本文選題：健康指數(shù) + 故障概率　； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：研究基于設(shè)備安全性與經(jīng)濟(jì)性的狀態(tài)評(píng)價(jià)模型,并依據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型計(jì)算單臺(tái)設(shè)備風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值,為開(kāi)展變電設(shè)備狀態(tài)檢修提供科學(xué)依據(jù),為電網(wǎng)運(yùn)行提供輔助決策信息。針對(duì)變電設(shè)備因制造工藝、科技水平、運(yùn)行損耗及超期服役等影響因素而產(chǎn)生的安全隱患,制定狀態(tài)檢修策略；其中的狀態(tài)評(píng)價(jià)模型、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型綜合考慮安全、可靠性、環(huán)境、成本等要素可規(guī)避此類(lèi)安全隱患,提高供電可靠性與運(yùn)維經(jīng)濟(jì)性。 狀態(tài)評(píng)價(jià)對(duì)影響設(shè)備健康狀態(tài)的各類(lèi)工況數(shù)據(jù)以及設(shè)備可靠性的定量分析,按照預(yù)定的量化標(biāo)準(zhǔn)對(duì)各類(lèi)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,并求解設(shè)備當(dāng)前及未來(lái)的健康指數(shù)、故障發(fā)生概率。狀態(tài)評(píng)價(jià)可為設(shè)備資產(chǎn)的更換、維修、技術(shù)改造以及新設(shè)備規(guī)劃等決策提供科學(xué)的指導(dǎo)依據(jù),其主要作用在于輔助資產(chǎn)的可靠性管理、設(shè)備檢修維護(hù)資源的合理安排及投資規(guī)劃。 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估分析設(shè)備故障發(fā)生概率和故障后果的處理情況,從電網(wǎng)性能、修復(fù)成本、人身安全、環(huán)境影響等方面計(jì)算電力企業(yè)所關(guān)心的各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估不局限于對(duì)設(shè)備可靠性、檢修資源的管理,還上升到電網(wǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的高度,為企業(yè)的資產(chǎn)管理和長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)投資規(guī)劃提供決策依據(jù)。 實(shí)例分析表明,經(jīng)狀態(tài)評(píng)價(jià)與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估后的狀態(tài)檢修方法可量化設(shè)備健康指數(shù)、故障概率及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值,指導(dǎo)變電設(shè)備的更換、改造、運(yùn)行與檢修試驗(yàn)等工作,具有工程應(yīng)用價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:The state evaluation model based on equipment safety and economy is studied, and the risk value of a single equipment is calculated according to the risk assessment model, which provides a scientific basis for carrying out condition maintenance of substation equipment and provides auxiliary decision information for power grid operation. In view of the hidden trouble caused by the factors such as manufacturing technology, scientific and technological level, operation loss and extended service, the strategy of condition-based maintenance is formulated, in which the state evaluation model and risk assessment model consider safety and reliability comprehensively. Environment, cost and other factors can avoid such safety risks, and improve the reliability of power supply and operation and maintenance economy. Based on the quantitative analysis of all kinds of working condition data and equipment reliability which affect the equipment's health state, the data are analyzed according to the predetermined quantization standard, and the current and future health index of the equipment and the probability of failure are solved. State evaluation can provide scientific guidance for equipment assets replacement, maintenance, technical transformation and new equipment planning, and its main role is to assist the reliability management of assets. Reasonable arrangement and investment planning of equipment maintenance resources. The risk assessment analyzes the probability of equipment failure and the treatment of fault consequences, and calculates the various risk values concerned by electric power enterprises from the aspects of power network performance, repair cost, personal safety, environmental impact and so on. Risk assessment is not limited to the management of equipment reliability and maintenance resources, but also rises to the height of grid risk management, which provides the decision basis for enterprise's asset management and long-term investment planning. The analysis of examples shows that the condition based maintenance method after condition evaluation and risk assessment can quantify equipment health index, failure probability and risk value, guide the replacement, transformation, operation and maintenance test of substation equipment, and have engineering application value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TM73

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本文編號(hào)：1795275