本文選題：超短期風(fēng)電預(yù)測(cè)功率　切入點(diǎn)：跟蹤風(fēng)電計(jì)劃出力　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：近些年來,電力系統(tǒng)處于快速發(fā)展時(shí)期以及關(guān)鍵的轉(zhuǎn)型期,風(fēng)力發(fā)電由于環(huán)保的優(yōu)勢(shì)得到了快速的發(fā)展,在過去幾年內(nèi)擴(kuò)張的速度十分迅猛。但是由于風(fēng)力發(fā)電波動(dòng)性和隨機(jī)性而難以預(yù)測(cè)發(fā)電功率。為了防止風(fēng)電大規(guī)模接入給電網(wǎng)安全穩(wěn)定帶來的影響,制定了風(fēng)電跟蹤計(jì)劃出力能力、波動(dòng)率等相關(guān)的規(guī)定。由于預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù)的限制,風(fēng)電預(yù)測(cè)功率仍然存在較大誤差。單純通過對(duì)風(fēng)電的控制提高其跟蹤計(jì)劃出力能力具有困難性,儲(chǔ)能為提高風(fēng)電跟蹤計(jì)劃出力能力提供了可能性。為了最大程度地提高風(fēng)電跟蹤計(jì)劃出力能力,本文基于超短期風(fēng)電預(yù)測(cè)功率,建立了包含5個(gè)控制系數(shù)的儲(chǔ)能系統(tǒng)充放電控制策略,并提出了利用粒子群優(yōu)化算法實(shí)時(shí)優(yōu)化儲(chǔ)能系統(tǒng)充放電控制系數(shù)的方法,以減少日前短期風(fēng)電預(yù)測(cè)誤差。以典型風(fēng)電場(chǎng)為例進(jìn)行仿真分析,對(duì)固定系數(shù)方法及滾動(dòng)優(yōu)化系數(shù)方法進(jìn)行了比較,并分析了影響預(yù)測(cè)精度的因素,結(jié)果驗(yàn)證了所提方法的可行性。由于多類型儲(chǔ)能相較于單類型儲(chǔ)能具有優(yōu)勢(shì),本文建立了目標(biāo)功率在功率型儲(chǔ)能和能量型儲(chǔ)能之間的分配原則,并且通過模糊控制原理對(duì)功率型儲(chǔ)能的功率進(jìn)行了相關(guān)的優(yōu)化控制。通過算例將多類型儲(chǔ)能提高風(fēng)電跟蹤計(jì)劃出力的控制效果與同等容量的單類型儲(chǔ)能相對(duì)比。結(jié)果表明。多類型儲(chǔ)能能夠充分結(jié)合兩種類型儲(chǔ)能的優(yōu)點(diǎn),更大程度的提高風(fēng)電跟蹤計(jì)劃出力能力,降低風(fēng)電接入對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)安全穩(wěn)定的影響。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the power system is in a period of rapid development and a critical transition period. Wind power generation has been rapidly developed due to the advantages of environmental protection, and the expansion rate has been very rapid in the past few years.However, it is difficult to predict the generation power due to the volatility and randomness of wind power generation.In order to prevent the impact of large-scale wind power access on the safety and stability of the power grid, the wind power tracking planning capacity, volatility and other relevant regulations are formulated.Due to the limitation of prediction technology, there are still large errors in wind power prediction.It is difficult to improve the ability of tracking and planning output by controlling wind power, and energy storage provides the possibility for improving the ability of wind power tracking.In order to improve the capacity of wind power tracking, a charging and discharging control strategy of energy storage system with five control coefficients is established based on the prediction of power of ultra-short term wind power.A method of real-time optimizing the charge and discharge control coefficient of energy storage system using particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed in order to reduce the prediction error of short-term wind power before the day.Taking the typical wind farm as an example, the fixed coefficient method and the rolling optimization coefficient method are compared, and the factors influencing the prediction accuracy are analyzed. The results show that the proposed method is feasible.Because of the superiority of multi-type energy storage over single type energy storage, the distribution principle of target power between power-type energy storage and energy-type energy storage is established in this paper.The power of power storage is optimized by fuzzy control theory.The control effect of multi-type energy storage is compared with that of single-type energy storage of the same capacity.The results show that.Multi-type energy storage can fully combine the advantages of two types of energy storage, improve the ability of wind power tracking planning to a greater extent, reduce the impact of wind power access on the safety and stability of power system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TM614

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