本文選題：換乘優(yōu)惠 + 巢式Logit模型　； 參考：《北京交通大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著社會(huì)的發(fā)展以及機(jī)動(dòng)車輛的增長(zhǎng),北京市的交通擁堵問題和環(huán)境問題日益嚴(yán)重,為解決此問題,北京市大力提倡發(fā)展高載客量、低能耗的公共交通,而經(jīng)濟(jì)手段則對(duì)發(fā)展公共交通、優(yōu)化城市結(jié)構(gòu)、保持城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要作用。本文在北京市公共交通票價(jià)調(diào)整的大背景下,通過問卷調(diào)查建立模型分析換乘優(yōu)惠政策對(duì)城市居民出行選擇行為的影響,最后根據(jù)結(jié)論提出相關(guān)政策優(yōu)化城市居民出行結(jié)構(gòu),以此更好地發(fā)展城市公共交通,緩解城市交通擁堵。 首先,本文從換乘優(yōu)惠和出行行為選擇兩個(gè)方面進(jìn)行了文獻(xiàn)綜述,在此基礎(chǔ)上總結(jié)了換乘優(yōu)惠相關(guān)研究方法及其具體體現(xiàn)形式,并對(duì)非集計(jì)模型理論中的多項(xiàng)Logit模型和巢式Logit模型進(jìn)行了推導(dǎo)并對(duì)其模型標(biāo)定及檢驗(yàn)進(jìn)行概述,在此基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)多項(xiàng)Logit模型和巢式Logit模型的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,最終選擇巢式Logit模型進(jìn)行本論文研究。 其次,在國(guó)內(nèi)外公共交通換乘優(yōu)惠的基礎(chǔ)上,提出私家車+地鐵聯(lián)乘優(yōu)惠概念,并從個(gè)人屬性、出行特征屬性、交通政策屬性、城市環(huán)境特性、出行心理特性和交通設(shè)施屬性等六個(gè)方面對(duì)城市居民出行方式選擇的影響因素進(jìn)行分析。 隨后,采用RP和SP相結(jié)合方式進(jìn)行問卷設(shè)計(jì),并從出行者個(gè)人屬性、出行特征屬性、其他因素與出行方式的關(guān)系和其他出行特征屬性四個(gè)方面對(duì)問卷數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,并在數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)基礎(chǔ)上建立城市居民出行方式與換乘選擇巢式模型。 最后,通過模型主要分析公共交通換乘優(yōu)惠幅度、私家車+地鐵停車費(fèi)和私家車+地鐵聯(lián)乘優(yōu)惠幅度對(duì)居民出行方式與換乘選擇的影響。 本文得出如下結(jié)論：從整體角度而言,公共交通換乘優(yōu)惠以及私家車+地鐵聯(lián)乘優(yōu)惠措施的實(shí)施,對(duì)于私家車直達(dá)出行者向換乘出行的轉(zhuǎn)移具有一定的積極作用。從各種優(yōu)惠的實(shí)施效果對(duì)比而言,在相同優(yōu)惠幅度下,地面公交+地鐵換乘優(yōu)惠措施對(duì)私家車直達(dá)出行者吸引較大,地面公交+地面公交次之,私家車+地鐵換乘優(yōu)惠措施對(duì)私家車直達(dá)出行者吸引力最小。從各自優(yōu)惠角度而言,當(dāng)保持公共交通換乘優(yōu)惠幅度一致時(shí),相對(duì)地面公交+地面公交,地面公交+地鐵換乘優(yōu)惠措施吸引的轉(zhuǎn)移比例更多,且換乘優(yōu)惠政策主要吸引換乘者轉(zhuǎn)移,誘發(fā)的直達(dá)出行轉(zhuǎn)移相對(duì)較少；當(dāng)私家車+地鐵的停車費(fèi)增大時(shí),私家車+地鐵出行者更多向地面公交+地鐵轉(zhuǎn)移；私家車+地鐵的聯(lián)乘優(yōu)惠更多吸引換乘出行者,且地面公交+地鐵向其轉(zhuǎn)移較多。當(dāng)實(shí)行多種換乘優(yōu)惠措施時(shí),其效果較單項(xiàng)換乘優(yōu)惠措施較為明顯,然而地面公交+地面公交的選擇比例在降低。
[Abstract]:With the development of society and the growth of motor vehicles, traffic congestion and environmental problems in Beijing are becoming more and more serious. In order to solve this problem, Beijing strongly advocates the development of public transport with high passenger capacity and low energy consumption. Economic means play an important role in the development of public transport, optimization of urban structure, and maintenance of urban sustainable development. Under the background of public transport fare adjustment in Beijing, this paper establishes a model to analyze the influence of the preferential transfer policy on the travel choice behavior of urban residents, and finally puts forward relevant policies to optimize the travel structure of urban residents. In order to better develop urban public transport, ease urban traffic congestion. First of all, this paper summarizes the related research methods and specific forms of transfer preference from two aspects: transfer preference and travel behavior choice. In addition, several Logit models and nested Logit models in disaggregate model theory are deduced, and their calibration and verification are summarized. On this basis, the advantages and disadvantages of multiple Logit models and nested Logit models are compared and analyzed. Finally, the nested Logit model is selected for this thesis. Secondly, on the basis of the domestic and foreign public transport transfer preference, the concept of private car subway couplet preference is put forward, and from the personal attribute, the travel characteristic attribute, the transportation policy attribute, the city environment characteristic, the personal attribute, the transportation policy attribute, the city environment characteristic, This paper analyzes the influencing factors of urban residents' travel mode choice from six aspects, such as travel psychological characteristics and transportation facilities attributes. Then, the questionnaire is designed by combining RP and SP, and the questionnaire data are analyzed from four aspects: personal attribute of traveler, travel characteristic attribute, relationship between other factors and travel mode and other travel characteristic attribute. On the basis of data statistics, a nested model of travel mode and transfer selection for urban residents is established. Finally, the model mainly analyzes the influence of public transport transfer rate, private car parking fee and private car subway couplet discount on residents' travel mode and transfer choice. The conclusion of this paper is as follows: from the overall point of view, the implementation of the public transport transfer concessions and the private car subway courier preferential measures has a certain positive effect on the transfer of private car direct travelers to transfer trips. From the comparison of various preferential implementation effects, under the same preferential range, the preferential measures of ground bus subway transfer are more attractive to private car direct travelers, ground bus ground public transport is the second. Private car subway transfer concessions are least attractive for private car travelers. From their respective preferential point of view, when the preferential range of public transport transfer is the same, compared with the ground public transport, the transfer rate of the ground bus subway transfer preferential measures is more than that of the ground bus. And the preferential transfer policy mainly attracts the transfer of passengers, and induces less direct transfer; when the parking fee of private car subway increases, the private car subway travelers more transfer to the ground bus subway; Private car subway couriers are more attractive to transfer passengers, and the ground bus subway transfers to it more. When a variety of preferential transfer measures are implemented, the effect is more obvious than the single transfer preferential measures, but the selection ratio of ground public transport is decreasing.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：U491.1

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