考慮滯后效應特征的國際競爭力評價方法研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-11 06:50
【摘要】：經(jīng)濟危機已使世界經(jīng)濟低迷運行5年,歐債危機的陰云逐漸蔓延,發(fā)達國家和發(fā)展中國家經(jīng)濟增長乏力,經(jīng)濟危機已經(jīng)迫使世界開始尋求在短期變革和長期變革的途徑。世界各國以及各個研究機構(gòu)開始對國家競爭力進行重新認識,認真反思其評價方式和評價體系,試圖從國家競爭力要素中找到提升本國經(jīng)濟增長的動力。中國也開始了從結(jié)構(gòu)層面尋找突破口,力圖通過經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型等方式來提振經(jīng)濟,提升國際競爭力。 本文以洛桑國際管理發(fā)展學院(International Institute for Management Development,簡稱IMD)提出的競爭力評價理論框架為基礎,采用1997年到2011年全球59個經(jīng)濟體面板數(shù)據(jù),利用自回歸分布滯后模型技術(shù),識別19個競爭要素對經(jīng)濟增長的長短期滯后效應特征,根據(jù)競爭要素的滯后效應特征,整合要素信息,構(gòu)建競爭力增長分指數(shù)和發(fā)展分指數(shù)；采用靜態(tài)比較方法,剝離IMD評價信息中的長期因素和短期因素,發(fā)現(xiàn)金融危機后,大部分發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體的短期競爭因素和長期競爭因素表現(xiàn)不平衡,短期因素表現(xiàn)較差,對競爭力排名的下拉作用明顯,而長期因素對競爭力排名作用不明顯。中國競爭力的短期因素和長期因素表現(xiàn)也不平衡,但不同于發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體,具有短期效應特征的競爭要素表現(xiàn)突出,能使競爭力總排名提升七位；具有長期效應特征的競爭要素表現(xiàn)較弱,會使競爭力總排名下降八位。進而對中國競爭力的短期增長與長期發(fā)展能力進行優(yōu)劣勢分析,提出優(yōu)化中國國際競爭力的思路和政策空間。本文提出的以競爭要素的滯后效應特征視角,整合競爭力要素信息的方法,為國家和區(qū)域競爭力評價研究提供了一個可供選擇的研究思路。
[Abstract]:The economic crisis has caused the world economy to slow down for five years, the European debt crisis has spread gradually, the economic growth of developed and developing countries has been weak, and the economic crisis has forced the world to seek ways to change in the short and long term. Countries and research institutions around the world began to re-understand the competitiveness of the country, seriously reflect on its evaluation methods and evaluation system, trying to find out from the elements of national competitiveness to promote the economic growth of their own power. China has also begun to seek a breakthrough from the structural level in an effort to boost the economy and enhance international competitiveness through economic transformation. Based on the theoretical framework of competitiveness evaluation proposed by Lobsang International School of Management and Development (IMD), this paper adopts the panel data of 59 global economies from 1997 to 2011, and uses the technology of autoregressive distributed lag model. According to the characteristics of lag effect of 19 competitive factors on economic growth, according to the characteristics of lag effect of competitive factors and integrating the information of factors, the index of competitive growth and the index of development are constructed, and the static comparison method is adopted. By stripping out the long-term and short-term factors in IMD evaluation information, it is found that after the financial crisis, the short-term competitive factors and the long-term competitive factors in most developed economies are not balanced, while the short-term factors are poor. The drop-down effect on competitiveness ranking is obvious, while long-term factors have no obvious effect on competitiveness ranking. The short-term factors and long-term factors of China's competitiveness are also unbalanced, but different from the developed economies, the competitive factors with short-term effects are outstanding, which can enhance the overall competitiveness ranking by seven places. The weak performance of competitive factors with long-term effect will reduce the total competitiveness ranking by eight places. Then the advantages and disadvantages of the short-term growth and long-term development of China's competitiveness are analyzed, and the ideas and policy space of optimizing China's international competitiveness are put forward. In this paper, the method of integrating the information of competitive factors from the perspective of lag effect of competitive factors provides an alternative approach for the evaluation of national and regional competitiveness.
【學位授予單位】：天津財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F113;F124;F224
本文編號：2235931
[Abstract]:The economic crisis has caused the world economy to slow down for five years, the European debt crisis has spread gradually, the economic growth of developed and developing countries has been weak, and the economic crisis has forced the world to seek ways to change in the short and long term. Countries and research institutions around the world began to re-understand the competitiveness of the country, seriously reflect on its evaluation methods and evaluation system, trying to find out from the elements of national competitiveness to promote the economic growth of their own power. China has also begun to seek a breakthrough from the structural level in an effort to boost the economy and enhance international competitiveness through economic transformation. Based on the theoretical framework of competitiveness evaluation proposed by Lobsang International School of Management and Development (IMD), this paper adopts the panel data of 59 global economies from 1997 to 2011, and uses the technology of autoregressive distributed lag model. According to the characteristics of lag effect of 19 competitive factors on economic growth, according to the characteristics of lag effect of competitive factors and integrating the information of factors, the index of competitive growth and the index of development are constructed, and the static comparison method is adopted. By stripping out the long-term and short-term factors in IMD evaluation information, it is found that after the financial crisis, the short-term competitive factors and the long-term competitive factors in most developed economies are not balanced, while the short-term factors are poor. The drop-down effect on competitiveness ranking is obvious, while long-term factors have no obvious effect on competitiveness ranking. The short-term factors and long-term factors of China's competitiveness are also unbalanced, but different from the developed economies, the competitive factors with short-term effects are outstanding, which can enhance the overall competitiveness ranking by seven places. The weak performance of competitive factors with long-term effect will reduce the total competitiveness ranking by eight places. Then the advantages and disadvantages of the short-term growth and long-term development of China's competitiveness are analyzed, and the ideas and policy space of optimizing China's international competitiveness are put forward. In this paper, the method of integrating the information of competitive factors from the perspective of lag effect of competitive factors provides an alternative approach for the evaluation of national and regional competitiveness.
【學位授予單位】：天津財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F113;F124;F224
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，本文編號：2235931
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