本文選題：電力經(jīng)濟預(yù)測 + 預(yù)測模型��； 參考：《天津大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：針對國家電網(wǎng)公司在2013年5月正式啟動建設(shè)區(qū)域電網(wǎng)運營監(jiān)測中心的實際預(yù)測需求，開發(fā)一套具有改進預(yù)測模型的電網(wǎng)運營監(jiān)測電力經(jīng)濟預(yù)測系統(tǒng)，對于提升運營監(jiān)測中心的業(yè)務(wù)監(jiān)控能力，開拓運營監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)應(yīng)用功能，持續(xù)開展信息管理系統(tǒng)深化使用，全面提高電網(wǎng)運營管理水平，不斷提高社會和經(jīng)濟效益等方面，具有重要的理論價值和實際意義。 本文論述了電力經(jīng)濟預(yù)測的有關(guān)研究背景、相關(guān)進展，，介紹了新形勢下區(qū)域電網(wǎng)運營監(jiān)測中心的建立狀況以及預(yù)測需求，研究給出了區(qū)域電網(wǎng)運營監(jiān)測中的電力經(jīng)濟預(yù)測指標，分析了現(xiàn)有預(yù)測模型的狀況，針對實際需要，改進建立了基于灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度的中長期電力經(jīng)濟綜合優(yōu)選預(yù)測模型和神經(jīng)----灰色遞階轉(zhuǎn)換短期電力經(jīng)濟智能預(yù)測模型，并在實證中取得了較好的預(yù)測效果。 本文進行了電力經(jīng)濟預(yù)測系統(tǒng)的系統(tǒng)設(shè)計、數(shù)學模型的計算機語言實現(xiàn)以及各功能模塊的具體開發(fā)，按照電網(wǎng)運營監(jiān)測中心的要求對系統(tǒng)進行設(shè)計、開發(fā)，在實現(xiàn)基本功能基礎(chǔ)上努力方便用戶使用，提供了可靠完善的各項功能。對預(yù)測軟件系統(tǒng)進行了運行和測試，并已針對某區(qū)域電網(wǎng)進行了實際試用，使系統(tǒng)可以在實際中使用，具有較好的實用性和可操作性。從而完成了區(qū)域電網(wǎng)運營監(jiān)測電力經(jīng)濟預(yù)測系統(tǒng)的全部開發(fā)。 對全文的研究進行了總結(jié)，分析了存在的問題并提出了改進建議。
[Abstract]:In view of the actual forecasting demand of the State Grid Company to build a regional power network operation monitoring center in May 2013, a power economic forecasting system for power network operation monitoring with an improved forecasting model is developed. For improving the business monitoring ability of the operation monitoring center, developing the application function of the operation monitoring data, continuing to deepen the use of the information management system, comprehensively improving the power network operation and management level, continuously improving the social and economic benefits, etc. It has important theoretical value and practical significance. This paper discusses the research background and development of electric power economic forecasting, introduces the establishment of regional power network operation monitoring center and its forecasting demand under the new situation, and gives the power economic forecast indexes in the regional power network operation monitoring. This paper analyzes the status of existing forecasting models, and improves and establishes the model of comprehensive optimal selection and prediction of medium and long term electric power economy based on grey correlation degree and the intelligent forecasting model of short-term power economy with neural grey hierarchical conversion. And in the empirical results obtained better prediction results. This paper has carried on the system design of the electric power economy forecast system, the computer language realization of the mathematical model and the concrete development of each function module, has carried on the design, the development according to the power network operation monitoring center request, On the basis of realizing basic functions, it is easy for users to use and provides reliable and perfect functions. The prediction software system has been run and tested, and has been tried out for a regional power network. The system can be used in practice and has good practicability and maneuverability. Thus, the development of regional power network operation monitoring power economic forecasting system is completed. This paper summarizes the research, analyzes the existing problems and puts forward some suggestions for improvement.
【學位授予單位】：天津大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TP311.52;F426.61

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