本文選題：政府投資 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長��； 參考：《新疆財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來，中國GDP增長速度連續(xù)33年保持在9.8%左右。2008年中國名義GDP超過日本，位居世界第二位，中國成為世界上經(jīng)濟(jì)增速最快的地區(qū)。在這一經(jīng)濟(jì)過程中，政府投資扮演了非常重要的角色，尤其是在兩次金融危機后。理論上可知政府投資有一個最優(yōu)規(guī)模，在這個最優(yōu)規(guī)模前，政府投資的增加可以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長，但當(dāng)政府投資超過這一最優(yōu)規(guī)模時，政府投資的增加將會阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長。 新疆作為西部欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)，，地域遼闊，資源豐富，長期中具有巨大的發(fā)展?jié)摿ΑＴ诎l(fā)展過程中新疆政府提出了跨越式發(fā)展，但縱觀世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展史上那些實現(xiàn)跨越式發(fā)展的國家和地區(qū)，無一不是在經(jīng)濟(jì)起飛之前進(jìn)行了先行資本的投資，為私人投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展提供一個基礎(chǔ)。那么，新疆的政府投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系如何，本文將對二者的關(guān)系進(jìn)行試探性的研究，并在此基礎(chǔ)上給出相應(yīng)的政策建議。首先，本文給出了政府投資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的國內(nèi)外研究綜述和理論基礎(chǔ)，政府投資不僅僅對經(jīng)濟(jì)本身有影響，還且還會通過對私人投資的影響來共同對一國或一地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生作用，通過理論分析，得出政府投資存在一最優(yōu)規(guī)模。其次，通過古典線性回歸和VAR模型，對政府投資與新疆經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系、私人投資與政府投資之間的關(guān)系以及政府投資的最優(yōu)規(guī)模進(jìn)行了實證，得出了以下結(jié)論，政府投資每增加1%，新疆經(jīng)濟(jì)總量將會增加0.06%；政府投資對私人投資具有擠出效應(yīng)；政府投資的最優(yōu)規(guī)模為占GDP的11.06%。最后，根據(jù)第三、四、五章的實證結(jié)果，提出了以下三點建議：第一、根據(jù)不同的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段，合理界定政府投資的范圍；第二、合理調(diào)整政府投資的結(jié)構(gòu)、規(guī)模以及優(yōu)化政府投資效率；第三、加大新疆資本存量的形成，使其對私人投資產(chǎn)生正的外部性，促進(jìn)新疆經(jīng)濟(jì)的跨越式發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's GDP growth rate has remained at around 9.8 percent for 33 consecutive years. In 2008, China's nominal GDP surpassed Japan's, ranking second in the world, and China became the fastest growing region in the world. In this economic process, government investment has played a very important role, especially after the two financial crises. In theory, there is an optimal scale of government investment, before which an increase in government investment can promote economic growth, but when government investment exceeds this optimal scale, an increase in government investment will hinder economic growth. Xinjiang, as an underdeveloped region in the west, has a vast territory and abundant resources, and has great potential for development in the long run. In the process of development, the Xinjiang government proposed leap-forward development, but throughout the history of world economic development, all the countries and regions that have realized leap-forward development have invested in the leading capital before the economic take-off. Provide a basis for private investment and economic development. Then, what is the relationship between government investment and economic growth in Xinjiang, this paper will make a tentative study of the relationship between the two, and give corresponding policy recommendations on this basis. First of all, this paper gives the domestic and foreign research and theoretical basis of government investment and economic growth, government investment not only has an impact on the economy itself. In addition, the influence of private investment on the economy of a country or a region can be combined, and through theoretical analysis, it is concluded that there is an optimal scale of government investment. Secondly, through classical linear regression and VAR model, the relationship between government investment and Xinjiang economic growth, the relationship between private investment and government investment, and the optimal scale of government investment are demonstrated, and the following conclusions are drawn. For each increase in government investment, the total economic output of Xinjiang will increase by 0.06%; government investment will have an crowding out effect on private investment; the optimal scale of government investment is 11.06% of GDP. Finally, according to the empirical results of the third, fourth and fifth chapters, the following three suggestions are put forward: first, according to different stages of economic development, the scope of government investment should be rationally defined; second, the structure of government investment should be adjusted rationally. Third, increase the formation of capital stock in Xinjiang, make it produce positive externality to private investment, and promote the leap-forward development of Xinjiang economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F832.48

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