本文選題：出行行為 + 有限理性��； 參考：《大連理工大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：出行者作為城市交通系統(tǒng)的主體,其出行行為影響整個網(wǎng)絡的運行效果。傳統(tǒng)的出行行為研究通常假定出行者是絕對理性的,其決策行為遵循效用理論,以出行阻抗最小或者效用最大作為決策依據(jù),很少考慮出行者的有限理性特點。本文以出行者的出行行為為研究對象,結(jié)合問卷調(diào)查標定前景理論的參數(shù)體系,在有限理性的框架下討論方式選擇和路徑選擇行為,并建立方式劃分和交通分配組合模型,最后通過算例分析組合模型的特點、出行者參考點依賴效應以及模型參數(shù)的敏感性。本文首先明確了有限理性的概念,詳細介紹了前景理論和TODIM方法的基本觀點以及相關研究和應用。隨后對比了前景理論中不同函數(shù)形式的差異,分析了前景理論各個參數(shù)的內(nèi)涵,將出行者或者出行情景按照風險水平高低劃分為3類,并通過問卷調(diào)查得到了前景理論在出行路徑選擇問題中的參數(shù)體系,同時驗證了該參數(shù)體系的有效性。緊接著結(jié)合離散選擇模型和TODIM方法提出了有限理性條件下的方式劃分模型,結(jié)合離散選擇模型和前景理論提出了有限理性條件下的隨機交通分配模型,最終在有限理性的基礎之上提出了改進的方式劃分和交通分配組合模型。最后,利用Nguyen Dupuis網(wǎng)絡作為算例,驗證組合模型的有效性研究結(jié)果表明,組合模型能夠體現(xiàn)總出行需求對私家車出行選擇概率的影響,兩者呈負相關的關系；私家車的實際出行需求、出行者對不同路徑的感知具有明顯的參考點依賴效應,而出行者路徑選擇行為的參考點依賴效應不顯著；私家車的實際出行需求隨著參數(shù)θ的增大而減小,各條路徑之間的差異隨著參數(shù)κ的增大而增大,參數(shù)θ可在(0,6)中取值,參數(shù)K可在(0,1)之間取值。
[Abstract]:As the main body of the urban transportation system, the traveler's travel behavior affects the operation effect of the whole network. The traditional study of travel behavior usually assumes that the traveler is absolutely rational, and its decision-making behavior follows the utility theory, and takes the minimum or maximum utility as the decision basis, and seldom considers the limited rationality of the traveler. In this paper, the travelers' travel behavior is taken as the research object, combined with the parameter system of the calibration foreground theory of questionnaire survey, the behavior of mode selection and path selection is discussed under the framework of finite rationality, and the combination model of mode division and traffic assignment is established. Finally, the characteristics of the combined model, the effect of traveller reference point dependence and the sensitivity of the model parameters are analyzed. In this paper, the concept of bounded rationality is defined, and the basic viewpoints of foreground theory and TODIM method are introduced in detail, as well as the related research and application. Then, the paper compares the differences of different function forms in foreground theory, analyzes the connotation of the parameters of foreground theory, and classifies traveler or trip scenarios into three categories according to the level of risk. The parameter system of the prospect theory in the travel path selection problem is obtained by questionnaire survey, and the validity of the parameter system is verified at the same time. Then, combining the discrete selection model and TODIM method, the mode partitioning model under the condition of finite rationality is proposed, and the stochastic traffic assignment model under the condition of finite rationality is proposed by combining the discrete selection model and the prospect theory. Finally, an improved method partition and traffic allocation combination model is proposed on the basis of finite rationality. Finally, the Nguyen Dupuis network is used as an example to verify the validity of the combined model. The results show that the combined model can reflect the impact of total travel demand on private car travel choice probability, and there is a negative correlation between the two. The actual travel demand of private cars, travelers' perception of different paths has a significant reference point dependence effect, but the pedestrian path choice behavior reference point dependence effect is not significant; The actual travel demand of private cars decreases with the increase of parameter 胃, and the difference between different paths increases with the increase of parameter 魏. The parameter 胃 can be selected in the 0 ~ (6) parameter, and the parameter K can be taken between 0 ~ 0 ~ (1).
【學位授予單位】：大連理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U491.12

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前2條

1 關宏志;浦亮;;基于演化博弈理論的有限理性交通選擇行為模型[J];北京工業(yè)大學學報;2010年08期

2 張波;雋志才;林徐勛;;基于累積前景理論的出發(fā)時間選擇SDUO模型[J];管理工程學報;2013年01期

相關博士學位論文 前1條

1 張楊;不確定環(huán)境下城市交通中車輛路徑選擇研究[D];西南交通大學;2006年

，

本文編號：1847232