本文選題：風(fēng)電出力預(yù)測(cè)　切入點(diǎn)：負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)　出處：《運(yùn)籌與管理》2017年05期

【摘要】：充分考慮了風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)和負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)不確定性,引入凈負(fù)荷的概念,實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)風(fēng)電和負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)誤差發(fā)生概率的綜合考慮。通過(guò)場(chǎng)景概率的研究,以包括確定性成本和隨機(jī)性成本在內(nèi)的綜合調(diào)度成本最小化為目標(biāo)函數(shù),構(gòu)建安全經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行模型。算例分析表明,本文構(gòu)建的隨機(jī)安全運(yùn)行計(jì)劃模型相比于傳統(tǒng)的確定性模型能夠更有效地降低系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行成本,結(jié)果同時(shí)顯示,根據(jù)系統(tǒng)容量和負(fù)荷需求合理配置風(fēng)電裝機(jī)容量,是減少棄風(fēng)量、提高供電可靠性的重要手段。
[Abstract]:Considering the uncertainty of wind power grid connection and load forecasting, the concept of net load is introduced to realize the comprehensive consideration of the probability of wind power and load forecasting error. Taking the minimization of comprehensive scheduling cost, including deterministic cost and stochastic cost, as the objective function, a safe economic operation model is constructed. Compared with the traditional deterministic model, the stochastic safe operation planning model constructed in this paper can reduce the running cost of the system more effectively. The results also show that according to the system capacity and load requirements, the reasonable configuration of wind power installed capacity is to reduce the air volume. An important means to improve the reliability of power supply.
【作者單位】： 國(guó)網(wǎng)能源研究院;華北電力大學(xué)新能源電力系統(tǒng)國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;國(guó)網(wǎng)北京經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)研究院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(71271082) 國(guó)家電網(wǎng)公司科技項(xiàng)目(SGERI06KJ[2015]63)
【分類號(hào)】：TM614

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本文編號(hào)：1657643