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  本文選題：增強態(tài)勢感知　切入點：安全性綜合評估　出處：《天津大學》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：態(tài)勢感知是提高電網自愈(Self-healing)功能和抗擾能力(Robustness)的關鍵。隨著大規(guī)模連鎖停電事故頻繁發(fā)生和大規(guī)模風電的接入，安全性評估作為態(tài)勢感知的核心分析工具面臨著諸多挑戰(zhàn)。本文以安全域方法學的研究成果為基礎，圍繞面向增強態(tài)勢感知的輸電系統(tǒng)安全性綜合評估展開了研究。 首先，研究了在注入功率空間上保證含雙饋風機(DFIG)電力系統(tǒng)暫態(tài)穩(wěn)定性的動態(tài)安全域(以下簡稱含DFIG的動態(tài)安全域)。通過大量暫態(tài)穩(wěn)定仿真發(fā)現，在工程關心的范圍內，含DFIG的動態(tài)安全域的邊界仍可用一個或少數幾個超平面表達式近似表示，其精度可滿足工程實際需要。該研究結果使安全域方法的優(yōu)越性在風電接入后的安全性監(jiān)視與分析中進一步凸顯，使其可作為面向增強態(tài)勢感知的安全性監(jiān)視、評估與控制的強有力的工具。 其次，給出了安全轉移概率的解析計算方法，證實了安全轉移概率的有效性�；诔矫嫘问降陌踩蜻吔绲谋磉_式將安全轉移概率計算中涉及的復雜體積分極大程度地簡化，結合以半不變量為基礎的級數展開法加以計算。該解析計算方法保證計算精度的同時，，計算速度快，為在安全性分析中計及風電和負荷等引起的節(jié)點注入不確定性提供了有效途徑。同時指出所確定的安全轉移概率不僅是最終的概率的靜態(tài)和動態(tài)安全性綜合評估的馬爾可夫模型狀態(tài)轉移概率矩陣元素的重要成分，而且它本身就可作為評估系統(tǒng)安全性的有效指標，輔助運行人員監(jiān)測系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)以提前做好預防措施。 再次，提出一個快速形成馬爾可夫模型狀態(tài)轉移概率矩陣的方法�；谠顟B(tài)轉移率矩陣和系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)數組提出快速計算狀態(tài)轉移率的方法，并歸納出系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)轉移概率矩陣中非零元素的分布規(guī)律，進而快速實現系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)轉移概率矩陣的稀疏存儲。對于兩狀態(tài)元件組成的系統(tǒng)，可基于給定的系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)排序和服務狀態(tài)集數組進一步提高計算效率。該方法的計算速度與應用規(guī)模均優(yōu)于現有方法，為運用馬爾可夫模型分析電網等大規(guī)模系統(tǒng)提供了有利工具。 最后，完善了二層系統(tǒng)模型以計及風電的接入，以此為基礎通過安全域和馬爾可夫模型建立了概率的靜態(tài)和動態(tài)安全性綜合評估。模型計及了網絡拓撲狀態(tài)間的轉移、系統(tǒng)的可再生能力、風電和負荷的不確定性、靜態(tài)和動態(tài)安全性約束，以及天氣和自然災害等因素的影響，通過求解一組線性向量微分方程獲得“到不安全時間”及其概率分布實現了對系統(tǒng)未來狀態(tài)的有效估計并估算出可用于采取措施的時間。制定了有效的模型求解方案，首次將該模型成功應用于復雜系統(tǒng)，推進了模型的實用化進程。算例結果顯示，由于整合了諸多影響電網安全的因素，模型給出了更符合實際的評估結果，可用于評估干擾因素對系統(tǒng)安全性的影響，輔助運行人員進行決策，為增強態(tài)勢感知提供了有效的預測分析工具。
[Abstract]:Situation awareness (Self-healing) is to improve the self-healing function and anti disturbance ability (Robustness) key. With the large scale blackout occurred frequently and large-scale wind power access, safety assessment as the core of situation awareness analysis tool is facing many challenges. The results of this study to the security region methodology based on oriented enhancement comprehensive evaluation of transmission system security situation awareness is studied.
First of all, on the guarantee containing DFIG in power injection space (DFIG) dynamic security region of power system transient stability (hereinafter referred to as dynamic security domain containing DFIG). Through a large number of transient stability simulation results show that in the range of engineering is concerned, the dynamic security region of DFIG containing one or the boundary is still available a few hyperplanes approximate expression that the accuracy can meet the actual needs of the project. The results of this study. The advantages of the security region method in wind power safety monitoring and analysis of access after further highlighted, which can be used as for enhanced security surveillance situation perception, a powerful tool to assess and control.
Secondly, given the analytical method for calculating security transition probability, confirmed the validity of the safe transfer probability. The expression boundary hyperplane forms based on the safe transfer of simplified probability calculation of complex volume relates to the great extent, combined with the series with a semi invariant based expansion method to calculate the analytical calculation method. To ensure the accuracy and calculation speed, which provides an effective way for nodes with wind power and load analysis in safety into uncertainty. The safe transfer probability is not only an important component of the final state Markov model the probability of static and dynamic security assessment of transtion-probablity matrix elements at the same time points out, and it itself can be used as an effective index to evaluate the security of the system, the auxiliary operation personnel monitoring system to advance the prevention measures. Shi.
Again, put forward a method of rapid formation of Markov model state transtion-probablity matrix element. The state transition rate matrix and system state array fast calculation method proposed based on state transfer rate, and summed up the system state transition probability matrix of nonzero elements in the distribution rule, and then quickly realize the sparse storage system state transtion-probablity matrix. For the two state system components, system state sort and service status based on the given set of array to further improve computational efficiency. The calculation speed and scale of application the method is superior to the existing methods, providing a favorable tool for using the Markov model analysis of power grid and other large-scale systems.
Finally, to improve the two layer system model to account and access of wind power, on the basis of the security domain and Markov model to establish the probability of static and dynamic security assessment model. And the transfer network topology between the system of renewable capacity, wind power and load uncertainty, static and dynamic security constraints, influence factors and weather and natural disasters, "to secure time" and its probability distribution can effectively estimate the future status of the system and estimate can be used to take measures in time by solving a set of linear vector differential equations has been developed. The effective solving scheme of the model for the first time, this model is successful applied to the complex system, promote the practicability of the model. The simulation results show that the influence factors of integrated network security model, gives a more realistic assessment. It can be used to assess the impact of interference factors on the security of the system, assist the operators to make decisions, and provide an effective prediction and analysis tool for the enhancement of situational awareness.

【學位授予單位】：天津大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM72

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