【摘要】：地球溫暖效應(yīng)和氣候變化是二十世紀(jì)全球最危險(xiǎn)最重要的問(wèn)題。1990年開(kāi)始，隨著地球溫室效應(yīng)問(wèn)題越來(lái)越嚴(yán)重，，聯(lián)合國(guó)所采取的措施也漸漸具體化。氣候變化是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)直面的重要的環(huán)境問(wèn)題之一，尋找其應(yīng)對(duì)措施已經(jīng)是再也無(wú)法回避的課題了。地球溫暖化對(duì)自然生態(tài)界和經(jīng)濟(jì)，甚至人類(lèi)健康都造成極大地影響。對(duì)于自然界的影響有降雨量的變化、海水面的上升，以及生態(tài)混亂；對(duì)于人類(lèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)造成了農(nóng)業(yè)損害，經(jīng)濟(jì)的直接或間接損失，以及傳染病的急劇增加導(dǎo)致的健康威脅等。目前，全球?qū)τ跉庀螽愖兒蜕鷳B(tài)界的變化問(wèn)題會(huì)越發(fā)嚴(yán)重的憂(yōu)慮加劇。隨著各國(guó)漸漸開(kāi)始意識(shí)到氣候變化會(huì)導(dǎo)致臺(tái)風(fēng)洪水旱災(zāi)等自然災(zāi)害的頻率和受災(zāi)程度的加重，以聯(lián)合國(guó)為重心，針對(duì)氣候變化問(wèn)題的國(guó)際化協(xié)商體系正式開(kāi)始探討。 在意識(shí)到地球溫暖化是威脅人類(lèi)生存的主要原因的同時(shí)，為了緩和氣候變化，國(guó)際社會(huì)共同采取行動(dòng)，并且建筑名為國(guó)際性合作體制的國(guó)際氣候變化規(guī)范，著力于氣候變化問(wèn)題-聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候變化框架公約(UNFCCC)在1992年被采納后于1994年3月正式生效。UNFCCC是以人類(lèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)過(guò)程增加了大氣中溫室氣體濃度導(dǎo)致氣候變化的證據(jù)為前提，目的旨在共同努力減少溫室氣體和適應(yīng)氣候的變化。為了防止地球溫室效應(yīng)加劇，1992年聯(lián)合國(guó)在環(huán)境開(kāi)發(fā)會(huì)議中，采納了關(guān)于氣候變化的國(guó)際聯(lián)合基本協(xié)約。包含了具體實(shí)行計(jì)劃京都協(xié)議書(shū)以俄羅斯的基準(zhǔn)與2005年2月16日生效，為抑制溫室氣體排出正式開(kāi)始國(guó)際化的環(huán)境規(guī)定。 在2005年開(kāi)舉的第一屆協(xié)約當(dāng)事國(guó)總會(huì)中，根據(jù)協(xié)議書(shū)3.9條第一次公約期結(jié)束日為止，附屬的所有國(guó)家至少提前七年開(kāi)設(shè)工作集團(tuán)AWG-KP探討往后的公約內(nèi)容。與此同時(shí),在2007年第13屆締約方會(huì)議(cop13)中，采納了巴厘島行動(dòng)計(jì)劃(action plan bap:bali bap),不僅是協(xié)定的義務(wù)減排國(guó)家，為了讓協(xié)約上的所有國(guó)家共同協(xié)作而開(kāi)設(shè)工作集團(tuán)AWG-LCA。通過(guò)上述兩個(gè)工作團(tuán)的成立，將氣候變化協(xié)商分為兩個(gè)管理范疇， AWG-LCA在共享藍(lán)圖、縮減、適應(yīng)、財(cái)源、技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓方面，而AWG-KP主要致力于增設(shè)減排手段和減排范圍為主要課題。根據(jù)bap2009年第15次締約方會(huì)議(cop15)談判最后限定為多110個(gè)國(guó)家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人參加，受到了人們的關(guān)注,但主要經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)家在總會(huì)上單方面提交非正式協(xié)商成果“哥本哈根協(xié)議(copenhagenaccord)。這樣不透明的討論,大多數(shù)被排除在非正式協(xié)商中的發(fā)展中國(guó)家抗議后，結(jié)果最終協(xié)議文不是被正式采納而是在總會(huì)中被重視。因?yàn)楫?dāng)初設(shè)定的期間沒(méi)有達(dá)成協(xié)議，所以在2010年第16屆締約方會(huì)議(cop16)中延長(zhǎng)了期限，大體上采納了包含哥本哈根協(xié)議文內(nèi)容的坎昆協(xié)商(cancun agreement)，但重要爭(zhēng)論焦點(diǎn)未達(dá)成協(xié)議。2011年第17次締約方會(huì)議(cop17)在“坎昆協(xié)議”的重要成果是使綠色氣候基金(gcf:green climate fund,以下gcf)更加具體化,并決定從2012年開(kāi)始的同時(shí),規(guī)定《京都議定書(shū)》的第2次締約期限,并設(shè)定2020年以后適用于所有當(dāng)事國(guó)議定書(shū)以及其他法律體制的協(xié)商為主要內(nèi)容的“Durbanpackage”。.2011年在德班開(kāi)舉的COP17中，協(xié)商藍(lán)圖圍繞京都一期結(jié)束了的2012年后的京都體制延長(zhǎng)問(wèn)題和新體制構(gòu)建問(wèn)題，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家與發(fā)展中國(guó)家之間對(duì)立的持續(xù)進(jìn)行過(guò)程中，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家以京都體制延長(zhǎng)期限為前提條件，要求主要溫室氣體排放國(guó)家義務(wù)參與減排，并且還要求構(gòu)筑具有統(tǒng)一法律約束力的體制。然而另一方面，發(fā)展中國(guó)家本著“共同的差別化職責(zé)”原則，支持只有發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家義務(wù)減排延長(zhǎng)期限而發(fā)展中國(guó)家以技術(shù)、財(cái)政支援為前提的自發(fā)性的減排的雙軌制體制。在這一點(diǎn)上， COP17結(jié)果各發(fā)展中國(guó)家的要求事項(xiàng)，即以GCF出臺(tái)為動(dòng)力的2012年后的體制相關(guān)一攬子交易(package deal)的性格的評(píng)價(jià)。同時(shí),按照發(fā)展中國(guó)家的要求，協(xié)議《京都議定書(shū)》第2次締約期限延長(zhǎng),并且就這樣的發(fā)展中國(guó)家的意見(jiàn)作為2020年以后新氣候變化體制下的單一(single)法律形式達(dá)成協(xié)議。2011年12月第十七屆參與國(guó)大會(huì)（COP:Conference of the Parties,COP17）上德班綱領(lǐng)中提出了2020年以后所有國(guó)家在單一法律效力下構(gòu)建新的氣候變化體制的前景計(jì)劃。在考量使用至今的依據(jù)溫室效應(yīng)歷史責(zé)任確定各國(guó)不同法律責(zé)任的氣候變化體制時(shí)，題為單一法律效力的新的氣候變化體制（新氣候變化體制）的指向作用預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)更多樣化，并且能帶來(lái)根本性的變化。 對(duì)于包括能源在內(nèi)的資源枯竭的憂(yōu)慮正在增加，市場(chǎng)中的綠色產(chǎn)業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)也正在擴(kuò)大。以氫氣、燃料電池、太陽(yáng)光等綠色能源技術(shù)為基礎(chǔ)的能源市場(chǎng)，很可能會(huì)一躍成為一個(gè)超過(guò)IT,BT的巨大產(chǎn)業(yè)，作為新的成長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力，培養(yǎng)綠色能源的產(chǎn)業(yè)的必要性越來(lái)越大。在這種情況下，國(guó)際性的低碳綠色增長(zhǎng)作為國(guó)家競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的核心戰(zhàn)略正在興起。除此之外，耗能問(wèn)題的嚴(yán)重性、韓國(guó)溫室氣體排出量的持續(xù)增加、全球變暖日趨嚴(yán)重，受到這些問(wèn)題直接影響的韓國(guó)的實(shí)情來(lái)看，可以說(shuō)低碳綠色增長(zhǎng)是必然的選擇。不僅如此，低碳綠色增長(zhǎng)作為韓半島創(chuàng)造奇跡的未來(lái)戰(zhàn)略，韓國(guó)能源發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的研究將是非常必要的。 從國(guó)內(nèi)的背景來(lái)看，韓國(guó)的能量消費(fèi)問(wèn)題的嚴(yán)重性，韓國(guó)暖房氣體排出量的不斷增加，對(duì)應(yīng)全球變暖的脆弱性等分開(kāi)進(jìn)行說(shuō)明。國(guó)際社會(huì)在過(guò)去幾十年間就環(huán)境變化的問(wèn)題一直采取了觀望的態(tài)勢(shì)。在京都議定書(shū)中記錄還是發(fā)展中國(guó)家的韓國(guó)在過(guò)去20年中沒(méi)有任何就溫室氣體的相關(guān)規(guī)定，不斷增加使用天然燃料的數(shù)量來(lái)?yè)Q取經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力排全球前12為的韓國(guó)在過(guò)去半個(gè)世紀(jì)里專(zhuān)注于產(chǎn)業(yè)化，到現(xiàn)在為止只為地球氣溫上升問(wèn)題上給出“貢獻(xiàn)”，在阻止氣候變化的國(guó)際社會(huì)上所作的貢獻(xiàn)十分少。但是作為排名世界第12經(jīng)濟(jì)大國(guó)OECD會(huì)員國(guó)韓國(guó)以后成為義務(wù)監(jiān)督暖房設(shè)施國(guó)家的可能性十分大。并且因國(guó)際化競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的深入化，保持收益創(chuàng)出模仿形象不便的情況下現(xiàn)在的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力艱巨。韓國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)依靠?jī)r(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的資源消耗型和出口為中心的制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的確實(shí)性正逐漸降低并且化石燃料依存構(gòu)造對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)環(huán)境都有不可避免的負(fù)面影響。對(duì)能源需要不斷增加的現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)中對(duì)化石燃料的高依存無(wú)疑加深大氣環(huán)境污染。所以要通過(guò)轉(zhuǎn)換觀念完成新的國(guó)家發(fā)展契機(jī)。通過(guò)綠色轉(zhuǎn)換追求經(jīng)濟(jì)成長(zhǎng)和環(huán)境保護(hù)的新觀念正在抬頭。即通過(guò)將各產(chǎn)業(yè)價(jià)值鏈向低碳小型親環(huán)境型轉(zhuǎn)換來(lái)擴(kuò)大競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)開(kāi)發(fā)新興市場(chǎng)。所以要通過(guò)積極的意識(shí)和國(guó)家的努力將本是危機(jī)的氣候變化和能源問(wèn)題轉(zhuǎn)變成機(jī)會(huì)。由于產(chǎn)業(yè)構(gòu)造轉(zhuǎn)換成煤炭?jī)?chǔ)存所的方式，使產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展和環(huán)境問(wèn)題的解決走向良性循環(huán)，通過(guò)探索可持續(xù)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?jié)摿U(kuò)充方案，改善周邊生活環(huán)境，保全生態(tài)來(lái)滿(mǎn)足人們對(duì)舒適生活的要求，這就需要轉(zhuǎn)換政府的國(guó)定運(yùn)營(yíng)，企業(yè)的經(jīng)營(yíng)管理和國(guó)民的日常生活等政治，經(jīng)濟(jì)，社會(huì)等全部領(lǐng)域的基本模式。另外在汽車(chē)，造船，鋼鐵，半導(dǎo)體等基本主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)達(dá)到成長(zhǎng)周期臨界線的狀況下，新成長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力是引領(lǐng)韓國(guó)未來(lái)的希望動(dòng)力。由于煤炭?jī)?chǔ)存所經(jīng)濟(jì)背景的一致化，主要國(guó)家對(duì)新成長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力領(lǐng)域的關(guān)心也基本類(lèi)似。新成長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)業(yè)的關(guān)鍵詞可主要概括為信息產(chǎn)業(yè)，融合，環(huán)境，能源和生物等。韓國(guó)新成長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)業(yè)的培養(yǎng)政策和主要國(guó)家的政策基本類(lèi)似。這在不久的將來(lái)會(huì)形成熾熱的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中脫落的話將不能確保持續(xù)的成長(zhǎng)，因此必須在我們擅長(zhǎng)的領(lǐng)域中進(jìn)行選擇和集中問(wèn)題的研究。 對(duì)于過(guò)往經(jīng)濟(jì)成長(zhǎng)為主的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略而言，考慮環(huán)境問(wèn)題并提出可持續(xù)發(fā)展問(wèn)題的具有代表性的報(bào)告書(shū)是1972年由多個(gè)領(lǐng)域的學(xué)者共同參與的羅馬俱樂(lè)部完成的“成長(zhǎng)的限制”。根據(jù)這份報(bào)告書(shū)，以現(xiàn)今為止的人口增加、資源匱乏、環(huán)境污染趨勢(shì)來(lái)看，無(wú)法持續(xù)與過(guò)去一樣的經(jīng)濟(jì)成長(zhǎng)。為了環(huán)境的可持續(xù)發(fā)展，開(kāi)始追求零增長(zhǎng)戰(zhàn)略方式。以此為契機(jī)，持續(xù)商討可持續(xù)發(fā)展的問(wèn)題，開(kāi)發(fā)相關(guān)的理論，并把達(dá)成共同可持續(xù)發(fā)展為國(guó)家政策的主要議程。為此必須強(qiáng)化經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)境和社會(huì)發(fā)展這三個(gè)層面。另外，為了將此作為一個(gè)具體實(shí)質(zhì)性的政策而實(shí)施，強(qiáng)調(diào)了所有主體的共同的責(zé)任感，不僅僅是國(guó)內(nèi)，國(guó)際化治理也在不斷地強(qiáng)化。
[Abstract]:Global warming and climate change are the most dangerous and important issues in the twentieth century. Since 1990, as the global greenhouse effect has become more and more serious, the measures taken by the United Nations have gradually become concrete. Climate change is one of the most important environmental problems facing the world economy, and it is no longer possible to find a solution to them. The warming of the earth has a tremendous impact on the natural ecology and economy, even on human health. The impact on nature includes changes in rainfall, rising sea levels, and ecological chaos; agricultural damage to human beings and the economy, direct or indirect economic losses, and the sharp increase in infectious diseases. At present, the global climate change and ecological changes will become increasingly serious concerns. As countries gradually become aware that climate change will lead to typhoons, floods, droughts and other natural disasters, such as the frequency and severity of the increase, the United Nations-focused International Consultation System on climate change issues. Officially began to explore.
While recognizing that warming of the earth is a major threat to human survival, in order to mitigate climate change, the international community has jointly taken action and built an international climate change norm called the International Cooperation System, focusing on climate change - the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted in 1992 and in 1993 UNFCCC is based on evidence of climate change caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere as a result of human economic activity. It aims to work together to reduce greenhouse gases and adapt to climate change. The International Joint Basic Agreement contains the environmental provisions for the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, which takes effect on February 16, 2005, on the basis of Russia and formally starts internationalization to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
At the first general meeting of the contracting parties held in 2005, all the affiliated countries had opened a working group AWG-KP at least seven years in advance of the end of the first convention period, in accordance with Article 3.9 of the agreement. Meanwhile, the Bali Action Plan was adopted at the 13th Conference of the Parties (COP 13) in 2007. Bap: Bali bap) is not only a contractual obligation to reduce emissions, but also a working group, AWG-LCA, established to allow all countries in the agreement to work together. Through the establishment of these two working groups, climate change negotiations are divided into two management areas: AWG-LCA in the sharing of blueprints, reduction, adaptation, financial resources, technology transfer, and AWG-KP is mainly committed to increasing. Setting emission reduction tools and scope is the main topic. According to the final limit of 110 leaders to participate in the negotiation of the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP 15) in 2009, attention has been paid to this issue. However, the major economic countries unilaterally submitted the outcome of the informal consultation "Copenhagen Accord" at the general meeting. This is an opaque discussion. Most of the developing countries excluded from informal consultations protested, and the final agreement was not formally adopted but was taken seriously by the general assembly. The 17th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP 17) in 2011 achieved a significant result in making the Green Climate Fund (gcf) more concrete and decided to provide for the second contracting of the Kyoto Protocol, starting in 2012. Durban Package, which will be applicable to all protocols and other legal systems after 2020, was set as the main content. In COP 17, which was launched in Durban in 2011, the blueprint for negotiations centered on the extension of the Kyoto system after the first phase of Kyoto ended in 2012 and the construction of a new system, developed countries and developing countries. In the ongoing process of confrontation between countries, the developed countries, with the extension of the Kyoto regime as a prerequisite, require the major greenhouse gas emitters to participate in emission reduction obligations, and also require the establishment of a unified legally binding system. In this regard, COP17 results in the requirements of developing countries, namely, the introduction of GCF as a driving force for the post-2012 system-related package deal evaluation. At the request of developing countries, the second contracting period of the Kyoto Protocol is extended and the views of developing countries are agreed as a single legal form under the new climate change regime after 2020. The prospects for building a new climate change regime in all countries after 2020 under a single legal effect are proposed. When considering the climate change regime that has been used so far to determine the different legal responsibilities of each country based on the historical responsibility of the greenhouse effect, the new climate change regime with a single legal effect (the new climate change regime) is proposed. Use is expected to be more diverse and can bring about fundamental changes.
Concerns about resource depletion, including energy, are growing, and the growth trend of green industries in the market is expanding. Energy markets based on green energy technologies such as hydrogen, fuel cells and sunlight are likely to leap into a giant industry that surpasses IT and BT as a new growth engine to foster green energy. In this case, the international low-carbon green growth as the core strategy of national competitiveness is emerging. In addition, the seriousness of energy consumption problems, South Korea's greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, global warming is becoming increasingly serious, directly affected by these problems in South Korea's reality, it can be said that Low-carbon green growth is an inevitable choice. Moreover, low-carbon green growth as a miracle of the future strategy of the Korean Peninsula, South Korea's energy development strategy research will be very necessary.
In the domestic context, the seriousness of the energy consumption problem in South Korea, the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases in South Korea, and the vulnerability to global warming are explained separately. South Korea, which has no greenhouse gas regulations in the past 20 years, has been increasing its use of natural fuels in exchange for economic growth. The contribution of the international community is very small. But as the 12th largest OECD member country in the world, South Korea is very likely to become a country with compulsory supervision of heating facilities. The certainty of competitive resource-consuming and export-oriented manufacturing industry development strategies is gradually diminishing and fossil fuel dependence structures have unavoidable negative impacts on the economic and social environment. The new concept of pursuing economic growth and environmental protection through green transformation is rising, that is, expanding competitive advantages to develop emerging markets by shifting the value chains of various industries to low-carbon, small-scale, environmentally friendly ones. Climate change and energy issues are transformed into opportunities. As industrial structures are transformed into coal storage facilities, solutions to industrial development and environmental problems are in a virtuous circle. By exploring potential expansion schemes for sustainable economic development, we can improve the living environment around us and preserve the ecology to meet people's requirements for a comfortable life. In addition, under the condition that the basic leading industries such as automobiles, shipbuilding, steel and semiconductors have reached the critical growth cycle, the new growth power is the hope power to lead Korea in the future. The key words of new growth industries can be summarized as information industry, integration, environment, energy and biology. The training policies of new growth industries in South Korea are basically similar to those of the major countries. Competition, if lost in competition, will not ensure sustained growth, so we must choose and concentrate on research in areas where we are good at.
For past economic growth-oriented development strategies, a representative report on environmental issues and sustainable development was completed by the Rome Club in 1972 with the participation of scholars from various fields. In view of the trend of pollution, it is impossible to sustain the same economic growth as in the past. In order to achieve the sustainable development of the environment, zero growth strategy should be pursued. In addition, in order to implement it as a concrete and substantive policy, we emphasize the common sense of responsibility of all subjects, not only at home, but also at home.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：X32;F131.26

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