【摘要】：自從人類進入工業(yè)經(jīng)濟時代以來,氣候變暖、環(huán)境污染、能源危機等問題日漸凸顯,威脅著人類生存和可持續(xù)發(fā)展,引起了世界各國的強烈關(guān)注,因此以節(jié)能減排為背景的低碳經(jīng)濟應(yīng)運而生。我國正處于工業(yè)化和城市化加速發(fā)展的階段,能源消費和溫室氣體排放增長迅速,引發(fā)了一系列的能源安全及氣候問題,針對“引導(dǎo)和保障低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、減少二氧化碳排放”的研究逐步深入。河南省作為我國的傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)大省和新興的工業(yè)大省,在全面建設(shè)中原經(jīng)濟區(qū)的環(huán)境下,節(jié)能減排工作亟需加強。因此,河南省發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟具有十分重要的理論及現(xiàn)實意義。 本文在分析低碳經(jīng)濟相關(guān)理論的基礎(chǔ)上,從河南省及各地市的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、能源消費及碳排放的現(xiàn)狀出發(fā),運用LMDI因素分解法研究了1995-2011年的河南省的低碳經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)狀,指出了影響其發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵因素：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、能耗強度、能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)、人口增長等。同時依據(jù)系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)理論,建立了河南省低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,包括四個子系統(tǒng)：碳排放子系統(tǒng)、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展子系統(tǒng)、能源消費子系統(tǒng)以及社會支撐子系統(tǒng),以2000年為基準年,對此系統(tǒng)進行了仿真模擬。在驗證了該模型有效之后,通過設(shè)計不同的情境進行分析,對2012-2020年的低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展進行了預(yù)測,依此來探索河南省實現(xiàn)低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展目標的可行之徑。分析得出在保持現(xiàn)有的固定資產(chǎn)投資比例、試驗及研究投入比重及能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)不變的情況下,到2020年河南省碳減排的政策目標難以實現(xiàn),只有通過優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級、改善能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)及提高試驗及研究經(jīng)費的比重的路徑,才能實現(xiàn)河南省的低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展目標。 最后,結(jié)合河南省的實際提出了對策建議,首先應(yīng)建立完善的政策、財政及技術(shù)保障機制,其次堅持走低碳型的工業(yè)、農(nóng)業(yè)及城鎮(zhèn)的“三化”協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展之路,并形成全民參與低碳經(jīng)濟建設(shè)的格局,依此為基礎(chǔ)來減少溫室氣體的排放,實現(xiàn)河南省的低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展目標。
[Abstract]:Since mankind entered the industrial economic age, the problems of climate warming, environmental pollution, energy crisis and so on have become increasingly prominent, threatening the survival and sustainable development of mankind, which has aroused the strong concern of all countries in the world. Therefore, the low-carbon economy with the background of energy saving and emission reduction emerged as the times require. China is in the stage of accelerating industrialization and urbanization. Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are increasing rapidly, which has caused a series of energy security and climate problems. The study of reducing carbon dioxide emissions has gradually deepened. Henan Province, as a traditional agricultural province and a new industrial province in China, needs to be strengthened in energy saving and emission reduction under the environment of building the Central Plains Economic Zone in an all-round way. Therefore, the development of low-carbon economy in Henan Province has very important theoretical and practical significance. Based on the analysis of the theory of low carbon economy and the current situation of economic development, energy consumption and carbon emission in Henan Province and other cities, the present situation of low carbon economy in Henan Province from 1995 to 2011 is studied by using LMDI factorization method. The key factors influencing its development are pointed out, such as industrial structure, energy consumption intensity, energy consumption structure, population growth and so on. At the same time, according to the theory of system dynamics, the system dynamics model of low carbon economy development in Henan Province is established, which includes four subsystems: carbon emission subsystem, economic development subsystem, energy consumption subsystem and social support subsystem. Based on the year 2000, the system is simulated. After validating the validity of the model, this paper forecasts the development of low-carbon economy in 2012-2020 by designing different scenarios, and explores the feasible way to realize the development goal of low-carbon economy in Henan Province. Under the condition that the proportion of fixed assets investment, the proportion of experiment and research input and the structure of energy consumption remain unchanged, it is difficult to achieve the policy goal of reducing carbon emissions by 2020 in Henan Province, only by optimizing the industrial structure to upgrade. Only by improving the energy consumption structure and increasing the proportion of experimental and research funds can we realize the development goal of low carbon economy in Henan Province. Finally, according to the actual situation in Henan Province, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions. Firstly, we should establish a perfect policy, financial and technical guarantee mechanism, and second, we should adhere to the road of coordinated development of low-carbon industry, agriculture and cities and towns. And form the pattern that the whole people participate in the construction of low carbon economy, according to which to reduce the greenhouse gas emission, realize the development goal of low carbon economy in Henan province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：鄭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F205

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相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 周志;基于系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的廣東省低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展路徑選擇[D];華南理工大學(xué);2011年

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本文編號：2226412