本文選題：福建沿海　切入點(diǎn)：船舶事故　出處：《集美大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：如今科技的不斷更新,船舶的設(shè)備越來(lái)越先進(jìn)了,理論上講,船舶發(fā)生事故的可能性應(yīng)該越來(lái)越低才是,但是近幾年船舶事故還是保持在一個(gè)較高的趨勢(shì)水平,通過(guò)研究發(fā)現(xiàn),導(dǎo)致事故居高不下的原因是由于各方面的管理不善導(dǎo)致的,所以加強(qiáng)船舶的安全管理是很有必要的。福建沿海水域地處臺(tái)灣海峽,是國(guó)際船舶航行的一條重要通道,保證福建沿海水域的交通安全至關(guān)重要,所以對(duì)該水域的船舶事故調(diào)查研究就是一項(xiàng)必不可少的環(huán)節(jié)。通過(guò)分析過(guò)去幾年內(nèi)該水域的船舶事故發(fā)展規(guī)律,分析預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)某一時(shí)間該水域船舶事故的趨勢(shì)及發(fā)生事故的主要因素,對(duì)引起事故的原因積極采取相應(yīng)的措施,避免同樣的原因?qū)е露嗥鹗鹿实陌l(fā)生,盡可能的降低船舶事故的發(fā)生量,提供過(guò)往船舶一條安全的海上航道。由于船舶事故的隨機(jī)性、復(fù)雜性等特點(diǎn)交織在一起,所以本文以定性分析和定量分析相結(jié)合的分析方法。從福建省各個(gè)地方海事局收集整理船舶事故資料進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì),通過(guò)分析福建沿海的水域情況和事故的統(tǒng)計(jì)規(guī)律,結(jié)合典型事故分析,歸納出導(dǎo)致福建沿海船舶事故的主要因素。然后分析福建沿海2001~2014年船舶事故數(shù)據(jù)特點(diǎn),總結(jié)福建沿海船舶事故的特性和規(guī)律,借鑒國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者在船舶事故預(yù)測(cè)上的研究方法,發(fā)現(xiàn)灰色理論的GM(1,1)預(yù)測(cè)模型、ARIMA時(shí)間序列預(yù)測(cè)模型及BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測(cè)模型在船舶事故的預(yù)測(cè)上具有很強(qiáng)的適用性。并對(duì)福建沿海船舶事故數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行單一預(yù)測(cè),運(yùn)用其結(jié)果可以有效的分析事故數(shù)據(jù)的變化。為了進(jìn)一步提高模型的預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性,針對(duì)福建沿海的船舶事故數(shù)據(jù)建立時(shí)間權(quán)重的組合預(yù)測(cè)模型,給出時(shí)間權(quán)重應(yīng)該滿足的條件,建立時(shí)間權(quán)重函數(shù),并且推導(dǎo)時(shí)間組合權(quán)重的計(jì)算公式。通過(guò)驗(yàn)證表明,以時(shí)間權(quán)重為基礎(chǔ)的組合預(yù)測(cè)模型在其預(yù)測(cè)精度方面較單一的預(yù)測(cè)方法不但精度高,而且具有較好的普遍適用性。最后,提出加強(qiáng)福建沿海水上安全管理的措施,為海事管理部門及時(shí)的控制船舶交通事故的發(fā)生量提供科學(xué)有效的決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the development of science and technology, the equipment of ships is getting more and more advanced. Theoretically, the possibility of ship accidents should be lower and lower. However, in recent years, ship accidents have remained at a high trend level. The reasons for the high level of accidents are due to mismanagement in various aspects, so it is very necessary to strengthen the safety management of ships. The coastal waters of Fujian are located in the Taiwan Strait and are an important passage for international ship navigation. It is very important to ensure the traffic safety in the coastal waters of Fujian, so the investigation and study of ship accidents in this area is an essential link. By analyzing the development law of ship accidents in this area in the past few years, This paper analyzes and predicts the trend and main factors of ship accidents in this water area in a certain time in the future, and takes corresponding measures to prevent the same causes from causing many accidents. Reduce the number of ship accidents as far as possible, and provide a safe sea channel for passing ships. Because of the randomness and complexity of ship accidents, So this paper combines qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, collects and collates ship accident data from various local maritime authorities in Fujian Province, and analyzes the situation of Fujian coastal waters and the statistical law of accidents. Combined with the analysis of typical accidents, the main factors leading to the marine accidents along the coast of Fujian are summed up, and then the characteristics of the data of ship accidents in the coastal areas of Fujian from 2001 to 2014 are analyzed, and the characteristics and rules of the accidents in the coastal areas of Fujian are summarized. Drawing lessons from the research methods of domestic and foreign scholars on ship accident prediction, It is found that Arima time series prediction model and BP neural network prediction model based on grey theory have strong applicability in ship accident prediction. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the model, the combined forecasting model of the time weight is established for the ship accident data in Fujian coastal area, and the conditions that the time weight should be satisfied are given. The time weight function is established, and the calculation formula of time combined weight is deduced. The verification shows that the combined prediction model based on time weight is more accurate than the single prediction method. Finally, the measures to strengthen the management of water safety along the coast of Fujian Province are put forward to provide a scientific and effective decision basis for the maritime management department to control the occurrence of ship traffic accidents in a timely manner.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：集美大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U698.6

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