【摘要】：陜西省是西北地區(qū)的交通樞紐城市,省內(nèi)的高速及干線公路連通廣大西部地區(qū)。陜北地處特殊的黃土高原地區(qū),氣候季節(jié)性差異較大,地形復(fù)雜,常發(fā)生多種公路邊坡地質(zhì)災(zāi)害,且損失較嚴(yán)重。因此對陜北公路邊坡地質(zhì)災(zāi)害(崩塌、滑坡)的危險性,進(jìn)行定量評價很有必要。在總結(jié)國內(nèi)外學(xué)者和經(jīng)實(shí)地調(diào)研的基礎(chǔ)上,依托陜西省干線公路“災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù)庫”資料,分析災(zāi)害發(fā)生的特征和規(guī)律。針對地質(zhì)條件、幾何特征、環(huán)境因素、破壞特征和其他特征這五個影響因素,組建了由17個指標(biāo)組成的評價體系。結(jié)合SPSS20.0軟件技術(shù),以陜北為例,先對各定性評價指標(biāo)重新編碼,再進(jìn)行K-均值聚類分析,將隱患邊坡分為6類。選擇類型2和類型3的隱患邊坡,進(jìn)行因子分析,得到公因子的計算模型及其權(quán)重。從這兩大類型中分別抽取90%的邊坡數(shù)據(jù),經(jīng)多次試算;針對每一類別,由因子旋轉(zhuǎn)矩陣,得到從指標(biāo)體系中提取出較為獨(dú)立的6個公因子;由因子得分系數(shù)矩陣,得出6個公因子計算模型;并將公因子對應(yīng)的方差貢獻(xiàn)率作為權(quán)重。建立類型2和類型3各自的評價模型并進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)。由模型計算出參與建模的90%邊坡的危險值,經(jīng)歸一化處理后,依據(jù)危險值累積頻率柱狀圖的特征和經(jīng)現(xiàn)場確認(rèn),將兩個類別統(tǒng)一的分為五個危險等級,并確定分級范圍,具體分為:極高(0.9,1.0)、高度(0.7,0.9)、中度(0.5,0.7)、低度(0.3,0.5)和極低危險(0.0,0.3)。最后對剩余未參與建模的10%邊坡的危險性,代入模型評價,并經(jīng)實(shí)例驗(yàn)證,對照實(shí)際的邊坡危險狀況,評價結(jié)果與實(shí)際相符。本研究為陜西省公路邊坡的災(zāi)害預(yù)警預(yù)測提供指導(dǎo),為進(jìn)一步的風(fēng)險評價奠定基礎(chǔ),是定量性評價方法的一次有益嘗試。
[Abstract]:Shaanxi Province is a transportation hub city in Northwest China. The highway and trunk roads in the province connect the vast western region. North Shaanxi is located in the special loess plateau region, the climate is different, the terrain is complex, many kinds of highway slope geological disasters often occur, and the loss is serious. Therefore, it is necessary to quantitatively evaluate the risk of slope geological hazards (collapse, landslide) in northern Shaanxi Province. Based on the summary of domestic and foreign scholars and on-the-spot investigation, the characteristics and rules of disaster occurrence are analyzed on the basis of the "disaster database" data of Shaanxi Province trunk roads. According to the five influencing factors of geological conditions, geometric characteristics, environmental factors, destruction characteristics and other characteristics, an evaluation system consisting of 17 indexes was established. Combined with SPSS20.0 software technology, taking the north of Shaanxi as an example, the qualitative evaluation indexes are re-coded first, then K-means clustering analysis is carried out, and the hidden slope is divided into 6 categories. The hidden danger slope of type 2 and type 3 is selected and the calculation model of common factor and its weight are obtained by factor analysis. 90% of the slope data are extracted from these two types and calculated several times. According to each category, six independent common factors are extracted from the index system by the rotation matrix of factors. Based on the factor score coefficient matrix, six common factor calculation models are obtained, and the variance contribution rate corresponding to the common factor is taken as the weight. The evaluation models of type 2 and type 3 were established and tested. The hazard values of 90% of the slopes involved in modeling are calculated by the model. After normalization, according to the characteristics of the cumulative frequency histogram of the hazard values and the field confirmation, the two categories are uniformly divided into five hazard grades and the classification range is determined. The results were as follows: extremely high (0.9, 1.0), height (0.7,0.9), moderate (0.5,0.7), low degree (0.3,0.5) and extremely low risk (0.0,0.3). Finally, the risk of the remaining 10% slope which is not involved in the modeling is evaluated by the model, and verified by an example, the evaluation result is consistent with the actual situation of the slope hazard. This study provides guidance for early warning and prediction of highway slope disaster in Shaanxi Province and lays a foundation for further risk assessment. It is a useful attempt of quantitative evaluation method.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U416.14

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