本文選題：隧道施工安全　切入點(diǎn)：風(fēng)險管理　出處：《西南交通大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著隧道工程的快速發(fā)展,隨之而來的施工風(fēng)險問題也越來越引起人們的關(guān)注,因?yàn)橐坏┦┕るA段的安全遭到破壞,不僅會帶來巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失,工人的生命安全也會受到威脅。由于隧道系統(tǒng)是一個復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng),風(fēng)險事件較多,本文應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)分析方法,將風(fēng)險系統(tǒng)劃分為塌方、涌水、瓦斯爆炸、巖爆四個子系統(tǒng),分別對各子系統(tǒng)影響因素的復(fù)雜因果關(guān)系進(jìn)行分析；運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)理論與方法,構(gòu)建符合我國隧道實(shí)際情況的系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,觀測影響因素風(fēng)險水平的動態(tài)特性。通過實(shí)證研究,模擬隧道施工的總體風(fēng)險水平,分析比較不同決策方案,直觀地預(yù)測系統(tǒng)未來危險性,為風(fēng)險管理工作提供理論依據(jù),為提高隧道施工安全管理決策的科學(xué)性和預(yù)見性提供指導(dǎo)。本文主要的研究工作與內(nèi)容如下：(1)對目前我國隧道施工安全狀況、國內(nèi)外隧道風(fēng)險管理研究現(xiàn)狀、隧道風(fēng)險管理理論等進(jìn)行歸納、總結(jié),找出隧道施工風(fēng)險研究中存在的問題。(2)運(yùn)用改進(jìn)的WBS-RBS風(fēng)險分析方法對隧道施工過程中的危險源進(jìn)行辨識,建立隧道施工風(fēng)險因素體系,并運(yùn)用層次分析法計算各風(fēng)險因素的權(quán)重。(3)運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的理論與方法,分析其因果關(guān)系,給出因果關(guān)系圖,并根據(jù)因果關(guān)系圖建立流位流率和變量集,畫出流圖,完成SD模型。(4)以成(成都)渝(重慶)客運(yùn)專線龍泉山隧道為例,對建立的系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,運(yùn)用VENSIM-PLE軟件對隧道施工系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險水平進(jìn)行預(yù)測,并根據(jù)仿真結(jié)果提出針對性的風(fēng)險防范措施。本研究旨在將系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)研究問題的思想運(yùn)用到隧道施工風(fēng)險管理中,提出一種新的研究思路,提高隧道施工風(fēng)險管理效率,降低管理成本。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of tunnel engineering, people pay more and more attention to the construction risk, because once the safety of the construction phase is damaged, it will not only bring huge economic losses. The safety of workers' lives is also threatened. Because the tunnel system is a complex system and there are many risk events, the risk system is divided into four subsystems: collapse, water gushing, gas explosion and rockburst. The complex causality of the influencing factors of each subsystem is analyzed, and the system dynamics model is constructed by using the theory and method of system dynamics, which accords with the actual situation of the tunnel in China. The dynamic characteristics of risk level of influencing factors are observed. Through empirical research, the overall risk level of tunnel construction is simulated, and different decision-making schemes are analyzed and compared, which can directly predict the future risk of the system and provide theoretical basis for risk management. In order to provide guidance for improving the scientific and predictable decision-making of tunnel construction safety management, the main research work and contents of this paper are as follows: (1) the present situation of tunnel construction safety in China and the research status of tunnel risk management at home and abroad. The theory of tunnel risk management is summarized, and the existing problems in the study of tunnel construction risk are found. The improved WBS-RBS risk analysis method is used to identify the risk sources in the tunnel construction process, and the risk factor system of tunnel construction is established. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to calculate the weight of each risk factor.) the theory and method of system dynamics are used to analyze the causality, and the causality diagram is given. According to the causality graph, the flow potential flow rate and variable set are established, and the flow diagram is drawn. Taking Longquanshan Tunnel of Chengcheng (Chengdu) Chongqing (Chongqing) passenger dedicated Line as an example, the system dynamics model is studied empirically, and the risk level of tunnel construction system is forecasted by VENSIM-PLE software. The purpose of this study is to apply the idea of system dynamics research to tunnel construction risk management, and put forward a new research idea to improve the efficiency of tunnel construction risk management. Reduce management costs.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U455.1

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)會議論文 前3條

1 賈劍青;王宏圖;李曉紅;胡國忠;勒曉光;;隧道工程風(fēng)險管理探討[A];2005全國地鐵與地下工程技術(shù)風(fēng)險管理研討會論文集[C];2005年

2 胡群芳;秦家寶;;2003-2011年地鐵隧道工程建設(shè)施工事故統(tǒng)計分析[A];第二屆全國工程風(fēng)險與保險研究學(xué)術(shù)研討會暨中國土木工程學(xué)會工程風(fēng)險與保險研究分會第一屆第三次全體理事會論文集[C];2012年

3 黃輝;;全路推行安全風(fēng)險管理 確保運(yùn)輸安全持續(xù)穩(wěn)定[A];第三屆鐵路安全風(fēng)險管理及技術(shù)裝備研討會論文集（下冊）[C];2012年

，

本文編號：1578891