火災(zāi)安全設(shè)計(jì)中參數(shù)不確定性分析及耦合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的設(shè)計(jì)方法研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-12-13 02:47
【摘要】：在火災(zāi)安全設(shè)計(jì)中,通常利用火災(zāi)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型、探測(cè)模型和人員疏散模型來(lái)計(jì)算得到合理的火災(zāi)安全設(shè)計(jì)方案。由于火災(zāi)動(dòng)力學(xué)和疏散過(guò)程的高度復(fù)雜性,這些模型的輸入?yún)?shù)往往具有一定的不確定性。對(duì)火災(zāi)安全設(shè)計(jì)中的參數(shù)不確定性進(jìn)行科學(xué)有效地量化對(duì)于保證火災(zāi)安全設(shè)計(jì)結(jié)果的科學(xué)性、可信性具有重要意義。在目前的火災(zāi)安全設(shè)計(jì)中,經(jīng)常忽視這些參數(shù)的不確定性,將這些參數(shù)視為定值或者通過(guò)設(shè)定安全系數(shù)來(lái)表示這些不確定性。這樣的處理方法很難對(duì)參數(shù)不確定性進(jìn)行有效處理,因而所得到設(shè)計(jì)結(jié)果的準(zhǔn)確性和可信性缺乏有效驗(yàn)證。針對(duì)這一問(wèn)題,本論文提出了定量分析參數(shù)不確定性影響的方法以及考慮參數(shù)不確定性的火災(zāi)安全設(shè)計(jì)方法,主要研究工作與成果如下： 基于拉丁超立方抽樣(LHS)的Monte Carlo模擬建立了分析熱釋放速率不確定性對(duì)可用安全疏散時(shí)間(ASET)影響的方法。根據(jù)t2火假設(shè),分析了火災(zāi)增長(zhǎng)系數(shù)和最大熱釋放速率的不確定性,并采用概率方法來(lái)表征其不確定性。在分析了確定性火災(zāi)增長(zhǎng)系數(shù)和最大熱釋放速率對(duì)ASET的影響基礎(chǔ)上,利用基于拉丁超立方抽樣(Latin Hypercube Sampling, LHS)的Monte Carlo模擬分析了當(dāng)分別考慮火災(zāi)增長(zhǎng)系數(shù)和最大熱釋放速率的不確定性時(shí)對(duì)ASET的影響,最后討論了二者均為不確定性參數(shù)時(shí)對(duì)ASET的影響。此外,本部分還給出了如何利用概率信息如累積概率函數(shù)和補(bǔ)充累積概率函數(shù)來(lái)幫助火災(zāi)安全設(shè)計(jì)人員設(shè)定合理的火災(zāi)規(guī)模。 提出了RSET相關(guān)計(jì)算模型的全局參數(shù)敏感性分析方法。為減少參數(shù)不確定性分析的計(jì)算量并保證計(jì)算的精度,需要利用參數(shù)敏感性分析方法確定各輸入?yún)?shù)對(duì)結(jié)果的影響程度。由于RSET計(jì)算所涉及模型的復(fù)雜性,模型的輸入?yún)?shù)與輸出結(jié)果之間往往是非線(xiàn)性的且輸入?yún)?shù)之間的交互作用也會(huì)對(duì)模型輸出產(chǎn)生影響。因此,傳統(tǒng)的局部參數(shù)敏感性分析方法不適合RSET相關(guān)計(jì)算模型的參數(shù)敏感性分析。為此,本研究提出了適用于RSET計(jì)算模型的全局參數(shù)敏感性分析方法,包括輸入?yún)?shù)不確定性的表征、基于散點(diǎn)圖的初步敏感性分析以及傅里葉譜敏感性測(cè)試(Fourier amplitude sensitivity test,FAST)和Sobol指數(shù)法的全局參數(shù)敏感性分析方法。在給定參數(shù)取值范圍和分布的情況下,對(duì)感溫探測(cè)模型和人員疏散模型進(jìn)行了全局參數(shù)敏感性分析。首先利用散點(diǎn)圖來(lái)檢驗(yàn)輸入?yún)?shù)與輸出結(jié)果之間是否存在線(xiàn)性關(guān)系。基于散點(diǎn)圖的分析結(jié)果,利用FAST和Sobol一階指數(shù)對(duì)感溫探測(cè)模型和疏散模型進(jìn)行了全局參數(shù)敏感性分析；以Sobol二階指數(shù)為指標(biāo)定量分析了輸入?yún)?shù)的交互作用對(duì)探測(cè)時(shí)間和疏散時(shí)間的影響；通過(guò)將某一不確定性參數(shù)取做定值時(shí)的累積概率曲線(xiàn)與考慮所有參數(shù)不確定性時(shí)的累積概率曲線(xiàn)比較,驗(yàn)證了本研究中參數(shù)敏感性分析方法的有效性。 在分析了熱釋放速率不確定性對(duì)ASET影響的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了一種火災(zāi)安全設(shè)計(jì)中火災(zāi)規(guī)模的定量計(jì)算方法。該方法將可接受風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平的概念引入到了目標(biāo)失效概率的設(shè)定中,在考慮熱釋放速率不確定性的前提下,提出利用可靠性理論和全局優(yōu)化算法來(lái)計(jì)算不同火災(zāi)場(chǎng)景下所需要設(shè)定的火災(zāi)規(guī)模。工程算例分析結(jié)果表明該方法可以用于火災(zāi)安全設(shè)計(jì)中火災(zāi)規(guī)模的定量計(jì)算。 提出了將安全系數(shù)與目標(biāo)失效概率聯(lián)系起來(lái)的計(jì)算方法。由于目前安全系數(shù)取值依賴(lài)設(shè)計(jì)人員的主觀判斷且設(shè)計(jì)人員無(wú)法確定所選定的安全系數(shù)對(duì)應(yīng)多大的失效概率,在考慮ASET和RSET計(jì)算過(guò)程中參數(shù)不確定性的前提下,將傳統(tǒng)的安全系數(shù)概念進(jìn)行了拓展,提出了隨機(jī)安全系數(shù)的概念�；陔S機(jī)安全系數(shù)的概率分布,建立了安全系數(shù)與失效概率之間的關(guān)系。針對(duì)ASET和RSET的概率分布較為復(fù)雜,無(wú)法得到隨機(jī)安全系數(shù)的概率分布表達(dá)式的不足,利用基于LHS的Monte Carlo模擬確定隨機(jī)安全系數(shù)的概率分布。工程算例分析結(jié)果表明,本文所提出的方法可以有效地將安全系數(shù)與失效概率聯(lián)系起來(lái),從而使得火災(zāi)安全設(shè)計(jì)人員在選取安全系數(shù)時(shí)能夠充分考慮可接受的火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平,為安全系數(shù)的選取提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。此外,該方法也能夠?yàn)樵O(shè)計(jì)人員提供現(xiàn)有設(shè)計(jì)方案的改進(jìn)建議,使最終的設(shè)計(jì)結(jié)果更為科學(xué)可信。
[Abstract]:In the fire safety design, the fire dynamics model, the detection model and the personnel evacuation model are usually used to calculate the reasonable fire safety design scheme. The input parameters of these models often have certain uncertainties due to the high complexity of the fire dynamics and the evacuation process. The scientific and effective quantification of the parameter uncertainty in the fire safety design is of great significance to ensure the scientific and credible of the fire safety design result. In the current fire safety design, the uncertainty of these parameters is often ignored, these parameters are treated as fixed values or these uncertainties are expressed by setting a safety factor. Such a processing method is difficult to effectively handle the uncertainty of the parameters, so that the accuracy and the credibility of the obtained design result are not effectively verified. In order to solve this problem, this paper puts forward a method for quantitatively analyzing the influence of the uncertainty of the parameters and the method of fire safety design considering the uncertainty of the parameters. The main research work and results are as follows: The effect of thermal release rate uncertainty on the available safe evacuation time (ASET) is established based on the Monte Carlo simulation of the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) Method. According to the hypothesis of t2 fire, the uncertainty of the fire growth factor and the maximum heat release rate is analyzed, and the probability method is used to characterize the uncertainty. Based on the analysis of the effect of the deterministic fire growth factor and the maximum heat release rate on the ASET, the shadow of the ASET is analyzed by the Monte Carlo simulation based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). In response, the shadow of the ASET is discussed in the end of the paper. in addition, this section also provide how to use that probability information such as the cumulative probability function and the supplemental cumulative probability function to help the fire safety design personnel to set a reasonable fire gauge The global parameter sensitivity of the RSET-related calculation model is presented. In order to reduce the calculation amount of the parameter uncertainty analysis and to ensure the accuracy of the calculation, it is necessary to use the parameter sensitivity analysis method to determine the shadow of each input parameter to the result In response to the complexity of the model involved in the RSET calculation, the input parameters of the model and the output results are often non-linear and the interaction between the input parameters can also output the model output The traditional local parameter sensitivity analysis method is not suitable for the parameter sensitivity of the RSET-related calculation model. For this purpose, the global parameter sensitivity analysis method for RSET calculation model is proposed, including the characterization of input parameter uncertainty, the preliminary sensitivity analysis based on the scatter diagram, and the Fourier spectrum sensitivity test (Fourier sample sensitivity t Global parameter sensitivity score for the test, FAST, and Sobol index method In the condition of the range and distribution of a given parameter, the temperature-sensitive detection model and the personnel evacuation model are sensitive to global parameters sex analysis. First, use a scatter diagram to verify that there is a line between the input parameter and the output result In this paper, based on the results of the analysis of the scatter diagram, the global parameter sensitivity analysis of the temperature-sensitive detection model and the evacuation model is carried out by using the FAST and Sobel-order indices, and the detection time and the evacuation time of the interaction of the input parameters are quantitatively analyzed with the Sobol second-order index as the index. The influence of the parameter sensitivity analysis method in this study is verified by comparing the cumulative probability curve of a certain uncertainty parameter with the cumulative probability curve when the uncertainty of all parameters is taken into account. Effectiveness. Based on the analysis of the effect of thermal release rate uncertainty on the effect of the ASET, a method for determining the scale of fire in a fire safety design is put forward. In the method, the concept of acceptable risk level is introduced into the setting of the target failure probability. Under the premise of considering the uncertainty of the heat release rate, the reliability theory and the global optimization algorithm are put forward to calculate the required settings in different fire scenarios. The results of the engineering calculation show that the method can be used in the fire safety design The quantitative calculation of the safety factor and the target failure probability is presented. Due to the fact that the current safety factor is dependent on the subjective judgment of the designer and the designer cannot determine the selected safety factor corresponding to the large failure probability, the traditional safety factor is compared under the premise of considering the uncertainty of the parameters in the calculation process of the ASET and the RSET The concept is expanded and random The concept of safety factor. The safety factor and failure are established based on the probability distribution of the random safety factor. The probability distribution of ASET and RSET is complex and the probability distribution expression of the random safety factor cannot be obtained, and the random safety is determined by the Monte Carlo simulation based on the LHS. The results of engineering calculation show that the method proposed in this paper can effectively link the safety factor with the failure probability, so that the fire safety designer can fully consider the acceptable safety factor when selecting the safety factor. The risk level of fire is selected as a factor of safety. in addition, that method can provide the design personnel with the improvement proposal of the existing design scheme to make the final design knot
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：X932
本文編號(hào)：2375733
[Abstract]:In the fire safety design, the fire dynamics model, the detection model and the personnel evacuation model are usually used to calculate the reasonable fire safety design scheme. The input parameters of these models often have certain uncertainties due to the high complexity of the fire dynamics and the evacuation process. The scientific and effective quantification of the parameter uncertainty in the fire safety design is of great significance to ensure the scientific and credible of the fire safety design result. In the current fire safety design, the uncertainty of these parameters is often ignored, these parameters are treated as fixed values or these uncertainties are expressed by setting a safety factor. Such a processing method is difficult to effectively handle the uncertainty of the parameters, so that the accuracy and the credibility of the obtained design result are not effectively verified. In order to solve this problem, this paper puts forward a method for quantitatively analyzing the influence of the uncertainty of the parameters and the method of fire safety design considering the uncertainty of the parameters. The main research work and results are as follows: The effect of thermal release rate uncertainty on the available safe evacuation time (ASET) is established based on the Monte Carlo simulation of the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) Method. According to the hypothesis of t2 fire, the uncertainty of the fire growth factor and the maximum heat release rate is analyzed, and the probability method is used to characterize the uncertainty. Based on the analysis of the effect of the deterministic fire growth factor and the maximum heat release rate on the ASET, the shadow of the ASET is analyzed by the Monte Carlo simulation based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). In response, the shadow of the ASET is discussed in the end of the paper. in addition, this section also provide how to use that probability information such as the cumulative probability function and the supplemental cumulative probability function to help the fire safety design personnel to set a reasonable fire gauge The global parameter sensitivity of the RSET-related calculation model is presented. In order to reduce the calculation amount of the parameter uncertainty analysis and to ensure the accuracy of the calculation, it is necessary to use the parameter sensitivity analysis method to determine the shadow of each input parameter to the result In response to the complexity of the model involved in the RSET calculation, the input parameters of the model and the output results are often non-linear and the interaction between the input parameters can also output the model output The traditional local parameter sensitivity analysis method is not suitable for the parameter sensitivity of the RSET-related calculation model. For this purpose, the global parameter sensitivity analysis method for RSET calculation model is proposed, including the characterization of input parameter uncertainty, the preliminary sensitivity analysis based on the scatter diagram, and the Fourier spectrum sensitivity test (Fourier sample sensitivity t Global parameter sensitivity score for the test, FAST, and Sobol index method In the condition of the range and distribution of a given parameter, the temperature-sensitive detection model and the personnel evacuation model are sensitive to global parameters sex analysis. First, use a scatter diagram to verify that there is a line between the input parameter and the output result In this paper, based on the results of the analysis of the scatter diagram, the global parameter sensitivity analysis of the temperature-sensitive detection model and the evacuation model is carried out by using the FAST and Sobel-order indices, and the detection time and the evacuation time of the interaction of the input parameters are quantitatively analyzed with the Sobol second-order index as the index. The influence of the parameter sensitivity analysis method in this study is verified by comparing the cumulative probability curve of a certain uncertainty parameter with the cumulative probability curve when the uncertainty of all parameters is taken into account. Effectiveness. Based on the analysis of the effect of thermal release rate uncertainty on the effect of the ASET, a method for determining the scale of fire in a fire safety design is put forward. In the method, the concept of acceptable risk level is introduced into the setting of the target failure probability. Under the premise of considering the uncertainty of the heat release rate, the reliability theory and the global optimization algorithm are put forward to calculate the required settings in different fire scenarios. The results of the engineering calculation show that the method can be used in the fire safety design The quantitative calculation of the safety factor and the target failure probability is presented. Due to the fact that the current safety factor is dependent on the subjective judgment of the designer and the designer cannot determine the selected safety factor corresponding to the large failure probability, the traditional safety factor is compared under the premise of considering the uncertainty of the parameters in the calculation process of the ASET and the RSET The concept is expanded and random The concept of safety factor. The safety factor and failure are established based on the probability distribution of the random safety factor. The probability distribution of ASET and RSET is complex and the probability distribution expression of the random safety factor cannot be obtained, and the random safety is determined by the Monte Carlo simulation based on the LHS. The results of engineering calculation show that the method proposed in this paper can effectively link the safety factor with the failure probability, so that the fire safety designer can fully consider the acceptable safety factor when selecting the safety factor. The risk level of fire is selected as a factor of safety. in addition, that method can provide the design personnel with the improvement proposal of the existing design scheme to make the final design knot
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：X932
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條
1 汪金輝;陸守香;;建筑火災(zāi)中人員安全疏散的可靠概率分析模型[J];中國(guó)科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2006年01期
相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前2條
1 褚冠全;基于火災(zāi)動(dòng)力學(xué)與統(tǒng)計(jì)理論耦合的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法研究[D];中國(guó)科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué);2007年
2 汪金輝;建筑火災(zāi)環(huán)境下人員安全疏散不確定性研究[D];中國(guó)科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué);2008年
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