【摘要】：系統(tǒng)綜合評價是個十分復雜的問題,它涉及評價對象集、評級指標集、評價方法集、評價人集,從而評價結果也由包括但不限于的上述各種因素的組合所影響或決定。對一個復雜對象的評價能否準確,不但受所遴選的專家群及描述被評價對象特征的指標體系的影響,還受所選擇評價方法的影響。單一評價方法的應用一定程度上解決系統(tǒng)評價問題并為決策提供了參考,但仍然存在各方面的缺點。因此,就要求我們要有系統(tǒng)觀念,運用“集成法”幫助解決評價過程中出現(xiàn)的問題,在各個階段都比較科學合理開展的情況下才能最終評價結果的可靠性。 當前,人們已經(jīng)重視對綜合評價方法的創(chuàng)新與發(fā)展。從系統(tǒng)觀念出發(fā),分析系統(tǒng)特點,采用“集成化”的方案,針對問題的不同側面應用不同的理論或方法以發(fā)揮其優(yōu)勢,是多指標綜合評價方法發(fā)展的途徑之一。故本文就水上交通系統(tǒng)安全度集成化評價模型的構建及應用做了研究。 本文研究工作主要有以下幾個方面：第一章為研究背景及研究內容的介紹,并交代了本文的內容架構；第二章對水上交通安全評價常用理論與模型進行了回顧與概括,如模糊理論與模糊綜合評價模型、灰色理論與灰色聚類評價模型等,這些理論與模型可為采用“集成化”的評價方案提供借鑒。第三章為文章核心部分。首先概括介紹了集對分析理論及其聯(lián)系數(shù)概念,其次分析了構建基于聯(lián)系數(shù)結構的綜合評價模型的可行性,并建立了基于聯(lián)系數(shù)結構的安全度綜合評價模型；再次,分析了評價模型中各組成模塊的含義并給出了其實現(xiàn)方法；最后,給出了“對立---統(tǒng)一”的評價結果形式。第四章以課題組項目為契機,系統(tǒng)、深入、細致的分析了長江尹公洲航段的通航環(huán)境特征；第五章確定了尹公洲航段安全度評價的指標體系并引用了相應的評價標準,構建了指標安全等級灰類的白化權函數(shù)；第六章是文章的重點,主要運用所建立的聯(lián)系數(shù)結構的安全評價模型對尹公洲航段進行了通航環(huán)境安全度量化綜合評價；第七章為研究結論與展望,對本文的研究內容、研究結果進行了總結,提出了論文的不足之處,并針對尚可以深入研究的方面提出了研究展望。
[Abstract]:Systematic comprehensive evaluation is a very complex problem, which involves the evaluation object set, rating index set, evaluation method set and evaluation person set. Therefore, the evaluation results are also influenced or determined by the combination of the above factors, which include but are not limited to. Whether the evaluation of a complex object is accurate or not is influenced not only by the selected expert group and the index system which describes the characteristics of the object to be evaluated, but also by the selected evaluation method. The application of single evaluation method solves the problem of system evaluation to a certain extent and provides a reference for decision making, but there are still shortcomings in all aspects. Therefore, we need to have a systematic concept, use "integrated method" to help solve the problems in the evaluation process, in each stage of scientific and reasonable development of the final evaluation results reliability. At present, people have attached importance to the innovation and development of comprehensive evaluation methods. Starting from the system concept, analyzing the characteristics of the system, adopting the scheme of "integration" and applying different theories or methods to the different sides of the problem in order to give play to its advantages, it is one of the ways to develop the multi-index comprehensive evaluation method. Therefore, the construction and application of the integrated evaluation model of water transportation system safety are studied in this paper. The main research work of this paper is as follows: the first chapter is the introduction of the research background and research content, and explains the content structure of this paper; In the second chapter, the common theories and models of water traffic safety evaluation are reviewed and summarized, such as fuzzy theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, grey theory and grey cluster evaluation model, etc. These theories and models can be used for reference in the integrated evaluation scheme. The third chapter is the core part of the article. Firstly, the theory of set pair analysis and the concept of connection number are introduced. Secondly, the feasibility of constructing a comprehensive evaluation model based on connection number structure is analyzed, and a comprehensive evaluation model of safety degree based on connection number structure is established. Thirdly, the meaning of each component module in the evaluation model is analyzed and its implementation method is given. Finally, the evaluation result form of "opposition-unity" is given. The fourth chapter takes the project as the turning point, systematically, deeply, meticulously analyzes the navigation environment characteristic of the Yangtze River Yin Gongzhou section; In the fifth chapter, the index system of the safety degree evaluation of Yin Gongzhou section is determined and the corresponding evaluation standard is cited, and the whitening weight function of the grey class of the index safety grade is constructed. The sixth chapter is the focus of the article, mainly using the established safety evaluation model of connection number structure to evaluate the navigation environment safety degree of Yin Gongzhou section. The seventh chapter is the conclusion and prospect of the research. The research contents and results are summarized, the deficiencies of the paper are put forward, and the research prospect is put forward in view of the aspects that can be further studied.
【學位授予單位】：武漢理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：U698

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