本文選題：鐵路應急決策 + 預案評估�。� 參考：《中國鐵道科學研究院》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：當前對于鐵路突發(fā)事件應急決策，主要依據(jù)決策者的自身經(jīng)驗，然而由于決策者的知識局限性，做出的決策可能會存在一定的不足，另外，決策者的自身壓力可能較大，正常的決策能力會受到影響。因此，如何高效、及時地對鐵路突發(fā)事件進行有效決策，已成為迫切需要解決的問題。本文綜合運用模糊數(shù)學、評估理論、多屬性群決策理論及計算機技術等多學科知識，采用分析與綜合相結合、理論研究與數(shù)值試驗相結合的方法，針對鐵路突發(fā)事件應急決策的若干問題進行了研究。本研究的具體內容如下： （1）研究了鐵路突發(fā)事件及鐵路應急決策相關理論，包括鐵路突發(fā)事件定義、分類分級、特點、基本應急屬性，以及鐵路應急決策定義、特點、流程和方法。 （2）提出案例推理（CBR）應用到鐵路應急決策中，①針對鐵路突發(fā)事件案例表示，提出采用四元組（主題域、問題域、解決方案域、及效果域）描述案例，并提出該四元組中包含的屬性；②提出鐵路突發(fā)事件案例以及鐵路應急預案框架法表示方法；③案例屬性值上考慮了數(shù)值型、有序枚舉型、無序枚舉型、區(qū)間數(shù)型及模糊數(shù)型五種形式屬性值，提出五種形式屬性值的案例相似度計算方法；④結合案例屬性的特點，采用層次分析法確定鐵路突發(fā)事件案例屬性權重，研究了案例屬性局部相似度計算方法、案例總體相似度計算方法，以及基于結構相似度算法，研究案例屬性缺失條件下的案例總體相似度計算方法；⑤提出基于案例推理的鐵路突發(fā)事件應急決策流程。 （3）在鐵路應急預案評估方面，考慮評估值的不確定性和模糊性以及評估者的偏好和知識不完備性，本文提出四種鐵路應急預案評估方法：①改進VIKOR方法評估鐵路應急預案，針對的評估指標值為語言值，指標權重的求解運用基于熵的主客觀賦權法，另外對鐵路預案評估指標提出改進；②針對評估指標值為混合值，提出基于二元語義的混合多屬性群決策評估方法，，提出模型及求解算法；③針對指標評估值為區(qū)間語言值，定義區(qū)間二元語義混合平均(IVTHA)算子及區(qū)間二元語義混合幾何(IVTHG)新算子，提出基于區(qū)間二元語義混合平均(IVTHA)算子的決策評估方法，給出算法步驟；④針對評估指標具有不同優(yōu)先級，評估值為語言值，提出二元語義優(yōu)先加權平均（2TLPWA）算子、二元語義優(yōu)先幾何平均（2TLPWG）算子、二元語義優(yōu)先有序加權平均（2TLPOWA）算子、二元語義優(yōu)先有序加權幾何（2TLPOWG）算子，提出基于二元語義優(yōu)先有序平均算子（2TPOWA）算子的與預案評估方法，并給出算法步驟。 （4）在決策支持系統(tǒng)的理論基礎上，給出鐵路突發(fā)事件應急決策系統(tǒng)的定義、目標，構建了鐵路突發(fā)事件應急決策系統(tǒng)的框架，提出鐵路突發(fā)事件應急決策系統(tǒng)的總體設計，并對功能模塊做了較詳細設計，另外對鐵路突發(fā)事件應急決策系統(tǒng)“多庫”系統(tǒng)中的知識庫、模型庫、方法庫、基礎信息庫系統(tǒng)做出設計。 本文的研究對改進鐵路突發(fā)事件應急決策方法，提高鐵路突發(fā)事件應急決策水平具有一定的現(xiàn)實意義，同時對案例推理人工智能技術、多屬性群決策評估理論以及決策支持系統(tǒng)的結合研究提供一定的理論基礎。
[Abstract]:At present, the decision of emergency railway emergency is mainly based on the own experience of the decision-makers. However, because of the knowledge limitation of the decision-makers, there may be some shortcomings in the decision making. In addition, the pressure of the decision-makers may be larger and the normal decision-making ability will be affected. Therefore, how to effectively and promptly to railway emergencies Effective decision making has become an urgent problem to be solved. In this paper, the multidisciplinary knowledge of fuzzy mathematics, evaluation theory, multi attribute group decision-making theory and computer technology, combined with analysis and synthesis, and a combination of theoretical research and numerical experiment are adopted in this paper, and some problems of emergency decision making for railway emergency are carried out. The specific contents of this study are as follows:
(1) the related theories of railway emergency and railway emergency decision are studied, including the definition, classification, classification, characteristics, basic emergency properties of railway emergency, and the definition, characteristics, process and methods of railway emergency decision.
(2) a case based reasoning (CBR) is applied to railway emergency decision making. (1) a case is described with four tuples (subject domain, problem domain, solution domain, and effect domain) for railway emergency cases, and the attributes included in the four tuple are proposed. Secondly, a railway emergency case and a framework for railway contingency plan are presented. In the case attribute value, five kinds of attribute values of numerical, ordered enumerated, unordered enumerated, interval number and fuzzy numbers are considered, and five kinds of case similarity calculation method of attribute values are put forward. (4) combining the characteristics of case properties, the weight of railway emergency case property is determined by analytic hierarchy process, and the case study is studied. The local similarity calculation method, the overall case similarity calculation method, and the structure similarity algorithm, study the overall similarity calculation method of the case under the absence of case property; 5. Put forward the emergency decision process of railway emergency case based on case-based reasoning.
(3) in the evaluation of railway emergency plan, considering the uncertainty and fuzziness of evaluation value and the preference and incompleteness of the evaluators, this paper puts forward four methods of evaluating railway emergency plan: (1) improving the VIKOR method to evaluate the railway emergency plan, the value of the evaluation index is the value of language, and the entropy based on the calculation of the weight of the index. The method of subjective and objective empowerment is also improved. Secondly, a mixed multi attribute group decision evaluation method based on two meta semantics is proposed to evaluate the evaluation index of railway plan, and the model and solving algorithm are proposed. Thirdly, the interval two element semantic mixed mean (IVTHA) operator and interval are defined in view of the value of the index evaluation as the interval language value. Two element semantic hybrid geometry (IVTHG) new operator, a decision evaluation method based on interval two element semantic mixed mean (IVTHA) operator is proposed, and the algorithm steps are given. (4) the evaluation index has different priority, the evaluation value is the language value, the two element semantic priority weighted average average (2TLPWA) operator and the two meta semantic priority geometric mean (2TLPWG) operator are proposed. The two element semantic prioritized weighted mean (2TLPOWA) operator and two meta semantic prioritized weighted geometric (2TLPOWG) operator are used to propose a preview evaluation method based on the two element semantic prioritized mean operator (2TPOWA) operator, and the algorithm steps are given.
(4) on the basis of the theory of the decision support system, the definition of the emergency decision system for railway emergency events is given. The framework of the emergency decision system for railway emergency events is set up. The overall design of the emergency decision system for railway emergency events is put forward, and the functional modules are designed in detail. In addition, the emergency decision system for emergency railway events is also made. The knowledge base, model base, method base and basic information base system of the "multi storehouse" system are designed.
The study of this paper has a certain practical significance for improving the emergency decision making method of railway emergency emergency and improving the level of emergency decision of railway emergency. At the same time, it provides a theoretical basis for the study of the artificial intelligence technology of case-based reasoning, the theory of multi attribute group decision making and the combination of decision support system.
【學位授予單位】：中國鐵道科學研究院
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：U298

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