lightning phenomenon, such as short duration and fast change, using the on-line monitoring data of lightning and lightning, this paper puts forward a method of minefield identification based on image recognition technology, and tracks and forecasts the lightning track based on the information of 03:00 minefield. At the same time, according to the historical data of falling mine in Anhui Province, the probability of falling out of pole tower is obtained. On this basis, combined with the lightning tripping calculation method of transmission line, the lightning tripping probability of the transmission line is calculated by using the prediction information of minefield, and the lightning damage fault early warning of the transmission line is realized. Combining with the historical data, the results show that the prediction accuracy of the minefield based on 03:00 information is high, and the corresponding lightning tripping probability value has higher accuracy and can be used as an early warning index for lightning tripping. The composition of the wind is analyzed and the wind speed of the pulsating wind is simulated. The wind deviation response of a suspended insulator string is analyzed by geometric method, and the wind deviation response of transmission line under the action of steady wind and pulsating wind is compared and analyzed. It is concluded that the influence of pulsating wind on the wind deviation of the suspended insulator string increases with the increase of the reference wind speed. On this basis, it is proposed to use g-h distribution to fit the wind speed of pulsating wind to realize wind warning, and to calculate the probability of wind deviation of transmission line based on the simulation of pulsating wind. Combining with the historical data, the results show that the distribution of g-h has a better fitting effect on the wind speed of pulsating wind, and the probability of fault prediction of wind deviation of the line is also more accurate. Combining the probability of meteorological failure of power network with the running state of power network, a static security risk assessment system based on D5000 platform is put forward, its framework and model structure are introduced, and the realization scheme of on-line monitoring and evaluation for the whole network based on meteorological information is given. Some suggestions are given for the construction of meteorological fault warning system in power grid.
【學位授予單位】：天津大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM75;TM08

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 段樹喬;導線舞動時懸垂式絕緣子串的動力特性[J];中國電力;1994年12期

2 楊明彬;330kV蘭海Ⅰ回64~#塔中相跳線對塔身主材放電事故的分析[J];青海電力;2000年02期

3 張旭輝,朱宏輝,鄭啟忠;最優(yōu)指派問題匈牙利算法的探討與C_(++)實現[J];物流技術;2004年05期

4 司馬文霞,陳寧,許高峰,顧樂觀;高桿塔大跨越輸電線路防雷保護[J];重慶大學學報(自然科學版);2002年09期

5 陳國慶,張志勁,孫才新,司馬文霞;輸電線路耐雷性能計算方法的研究現狀分析[J];重慶大學學報(自然科學版);2003年05期

6 陳勉,張鳴;對采用重錘來改善直線桿塔絕緣子串風偏的看法[J];廣東電力;2000年06期

7 胡毅;500kV輸電線路風偏跳閘的分析研究[J];高電壓技術;2004年08期

8 柳毅,佟明安;匈牙利算法在多目標分配中的應用[J];火力與指揮控制;2002年04期

9 劉光蓉,周紅,管庶安;基于圖像處理技術的大米輪廓檢測[J];糧食與飼料工業(yè);2004年06期

10 張仲秋,袁玉龍,張國彥;110kV浩默祁線閃絡原因分析及措施[J];青海電力;2005年02期

相關博士學位論文 前1條

1 陳國慶;交流輸電線路繞擊仿真模型及同桿雙回耐雷性能的研究[D];重慶大學;2003年

相關碩士學位論文 前9條

1 付興;風雨荷載共同作用下高壓輸電塔的動力反應分析及風洞試驗研究[D];大連理工大學;2013年

2 張艷玲;高壓輸電線絕緣子串風偏計算模型的研究[D];太原理工大學;2012年

3 黃文彥;雷暴臨近預報系統(tǒng)設計與實現[D];電子科技大學;2011年

4 徐文軍;冰風暴災害下輸電線路故障概率預測及應急對策研究[D];長沙理工大學;2011年

5 鐘炯聰;高壓輸電線路綜合防雷措施的分析與探討[D];華南理工大學;2010年

6 沈永海;北京夏季強雷暴降水回波結構與閃電特征初步研究[D];南京信息工程大學;2009年

7 王楊;風荷載下輸電塔體系動力可靠性分析[D];大連理工大學;2008年

8 任月明;風雨激勵下輸電塔線體系的動力響應分析[D];大連理工大學;2007年

9 鄭佳艷;動態(tài)風作用下懸垂絕緣子串風偏計算研究[D];重慶大學;2006年

，

本文編號：2191281