【摘要】：隨著我國綜合國力的不斷增強,隧道的建設越來越多,然而由于隧道工程隱蔽性、復雜性和不確定性等特點,隧道工程事故屢屢發(fā)生,且后果嚴重。為減少施工中的人員傷亡和經(jīng)濟損失,保證隧道的安全施工,對隧道施工過程進行風險評價尤為重要。本文結合已有資料和文獻對事故發(fā)生機理和風險分析的基本理論進行分析,從而確定引起事故發(fā)生的因素,為風險評價指標體系的建立提供方法和依據(jù),建立較為全面的隧道施工風險評價的指標體系。傳統(tǒng)的層次分析法在隧道施工風險評價過程中具有定性分析和定量分析相結合的特點,同時針對層析分析法在確定風險指標權重值所存在的離散性和不均衡性,本文采用分組變權的方法對由專家調查問卷所得到的風險指標常權重值進行聚類分析,利用分組變權法計算分組變權系數(shù)值。從而滿足了隧道施工風險評價模型對風險指標均衡性的要求。最后以中天山隧道為工程背景,采用上述方法對隧道施工過程中存在的風險進行分析評價,建立隧道施工風險評價模型。計算結果表明,對層次分析法中的指標權重值采用分組變權進行改進可以更好體現(xiàn)風險評價模型對指標間均衡性的要求,使風險評價結果更具真實性、合理性。
[Abstract]:With the continuous enhancement of our country's comprehensive national strength, more and more tunnels are built. However, due to the characteristics of concealment, complexity and uncertainty of tunnel engineering, tunnel engineering accidents often occur and the consequences are serious. In order to reduce the casualties and economic losses and ensure the safe construction of the tunnel, it is very important to evaluate the risk of the tunnel construction process. In this paper, the mechanism of accident and the basic theory of risk analysis are analyzed in combination with the existing data and literature, so as to determine the factors causing the accident, and provide the method and basis for the establishment of the risk evaluation index system. Establish a more comprehensive tunnel construction risk evaluation index system. The traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has the characteristics of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis in the process of tunnel construction risk evaluation. At the same time, aiming at the discreteness and unbalance of chromatographic analysis in determining the weight value of risk index, In this paper, the method of grouping variable weight is used to analyze the constant weight value of risk index obtained from expert questionnaire, and the group variable weight method is used to calculate the value of grouping variable weight coefficient. Thus meet the tunnel construction risk evaluation model for the risk index balance requirements. Finally, taking Zhongtianshan Tunnel as the engineering background, the risk of tunnel construction is analyzed and evaluated by using the above method, and the risk evaluation model of tunnel construction is established. The calculation results show that the improvement of index weight value by grouping variable weight in AHP can better reflect the requirement of equilibrium between indexes in the risk assessment model and make the risk evaluation result more authentic and reasonable.
【學位授予單位】：石家莊鐵道大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U455.1

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本文編號：2149433