本文選題：盒式集合　切入點：隨機變量分布信息　出處：《長沙理工大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：考慮到大多數(shù)徑流式小水電都具有無庫容、調(diào)節(jié)能力差、出力大小由天然來水量決定的特征,而這些因素容易導致系統(tǒng)機組頻繁的調(diào)節(jié),使系統(tǒng)的運行方式發(fā)生變化。因此,合理計劃并網(wǎng)徑流式小水電系統(tǒng)的最小切負荷量問題,對正確制定含不確定因素的電網(wǎng)調(diào)度方案具有重要的意義。文章介紹了小水電的國內(nèi)外研究發(fā)展狀態(tài)、徑流式小水電的出力特點,分析了其并網(wǎng)后對系統(tǒng)的影響。在綜合對比分析處理不確定性因素的多種概率統(tǒng)計學方法的優(yōu)缺點的基礎上,針對不確定因素引入分別采用盒式不確定集、橢球式不確定集與基于隨機變量分布信息的處理隨機性問題的魯棒線性優(yōu)化方法,同時闡述了對模型化簡的對偶理論；根據(jù)魯棒線性優(yōu)化方法無需提前已知不確定量的概率分布函數(shù)的優(yōu)勢,以徑流式小水電站的出力作為隨機變量,考慮以盒式不確定集描述徑流式小水電出力的特征、利用隨機變量分布信息描述徑流式小水電系統(tǒng)出力的不確定性。將上述的不確定量轉化為確定量,建立了在系統(tǒng)運行約束條件下的計及徑流式小水電的電力系統(tǒng)的最小切負荷模型。為使模型便于求解,應用對偶理論將上述模型轉化為一般線性規(guī)劃模型。通過對徑流式小水電系統(tǒng)接入某個46節(jié)點系統(tǒng),應用對隨機變量處理方式不同的基于盒式集合與基于隨機變量分布信息的魯棒線性優(yōu)化方法進行仿真計算、分析比較。前者的仿真結果表明,徑流式小水電系統(tǒng)出力的不確定性對系統(tǒng)最小切負荷量的存在明顯影響；徑流式小水電站出力估計值的擾動范圍不同,其接入地點的差異等因素都會導致全網(wǎng)最小切負荷量的變化；在后者的仿真過程中設定了兩種不同的方案,方案一結果表明,對不確定參數(shù)的處理方式不同會導致全網(wǎng)最小切負荷量的變化,該模型不僅可以得到最安全的切負荷方案,還能得到多個介于高經(jīng)濟性和強可靠性之間的切負荷方案,可以實行電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃問題中的靈活決策。方案二結果表明,單獨改變系統(tǒng)中某一節(jié)點的接入徑流式小水電站容量的大小,由于不同節(jié)點敏感度的不同,可能會導致系統(tǒng)的最小切負荷的變化；但當擾動小時,改變節(jié)點接入的容量值,并不會使系統(tǒng)的最小切負荷量變化。因此,魯棒線性優(yōu)化理論能客觀地權衡不同切負荷方案下系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃方案的抉擇,為輸電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃方案的選擇提供了理論基礎。
[Abstract]:Considering that most small runoff hydropower have the characteristics of no storage capacity, poor regulating capacity, and the output force is determined by the natural water quantity, these factors can easily lead to frequent regulation of the system units and make the operation mode of the system change. The problem of minimum load shedding of small hydropower system connected to grid by reasonable planning is of great significance for correctly formulating the power network dispatching scheme with uncertain factors. This paper introduces the research and development status of small hydropower at home and abroad. On the basis of comprehensive comparison and analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of various probabilistic statistical methods for dealing with uncertain factors, the characteristics of runoff small hydropower power generation and its influence on the system after being connected to the grid are analyzed. This paper introduces a robust linear optimization method to deal with stochastic problems based on the information of random variable distribution by using box-type uncertainty set ellipsoidal uncertainty set and stochastic variable distribution information respectively. At the same time the dual theory of model simplification is expounded. According to the advantage of robust linear optimization method which does not need to know the probability distribution function of uncertainty in advance, taking the output force of small runoff hydropower station as random variable, the boxed uncertainty set is considered to describe the characteristics of runoff type small hydropower output. The uncertainty of runoff small hydropower system is described by random variable distribution information. In this paper, a minimum load shedding model of power system with small runoff hydropower is established under the condition of system operation constraint. In order to make the model easy to solve, The above model is transformed into a general linear programming model by using duality theory. A 46 node system is connected to a runoff small hydropower system. The robust linear optimization method based on cassette set and random variable distribution information is simulated and compared with that of random variable processing. The simulation results of the former show that, The uncertainty of the output force of the runoff type small hydropower system has obvious influence on the minimum shedding load of the system, and the disturbance range of the estimated output value of the runoff type small hydropower station is different. The difference of access location and other factors will lead to the change of the minimum shedding load of the whole network, and two different schemes are set up in the simulation of the latter. The results of scheme one show that, Different processing methods of uncertain parameters will lead to the change of minimum shedding load in the whole network. The model can not only obtain the safest load shedding scheme, but also obtain several load shedding schemes between high economy and strong reliability. It is possible to implement flexible decision making in power network planning. The result of scheme two shows that the sensitivity of different nodes is different when changing the capacity of small hydropower station with access runoff of one node in the system alone. It may result in a change in the minimum shedding load of the system; however, when the disturbance is small, changing the value of the node access capacity does not change the minimum shedding load of the system. Robust linear optimization theory can objectively weigh the choice of system planning schemes under different load cutting schemes, which provides a theoretical basis for the selection of transmission network planning schemes.
【學位授予單位】：長沙理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV747;TM715

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本文編號：1597875