本文選題：跨區(qū)域 + 電力產(chǎn)業(yè)�。� 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：中國電力資源與負荷分布呈逆向分布,電力資源主要分布在西部、北部地區(qū),而負荷則主要分布在東部地區(qū),由此造成中國電力工業(yè)供電成本高昂,風電消納困難,輸電損耗嚴重,電力投資臃腫等窘?jīng)r。對社會而言,造成一系列負外部性效應(yīng),其提高了社會用電成本,降低了能源利用效率,也加劇了大氣污染程度。如何協(xié)調(diào)電力資源與負荷分布,實現(xiàn)電力資源的跨區(qū)域優(yōu)化配置已經(jīng)成為制約電力工業(yè)低碳化、可持續(xù)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵問題。 傳統(tǒng)模式下電力資源的跨區(qū)域配置主要依賴一次能源運輸?shù)哪Ｊ綄崿F(xiàn),遠距離輸電技術(shù)的發(fā)展在一定程度上緩解了傳統(tǒng)能源運輸通道的壓力,豐富了電力資源跨區(qū)配置的形式。中國正致力建設(shè)跨區(qū)域輸電通道,強化區(qū)域間電網(wǎng)架構(gòu),通過區(qū)域間的發(fā)電置換優(yōu)化清潔能源的利用水平,緩解受端區(qū)域發(fā)電排污壓力。在此背景下,圍繞中國電力資源跨區(qū)域優(yōu)化配置展開研究,重點研究了電力資源與負荷分布的協(xié)調(diào)狀況,區(qū)域間電力資源配置要素的因果傳遞關(guān)系,區(qū)域間電源與電網(wǎng)協(xié)調(diào)規(guī)劃,大規(guī)模風電跨區(qū)域消納以及跨區(qū)域配置下發(fā)電企業(yè)利益分配、交易談判等問題。 電力資源與負荷分布協(xié)調(diào)的程度決定了電力資源跨區(qū)域配置的難度與深度。圍繞中國電力負荷與煤炭、水能、風能三類能源的分布進行分析,借助基尼系數(shù)對負荷與能源分布的協(xié)調(diào)程度進行測算。分析結(jié)果表明煤炭、水能、風能的分布與負荷的協(xié)調(diào)程度都比較低,但水電與風電開發(fā)的傾向性在一定程度上緩解了一次能源與負荷分布的不協(xié)調(diào)。 電力資源跨區(qū)域配置受到輸電線路容量、輸電價格、風電消納水平等客觀因素的制約,這些因素影響了能源產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈實物量與價值量的傳遞與反饋,有鑒于此,構(gòu)建了區(qū)域間電力資源供需的系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型。通過因果關(guān)系圖與流積圖描繪系統(tǒng)中各變量之間因果傳遞關(guān)系,借助Vensim軟件對區(qū)域間電力資源供需關(guān)系與價格的變化趨勢進行仿真模擬,并以煤炭供應(yīng)、經(jīng)濟增長率、風電利用小時以及輸電容量等因素為敏感因子對電力資源的跨區(qū)域配置狀況進行敏感性分析。 電力資源跨區(qū)域配置受區(qū)域間電力規(guī)劃的限制,反之,電力規(guī)劃也在一定程度上左右了電力規(guī)劃的走勢。以規(guī)劃年內(nèi)發(fā)電綜合成本最小為目標,考慮了電力平衡、發(fā)電備用、建設(shè)成本的約束條件,構(gòu)建了多類型發(fā)電機組與跨區(qū)域輸電網(wǎng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的優(yōu)化模型,通過優(yōu)化協(xié)調(diào)了電源與電網(wǎng)的建設(shè)容量與建設(shè)時點,既保證區(qū)域間電力資源配置的發(fā)展進程,提高能源綜合利用效率,同時避免了因發(fā)電與電網(wǎng)建設(shè)不協(xié)調(diào)而導(dǎo)致投資的浪費。 區(qū)域間輸電通道的建設(shè)擴大了風電的消納空間,在一定程度上降低了棄風水平。中短期而言,風電可與火電打捆通過輸電專線輸送至受端區(qū)域；以機組組合模型為基礎(chǔ),考慮風電調(diào)峰、輸電功率波動等約束構(gòu)建了風火聯(lián)合外送的調(diào)度模型,對參與電力外送的風電與火電進行實時輸出功率的協(xié)調(diào)優(yōu)化。中長期而言,風電的消納可以借鑒電力庫模式；配合需求側(cè)負荷對電價的響應(yīng)機制以及儲能系統(tǒng)對風電反負荷特性的調(diào)節(jié)能力,通過改變負荷與出力的時間分布以擴大風電的消納水平。 電力資源跨區(qū)域配置將影響電力市場參與者的市場份額,因此,理順各市場參與者的利益關(guān)系是推進電力資源跨區(qū)域配置的基礎(chǔ)。關(guān)于風電與火電聯(lián)合外送中雙方利潤分配的問題,以雙方對聯(lián)盟效益的貢獻度為依據(jù),借助Shapley值法與核心法對雙方進行利益分配,并以區(qū)域碳交易價差以及輸電波動約束作為敏感因子,研究其對利益分配份額的影響。關(guān)于區(qū)域間火電機組發(fā)電權(quán)交易談判的問題,基于Zeuthen決策以及貝葉斯學(xué)習提出一個雙方逐步估算對方底價,逐步收斂雙方報價差的談判模型,盡可能使雙方效用達到最大化。
[Abstract]:The electric power resources and load distribution in China are distributed in a reverse direction , and the electric power resources are mainly distributed in the western and northern areas , and the load is mainly distributed in the eastern region , which leads to a series of negative external effects , such as high power supply cost of the power industry , difficulty in wind power consumption , serious transmission loss , heavy power investment and the like .

The cross - region configuration of power resources in the traditional mode is mainly dependent on the mode of primary energy transportation . The development of long - distance transmission technology has relieved the pressure of traditional energy transportation channels to a certain extent and enriched the cross - region configuration of power resources .

The degree of coordination of power resource and load distribution determines the difficulty and depth of power resource cross - region configuration . The distribution of power load and coal , water energy and wind energy in China is analyzed , and the degree of coordination of load and energy distribution is calculated by means of Koniki coefficient . The results show that coal , water energy , wind energy distribution and load coordination degree are relatively low , but the tendency of hydropower and wind power development can alleviate the non - coordination of primary energy and load distribution to some extent .

The cross - region configuration of power resources is restricted by objective factors such as capacity of power transmission lines , transmission price and wind power consumption . These factors influence the transfer and feedback of the real quantity and value of energy industry chain . Based on Vensim software , the relationship between supply and demand of power resources and the trend of price change are simulated , and the sensitivity analysis is made on the cross - region configuration of power resources with the factors such as coal supply , economic growth rate , wind power utilization hour and transmission capacity .

On the contrary , electric power planning is limited by interregional power planning . On the other hand , electric power planning is the trend of electric power planning to a certain extent . The optimization model of coordinated development of multi - type generator sets and trans - regional power transmission networks is established by optimizing the constraint conditions of power balance , power generation reserve and construction cost . By optimizing the coordination of the development process of power supply and power distribution and the construction time point , the development process of the interregional power resource allocation is ensured , and the waste of investment is avoided because of the non - coordination of power generation and power grid .

In the short and short term , wind power can be delivered to the receiving area through the transmission line .
Based on the combination model of wind power and power fluctuation of power transmission , the dispatching model of air - fire combined external transmission is constructed , and the coordination and optimization of the real - time output power of wind power and thermal power outside the power supply are optimized .
The response mechanism of the demand side load to the electricity price and the energy storage system ' s ability to adjust the wind power anti - load characteristic are matched to enlarge the wind power consumption level by changing the time distribution of the load and the output force .

The cross - regional arrangement of power resources will affect the market share of power market participants . Therefore , it is the basis of promoting the cross - regional arrangement of power resources . As a basis of the contribution of both parties to the benefits of the alliance , the paper studies the influence of the two parties on the share of benefit distribution . On the basis of Zeuthen ' s decision - making and Bayesian learning , we propose a negotiation model for the two parties to gradually estimate each other ' s base price and gradually converge the price difference between the two parties , so as to maximize the effectiveness of the two parties .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.61

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本文編號：1987941