本文選題：自然災(zāi)害 + 概率風(fēng)險　； 參考：《系統(tǒng)工程理論與實踐》2017年02期

【摘要】：傳統(tǒng)的概率風(fēng)險通過基于歷史災(zāi)害事件記錄分別求解風(fēng)險源強度的概率分布曲線和風(fēng)險承受體的脆弱性曲線而得到,表示的是研究區(qū)域如果發(fā)生一次災(zāi)害事件的期望損失值,缺乏表征風(fēng)險的"空間、時間、水平值"三要素中的時間要素指標,因而會存在系統(tǒng)誤差.因此,本文通過對傳統(tǒng)的概率風(fēng)險模型添加時間要素,給出了系統(tǒng)誤差校正后的概率風(fēng)險評估模型.之后,以浙江省和廣東省的臺風(fēng)概率風(fēng)險比較研究為例,通過確定具體的指標和采用信息擴散技術(shù)估計相應(yīng)的函數(shù),將校正后的概率風(fēng)險評估模型具體化為臺風(fēng)概率風(fēng)險的應(yīng)用模型,評估了兩省的臺風(fēng)概率風(fēng)險.結(jié)果表明,系統(tǒng)誤差校正前后,兩省的臺風(fēng)概率風(fēng)險比較截然不同,校正后的概率風(fēng)險結(jié)果更符合客觀實際.
[Abstract]:The traditional probabilistic risk is obtained by solving the probability distribution curve of the intensity of the risk source and the vulnerability curve of the risk tolerance based on the historical disaster event record, which represents the expected loss value if a disaster event occurs in the studied area. There is no time factor index in space, time and level to represent risk, so there will be systematic error. Therefore, by adding time elements to the traditional probabilistic risk model, this paper presents the probabilistic risk assessment model after system error correction. Then, taking the comparative study of typhoon probability risk between Zhejiang Province and Guangdong Province as an example, by determining specific indicators and using information diffusion technology to estimate the corresponding functions, The corrected probabilistic risk assessment model is translated into the applied model of typhoon probabilistic risk, and the typhoon probabilistic risk of two provinces is evaluated. The results show that the typhoon probability risk is quite different between the two provinces before and after the system error correction, and the corrected probability risk results are more in line with the objective reality.
【作者單位】： 北京師范大學(xué)地表過程與資源生態(tài)國家重點實驗室;北京師范大學(xué)環(huán)境演變與自然災(zāi)害教育部重點實驗室;北京師范大學(xué)民政部/教育部減災(zāi)與應(yīng)急管理研究院;中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)信息研究所;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金(41471426)~~
【分類號】：X43
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本文編號：2108314