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基于風電接納空間電量回歸模型的棄風率快速計算方法

發(fā)布時間:2018-04-26 20:47

  本文選題:接納空間電量 + 棄風率 ; 參考:《電網(wǎng)技術(shù)》2017年01期


【摘要】:近年來,風電發(fā)展迅速,棄風也日益增多,對電網(wǎng)棄風率做出快速準確評估對指導(dǎo)新能源開發(fā)規(guī)劃、制訂常規(guī)電源年/月發(fā)電計劃具有重要意義。提出了一種評估未來電網(wǎng)風電接納能力和棄風情況的新方法。文中以一段時間的接納空間電量來衡量此時間段的電網(wǎng)接納風電能力,經(jīng)理論分析、回歸修正,得到接納空間電量與備用率、負荷率、負荷電量、常規(guī)機組最小出力系數(shù)的計算模型。然后,分析棄風率與風電理論電量占接納空間電量比例的關(guān)系,經(jīng)曲線擬合得到棄風率與該比例的分段線性函數(shù)。最后,以接納空間電量為橋梁,得到棄風率與備用率、負荷率、負荷電量、常規(guī)機組最小技術(shù)出力系數(shù)、風電理論電量的計算模型。利用該方法,算例中評估了我國北部某3個省份2015年的棄風率,與時序生產(chǎn)模擬的對比驗證了所提方法的有效性。并定義棄風壓力指數(shù)作為風電優(yōu)先調(diào)度難度的評估指標。
[Abstract]:In recent years, wind power has developed rapidly and abandoned wind has been increasing day by day. It is of great significance to make a rapid and accurate evaluation of grid wind abandonment rate to guide the new energy development planning and to formulate the annual / monthly generation plan of conventional power supply. In this paper, a new method for evaluating the wind power acceptance and wind rejection in the future power grid is presented. In this paper, the capacity of accepting wind power in this period of time is measured by a period of time. Through theoretical analysis and regression correction, the capacity of receiving space electricity and reserve rate, load rate and load capacity are obtained. The calculation model of minimum output coefficient of conventional units. Then, the relationship between the wind abandonment rate and the proportion of the theoretical electricity quantity to the accepted space is analyzed, and the piecewise linear function between the abandoned wind rate and the proportion is obtained by curve fitting. Finally, taking the space electric quantity as the bridge, the calculation model of abandoned wind rate and reserve rate, load rate, load electricity quantity, minimum technical output coefficient of conventional unit and theoretical power quantity of wind power are obtained. By using this method, the wind abandonment rate of three provinces in the north of China in 2015 is evaluated, and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by comparison with the time series production simulation. The abandoned wind pressure index is defined as the evaluation index of wind power priority dispatching difficulty.
【作者單位】: 新能源與儲能運行控制國家重點實驗室(中國電力科學研究院);
【分類號】:TM72

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本文編號:1807573


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