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  本文選題：風險評估　切入點：檢修方式　出處：《華南理工大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：電力設(shè)備檢修是供電企業(yè)日常運行的重要工作，檢修期間電網(wǎng)的設(shè)備冗余度明顯下降，致使電網(wǎng)運行風險增加，給系統(tǒng)的安全穩(wěn)定和可靠供電帶來更嚴峻挑戰(zhàn)。因此，研究檢修方式下的地區(qū)電網(wǎng)運行風險評估方法，客觀準確地識別設(shè)備檢修對系統(tǒng)運行風險的影響，在此基礎(chǔ)上為制定風險應(yīng)對策略降低系統(tǒng)在檢修期間的運行風險，具有重要的意義。在此前提下，本文作了如下工作： 針對地區(qū)電網(wǎng)和檢修方式的風險特征，首先定義相應(yīng)的運行風險指標體系，分系統(tǒng)、區(qū)域兩個層面以及節(jié)點失壓和支路過載兩個維度描述系統(tǒng)的風險。然后介紹檢修方式下地區(qū)電網(wǎng)運行風險評估方法。采用狀態(tài)枚舉法實現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)選擇，然后進行計及天氣因素和設(shè)備負載率因素的故障概率值計算。風險后果嚴重程度值計算綜合采用孤島檢測失壓分析、備自投裝置動作分析、潮流計算和基于靈敏度分析的N-1斷線潮流計算等方法，，使風險評估結(jié)果更高效準確。在綜合概率值和風險后果的基礎(chǔ)上實現(xiàn)檢修方式下系統(tǒng)的風險評估。為提高評估效率，采用檢修影響區(qū)域定位縮小故障集從而減小系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)空間和計算規(guī)模。 對地區(qū)電網(wǎng)進行檢修方式下的運行風險評估旨在更好的認識系統(tǒng)存在的風險，同時分析其風險變化產(chǎn)生的原因，掌握設(shè)備檢修對系統(tǒng)風險影響的規(guī)律，從而為系統(tǒng)運行人員采取控制措施應(yīng)對風險變化提供決策支持。文中采用基于風險分析的負荷轉(zhuǎn)供方案優(yōu)選和考慮負荷轉(zhuǎn)供的設(shè)備過載風險控制策略兩個手段應(yīng)對檢修方式下系統(tǒng)的風險變化。 開發(fā)了相應(yīng)的適應(yīng)地區(qū)電網(wǎng)的運行風險評估和決策輔助系統(tǒng)，并投入電網(wǎng)實際運行，能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)檢修方式下電網(wǎng)運行風險的高效準確評估，生成相應(yīng)的風險控制策略，為調(diào)度運行人員提供可靠決策參考。
[Abstract]:Maintenance and repair of power equipment is an important work in the daily operation of power supply enterprises. During the period of maintenance, the redundancy of power network equipment decreases obviously, which increases the risk of power grid operation and brings more serious challenges to the security, stability and reliable power supply of the power supply system. This paper studies the risk assessment method of regional power network operation under maintenance mode, identifies objectively and accurately the influence of equipment maintenance on system operation risk, and on this basis, reduces the operational risk during the maintenance period in order to formulate the risk response strategy. It is of great significance. Under this premise, this paper has done the following work:. According to the risk characteristics of regional power network and maintenance mode, the corresponding operational risk index system and sub-system are first defined. The risk of the system is described by two dimensions of the area and node voltage loss and branch overload. Then, the risk assessment method of regional power network operation under overhaul mode is introduced, and the system state selection is realized by the state enumeration method. Then, the probability value of failure considering weather factor and equipment load rate factor is calculated. The risk consequence severity value is calculated synthetically by islanding detection and voltage loss analysis, and the operation analysis of the automatic throwing device is carried out. The methods of power flow calculation and N-1 power flow calculation based on sensitivity analysis make the results of risk assessment more efficient and accurate. Based on the comprehensive probability value and risk consequence, the system risk assessment is realized under the maintenance mode. The system state space and calculation scale are reduced by reducing the fault set by using the maintenance impact area location. The operation risk assessment under the maintenance mode of regional power grid aims to better understand the risks existing in the system, at the same time, analyze the causes of the risk changes, and grasp the law of the influence of equipment maintenance on the system risk. In order to provide decision support for system operators to take control measures to deal with risk changes, this paper adopts two methods: the optimal selection of load transfer scheme based on risk analysis and the risk control strategy of equipment overload considering load transfer. Change the risk of the system under the maintenance mode. The corresponding risk assessment and decision support system for regional power network is developed and put into actual operation, which can realize the efficient and accurate evaluation of the operation risk under the maintenance mode, and generate the corresponding risk control strategy. Provide reliable decision reference for dispatcher.
【學位授予單位】：華南理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM732

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