【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)理論基于不同假定，得出的結(jié)論也各不相同。有的強(qiáng)調(diào)投資，，有的強(qiáng)調(diào)技術(shù)等等�？傊�，經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)的原因在不同的理論中各不相同。 美國國家經(jīng)濟(jì)研究局的米契爾在對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期問題的研究中，拒絕接受任何先驗(yàn)的理論，而是挑選出了一些可能導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的因素，力圖通過對(duì)經(jīng)驗(yàn)事實(shí)的不偏不倚的歸納分析找出經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的原理。 受到米契爾的啟發(fā)，本文也試圖通過研究各種影響經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)的因素，從而發(fā)現(xiàn)中國改革開放后的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期特點(diǎn)。 改革開放以來，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)在高速增長的同時(shí)，也面臨著周期性波動(dòng)和不穩(wěn)定的難題。本文試圖研究我國改革開放以來經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)的新特征，分析其波動(dòng)的原因及其影響，這對(duì)于我們認(rèn)識(shí)新形勢(shì)下我國經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的客觀規(guī)律，把握我國經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)，適時(shí)適度地采取宏觀調(diào)控措施，保持國民經(jīng)濟(jì)高速、持續(xù)、協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展無疑具有重要的理論意義和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文從總需求、總供給等兩個(gè)方面的經(jīng)濟(jì)變量來研究中國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)。總需求主要包括消費(fèi)、投資和凈出口，總供給主要包括勞動(dòng)、資本存量。 本文主要采用的研究方法是定性和定量相結(jié)合，突出定量分析。擬使用的計(jì)量方法主要包括時(shí)差相關(guān)系數(shù)、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)等。因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)可以確定變量之間的因果方向，解釋宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的本質(zhì)特征。脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)是分析內(nèi)生變量對(duì)系統(tǒng)的沖擊效果。這些時(shí)間序列分析方法的運(yùn)用，將為本文的實(shí)證分析提供良好的基礎(chǔ)。本文主要采用時(shí)差相關(guān)系數(shù)、Granger因果關(guān)系分析、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)等時(shí)間序列方法來建立計(jì)量模型，并以此來分析各種經(jīng)濟(jì)因素對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)的影響。
[Abstract]:The theory of business cycle fluctuation is based on different assumptions, and the conclusions are different. Some emphasize investment, others emphasize technology and so on. In short, the reasons for cyclical fluctuations vary from theory to theory. In his study of the issue of the business cycle, Mitchell of the National Bureau of Economic Research rejected any transcendental theory and picked out some factors that might lead to the economic cycle. This paper tries to find out the principle of economic cycle through impartial inductive analysis of empirical facts. Inspired by Michele, this paper also tries to find out the characteristics of economic cycle after China's reform and opening up by studying various factors that affect the fluctuation of economic cycle. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy is growing at a high speed, but also facing periodic fluctuations and instability. This paper attempts to study the new characteristics of economic cycle fluctuation since the reform and opening up of our country, analyze the reason of its fluctuation and its influence, which is helpful for us to understand the objective law of our country's economic fluctuation under the new situation, and to grasp the development trend of our country's economic operation. It is undoubtedly of great theoretical and practical significance to take appropriate macro-control measures to maintain the high speed, sustained and coordinated development of the national economy. This paper studies the fluctuation of Chinese economic cycle from two aspects: aggregate demand and total supply. Total demand mainly includes consumption, investment and net export, total supply mainly includes labor, capital stock. The main research method used in this paper is the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis. The metrological methods to be used include time difference correlation coefficient, impulse response function and Granger causality test. Causality test can determine the causal direction between variables and explain the essential characteristics of macroeconomic system. The impulse response function is to analyze the impact effect of endogenous variables on the system. The application of these time series analysis methods will provide a good basis for the empirical analysis in this paper. In this paper, time series methods such as Granger causality analysis and impulse response function are used to establish the econometric model and to analyze the influence of various economic factors on the economic cycle fluctuations in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F124.8;F224

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