發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-07 04:15

  本文選題：投入產(chǎn)出　切入點(diǎn)：復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論　出處：《江蘇大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：為了應(yīng)對(duì)全球氣候變化,大幅度減少化石能源消費(fèi)及相應(yīng)的碳排放,國(guó)際社會(huì)制定了許多能源和環(huán)境政策。然而,全球區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展存在著差異性,目前能源和環(huán)境方案的制定缺乏對(duì)全球區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展差異的考慮,無(wú)法兼顧節(jié)能減排的公平與效率,因此,識(shí)別各區(qū)域碳流動(dòng)的關(guān)鍵部門(mén)對(duì)于制定科學(xué)的能源和環(huán)境方案,對(duì)實(shí)現(xiàn)節(jié)能環(huán)保目標(biāo)以及兼顧節(jié)能減排的公平與效率具有重要的意義。電力行業(yè)是碳排放和碳減排的重要領(lǐng)域之一,以中國(guó)為例,電力行業(yè)是中國(guó)碳排放的重要來(lái)源,對(duì)其征收碳稅是實(shí)現(xiàn)節(jié)能減排目標(biāo)的有效政策手段。然而對(duì)電力行業(yè)征收碳稅必然會(huì)影響電力市場(chǎng)的穩(wěn)定,因此有必要分析碳稅對(duì)電力市場(chǎng)的影響。本文基于全球多區(qū)域投入產(chǎn)出表,結(jié)合復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論,構(gòu)建了包含七大區(qū)域及35個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)部門(mén)的CO_2間接流動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,分析了1999年、2004年和2009年六大區(qū)域的碳強(qiáng)度變化,發(fā)現(xiàn)隨著時(shí)間的變化,中國(guó)的碳強(qiáng)度在6個(gè)區(qū)域中一直處于最高地位。其次,根據(jù)復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)中三個(gè)重要的指標(biāo),即度與度分布、聚類(lèi)系數(shù)以及介數(shù)中心性,確定了CO_2間接流動(dòng)的關(guān)鍵部門(mén),討論了可能的能源及環(huán)境政策建議。通過(guò)分析復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)中三個(gè)重要的指標(biāo),發(fā)現(xiàn)本文的三個(gè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)在一定范圍內(nèi)服從冪律分布,即少部分的部門(mén)排放了大部分的CO_2,而大部分的部門(mén)排放了少部分的CO_2。其中,電力天然氣及水供應(yīng)業(yè)、交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)以及金屬礦產(chǎn)業(yè)是各個(gè)區(qū)域中CO_2間接排放量較大的部門(mén),應(yīng)該對(duì)這些部門(mén)嚴(yán)格監(jiān)控以減少其碳排放。為了研究碳稅對(duì)電力市場(chǎng)的影響,本文通過(guò)建立電力生產(chǎn)博弈模型,分析了三寡頭壟斷下的電力生產(chǎn)模型中發(fā)電商電力產(chǎn)量調(diào)整速度、政府允許的最高電價(jià)以及與碳稅系數(shù)這三個(gè)因素對(duì)電力市場(chǎng)的影響。經(jīng)過(guò)研究發(fā)現(xiàn),當(dāng)發(fā)電商發(fā)電產(chǎn)量調(diào)整過(guò)快、政府允許的最高電價(jià)過(guò)高或者政府征收的碳稅系數(shù)過(guò)大或過(guò)小時(shí),都容易影響電力市場(chǎng)的穩(wěn)定。為了避免電力市場(chǎng)陷入混沌狀態(tài),發(fā)電商以及政府應(yīng)該根據(jù)實(shí)際情況制定合理有效的措施,將碳稅控制在合適的范圍。
[Abstract]:In order to cope with global climate change and greatly reduce the consumption of fossil energy and the corresponding carbon emissions, the international community has formulated many energy and environmental policies. However, there are differences in the development of global regional economy. The current development of energy and environment programmes lacks consideration of the differences in global regional economic development and does not balance equity and efficiency in energy conservation and emission reduction, and therefore the identification of key sectors of carbon flows across regions contributes to the development of scientific energy and environmental programmes, The electric power industry is one of the important fields of carbon emission and carbon emission reduction. Taking China as an example, the power industry is an important source of carbon emissions in China. The imposition of carbon tax is an effective policy means to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction. However, the imposition of carbon tax on the electricity industry will inevitably affect the stability of the electricity market. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the impact of carbon tax on the electricity market. Based on the global multi-region input-output table and the complex network theory, this paper constructs the CO_2 indirect flow network model, which includes seven regions and 35 industrial sectors. In 1999, 2004 and 2009, the changes of carbon intensity in six major regions are analyzed. It is found that the carbon intensity of China has been in the highest position among the six regions with the change of time. Secondly, according to the distribution of degree and degree, three important indexes in the complex network, the degree and degree distribution, are analyzed. The key sectors of indirect flow of CO_2 are identified, and possible energy and environmental policy recommendations are discussed. Three important indicators in complex networks are analyzed. It is found that the three networks in this paper are distributed according to the power law within a certain range, that is, a small number of departments discharge most of the COD 2, and most of the departments discharge a small part of the CO 2. Among them, the electricity, natural gas and water supply industry, Transportation and the metal mining industry are the major sectors of indirect CO_2 emissions in various regions, and these sectors should be strictly monitored to reduce their carbon emissions, in order to study the impact of the carbon tax on the electricity market. By establishing a game model of electric power production, this paper analyzes the speed of power output adjustment in the electricity production model under the monopoly of three oligarchs. The effects of three factors, the maximum electricity price allowed by the government and the carbon tax coefficient, on the electricity market. The high maximum electricity price allowed by the government or the excessive or excessive carbon tax coefficient imposed by the government can easily affect the stability of the electricity market. Electricity producers and governments should work out reasonable and effective measures to keep the carbon tax within the appropriate range.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江蘇大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.61;O157.5

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