【摘要】：空間碎片的碰撞預(yù)警與規(guī)避能有效避免碰撞事件的發(fā)生.碰撞概率是碰撞預(yù)警的主要判據(jù),也是航天器規(guī)避機(jī)動(dòng)決策的主要依據(jù).由于計(jì)算碰撞概率的各相關(guān)參數(shù)帶有誤差,導(dǎo)致計(jì)算得到的碰撞概率值并不準(zhǔn)確,難以做出規(guī)避機(jī)動(dòng)決策,因此評(píng)估碰撞概率值的可信程度是亟需解決的問題.本文給出了一種碰撞概率置信度的計(jì)算方法,利用各影響參數(shù)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差,通過誤差傳遞的方法計(jì)算碰撞概率的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差,結(jié)合單邊Chebyshev不等式,給出碰撞概率值大于10~(-4)閾值時(shí)的置信度,并結(jié)合實(shí)際案例進(jìn)行了分析.
[Abstract]:Collision warning and avoidance of space debris can effectively avoid collision events. Collision probability is the main criterion of collision early warning and the main basis of spacecraft maneuver decision. Due to the errors in the relative parameters of calculating the collision probability, the calculated collision probability values are not accurate, so it is difficult to make the decision to avoid maneuvering. Therefore, it is urgent to solve the problem of evaluating the reliability of the collision probability values. In this paper, a method of calculating the confidence of collision probability is presented. The standard deviation of collision probability is calculated by the error transfer method using the standard deviation of each influence parameter, and the one-sided Chebyshev inequality is combined. The confidence degree when the probability value of collision is greater than 10 ~ (-4) threshold is given, and the actual case is analyzed.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)科學(xué)院國(guó)家天文臺(tái);中國(guó)科學(xué)院大學(xué);
【分類號(hào)】：V528

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本文編號(hào)：2170975