本文選題：平均消費(fèi)傾向 + 邊際消費(fèi)傾向��； 參考：《中共中央黨�！�2013年博士論文

【摘要】：擴(kuò)大居民消費(fèi)是關(guān)系到國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)、健康和可持續(xù)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵，也是提高人民生活和福利水平的重要途徑。在當(dāng)前全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)乏力導(dǎo)致外需持續(xù)疲軟的背景之下，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速開(kāi)始放緩，長(zhǎng)期存在的需求結(jié)構(gòu)失衡問(wèn)題依然存在，消費(fèi)需求不足尤其是居民消費(fèi)需求不足問(wèn)題嚴(yán)峻。居民消費(fèi)傾向是反映居民消費(fèi)特點(diǎn)和居民消費(fèi)偏好與意愿的重要指標(biāo)，是研究居民消費(fèi)問(wèn)題的重要視角。 本文以中國(guó)居民消費(fèi)傾向改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)總體持續(xù)下降這一現(xiàn)象作為切入點(diǎn)，深入分析了中國(guó)居民消費(fèi)傾向變化的特征及存在的問(wèn)題、中國(guó)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)狀況及存在的問(wèn)題，并闡述了制約居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的內(nèi)外因素，探討了導(dǎo)致居民消費(fèi)傾向下降的原因，分析了提高居民消費(fèi)傾向的必要性，提出“居民消費(fèi)傾向下降是個(gè)體理性選擇，卻可能導(dǎo)致收入被動(dòng)調(diào)整這一集體非理性結(jié)果”的觀(guān)點(diǎn)，對(duì)比分析了中國(guó)和美國(guó)、日本及南非的居民消費(fèi)傾向，并基于此提出了提高居民消費(fèi)傾向的對(duì)策建議。 我國(guó)最終消費(fèi)率下降主要是由居民消費(fèi)率下降引起的，居民消費(fèi)率下降在一定程度上是由居民消費(fèi)傾向下降引起的。改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)，我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)也有了快速增長(zhǎng)，但增長(zhǎng)速度慢于居民收入和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度，同時(shí)居民消費(fèi)也處于較低水平。中國(guó)城鄉(xiāng)居民平均消費(fèi)傾向總體上呈現(xiàn)出下降趨勢(shì)，其中城鎮(zhèn)居民平均消費(fèi)傾向自90年代以來(lái)呈現(xiàn)持續(xù)下降趨勢(shì)，農(nóng)村居民平均消費(fèi)傾向自改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)在波動(dòng)中下降，城鎮(zhèn)居民邊際消費(fèi)傾向呈現(xiàn)微弱的波動(dòng)下降趨勢(shì)，農(nóng)村居民邊際消費(fèi)傾向波動(dòng)幅度明顯大于城鎮(zhèn)居民，但未發(fā)現(xiàn)農(nóng)村居民邊際消費(fèi)傾向下降的跡象。城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)傾向的變化既表現(xiàn)出一定的共性，又表現(xiàn)出一定的差異，存在二元特征，就總體而言農(nóng)村居民平均消費(fèi)傾向略低于城鎮(zhèn)居民。除此之外，城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)傾向均表現(xiàn)出逆周期特征。城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)傾向下降是發(fā)生在居民收入快速增長(zhǎng)的背景之下，與此同時(shí)在居民收入和消費(fèi)絕對(duì)水平仍然不高的情況下，居民平均消費(fèi)傾向已經(jīng)下降至較低水平。 改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)，中國(guó)城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)明顯，但仍然存在城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)差距拉大和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)趨緩的問(wèn)題。制約城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的內(nèi)外因素包括節(jié)儉的傳統(tǒng)文化、人口結(jié)構(gòu)、收入水平、制度變遷、實(shí)際利率、信貸約束、產(chǎn)品供給狀況等。 導(dǎo)致居民消費(fèi)傾向持續(xù)下降的原因在于：人口因素方面，生育率和出生率下降、預(yù)期壽命延長(zhǎng)和死亡率下降導(dǎo)致人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生顯著變化，勞動(dòng)年齡人口比重上升，少兒撫養(yǎng)比下降明顯，老年撫養(yǎng)比略升，對(duì)居民消費(fèi)傾向下降具有一定解釋力。收入因素方面，居民收入快速增加、收入中暫時(shí)性比重增大和居民之間收入差距拉大，導(dǎo)致居民消費(fèi)傾向下降。制度因素方面，以市場(chǎng)化為導(dǎo)向的經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革，尤其是上世紀(jì)90年代以來(lái)教育、醫(yī)療和社會(huì)保障等領(lǐng)域的改革在快速提高居民收入水平的同時(shí)，，也導(dǎo)致居民收支不確定性增加，進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致居民預(yù)防性?xún)?chǔ)蓄增加。除此之外，有效供給不足、流通體系不健全和消費(fèi)信貸發(fā)展滯后都在一定程度上制約了居民消費(fèi)需求，壓低了居民消費(fèi)傾向。 居民平均消費(fèi)傾向下降，一方面為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長(zhǎng)提供了建設(shè)資金，另一方面也加劇了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)投資和出口的依賴(lài)，形成了過(guò)度依賴(lài)投資和出口的“體外循環(huán)”增長(zhǎng)模式。在需求約束型經(jīng)濟(jì)形態(tài)、工業(yè)化后期發(fā)展階段、外貿(mào)依存度較高、出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)逐漸喪失等背景之下，這種過(guò)度依賴(lài)投資和出口的“體外循環(huán)”增長(zhǎng)模式變得難以持續(xù)。居民消費(fèi)傾向下降是居民在收入快速增長(zhǎng)、收入差距拉大、社會(huì)保障建設(shè)滯后、社會(huì)撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān)比降低等環(huán)境之下做出的個(gè)體理性選擇，卻可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致居民收入水平降低或收入增速減緩的集體非理性結(jié)果，從個(gè)體理性到集體非理性的作用機(jī)制在于從“儲(chǔ)蓄-投資”和“儲(chǔ)蓄-未來(lái)消費(fèi)”兩個(gè)傳導(dǎo)通道的“漏出”�；谝陨显�，提高居民消費(fèi)傾向勢(shì)在必行。 提高居民消費(fèi)傾向應(yīng)著力從改善收入分配結(jié)構(gòu)、健全社會(huì)保障體系和塑造良好的消費(fèi)環(huán)境等方面著手。完善收入分配結(jié)構(gòu)，既包括提高居民收入占國(guó)民收入的比重，更包括通過(guò)稅收和轉(zhuǎn)移支付等手段實(shí)現(xiàn)更加均衡和公平的居民收入分配結(jié)構(gòu)。完善收入分配結(jié)構(gòu)要以促進(jìn)就業(yè)為抓手，尤其注重扶持中小企業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展。健全社會(huì)保障體系除提高社會(huì)保障水平之外，更要注重?cái)U(kuò)大社會(huì)保障體系的覆蓋面，實(shí)現(xiàn)城鄉(xiāng)社會(huì)保障一體化。在增加社會(huì)保障基金支出的同時(shí)，要注重降低個(gè)人籌資比重。塑造良好的消費(fèi)環(huán)境包括增加有效供給水平、鼓勵(lì)創(chuàng)新、健全流通體系和提高對(duì)居民消費(fèi)的金融支持水平。通過(guò)改善收入分配結(jié)構(gòu)、健全社會(huì)保障體系和塑造更加良好的消費(fèi)環(huán)境，提高居民消費(fèi)傾向，增強(qiáng)居民消費(fèi)欲望，進(jìn)而擴(kuò)大居民消費(fèi)，實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定、健康和可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Expanding the consumption of residents is the key to the smooth, healthy and sustainable development of the national economy. It is also an important way to improve the people's living and welfare level. In the background of the weak growth of the global economy, the growth of China's economic growth is slowing down, and the problem of the unbalanced demand structure still exists in the long term. The shortage of demand, especially the shortage of residents' consumption demand, is a serious problem. The tendency of residents' consumption is an important index reflecting the characteristics of residents' consumption and the preference and willingness of residents' consumption. It is an important perspective to study the problem of residents' consumption.
This paper, based on the overall continuing decline of Chinese residents' consumption tendency since the reform and opening up, analyzes the characteristics and existing problems of the change of Chinese consumption tendency, the status and existing problems of the consumption structure of Chinese residents, and expounds the internal and external factors that restrict the upgrading of the consumption structure of the residents. The reason for the declining tendency of residents' consumption is to analyze the necessity of improving the tendency of residents' consumption, and put forward that "the decline in the tendency of consumption of residents is individual rational choice, but may lead to the passive adjustment of the collective irrational results", and compares and analyses the consumption tendency of residents in China and the United States, Japan and South Africa, and based on this Countermeasures and suggestions to improve the consumption tendency of residents.
The decline of the final consumption rate in China is mainly caused by the decline of the consumption rate of residents. The decline of the consumption rate of residents is caused by the decline of the consumption tendency to a certain extent. Since the reform and opening up, the consumption of residents in China has also increased rapidly, but the growth rate is slower than that of residents' income and economic growth, and the consumption of residents is also in low water. In general, the average consumption tendency of urban and rural residents in China shows a downward trend in general. The average consumption tendency of urban residents has been declining since 90s. The average consumption tendency of rural residents has declined since the reform and opening up, the marginal consumption tendency of urban residents has a weak trend of fluctuation, and the rural residents' marginal consumption trend is declining. The fluctuation of the consumption tendency is obviously greater than that of the urban residents, but there is no sign of the decline of the marginal consumption tendency of the rural residents. The change of the consumption tendency of urban and rural residents shows a certain commonness and a certain difference, and there are two yuan characteristics. In general, the average consumption tendency of rural residents is slightly lower than that of the urban residents. In addition, The consumption tendency of urban and rural residents shows an inverse cycle characteristic. The decline of urban and rural residents' consumption tendency is under the background of the rapid growth of residents' income. At the same time, the average consumption tendency of residents has fallen to a lower level when the absolute level of residents' income and consumption is still not high.
Since the reform and opening up, the consumption structure of urban and rural residents in China has been upgraded obviously, but there is still a problem of widening the gap between urban and rural residents' consumption structure and the slow upgrading of the consumption structure. The internal and external factors restricting the upgrading of urban and rural residents' consumption structure include the traditional culture, the population structure, the income level, the institutional change, the real interest rate, the credit constraint, and the production. The supply condition of the product, etc.
The reasons for the continuing decline in consumption tendency are: population factors, the decline of fertility and birth rate, the prolongation of life expectancy and the decline of death rate, which lead to significant changes in the age structure of the population, the increase in the proportion of the working age population, the decrease of the child support ratio, the increase of the elderly dependency ratio, and the decline of the consumption tendency of the residents. In terms of income factors, the rapid increase in income, the increasing proportion of the income and the widening of the income gap between residents have led to a decline in the consumption tendency of the residents. In the aspect of institutional factors, the market-oriented reform of the economic system, especially in the 90s of the last century, was fast in the fields of education, medical and social security. At the same time, increasing the income level of the residents, it also leads to the increase of residents' income and expenditure, which leads to the increase of residents' Preventive Savings. In addition, the shortage of effective supply, the imperfect circulation system and the lag of the development of consumer credit have restricted the consumption demand of residents to a certain extent and lower the tendency of residents' consumption.
The average consumption tendency of residents declined, on the one hand, it provided construction funds for China's rapid economic growth, on the other hand, it also aggravated the dependence of economic growth on investment and export, and formed a "external circulation" growth model of excessive dependence on investment and export. In demand constrained economy, the latter stage of industrialization, and the dependence on foreign trade Under the background of higher export competitive advantage, the "extracorporeal circulation" growth model of excessive dependence on investment and export has become difficult to continue. The decline of residents' consumption tendency is the individual reason for residents' rapid growth in income, the widening of income gap, the lagging of social security construction and the reduction of social support burden ratio. Sexual choice may lead to the collective irrational results that reduce the income level of residents or slow the growth of income. The mechanism of the action from individual rationality to collective irrational is the "leakage" from the two channels of "savings investment" and "savings and future consumption". Based on the above reasons, it is imperative to improve the consumption tendency of residents.
In order to improve the consumption tendency of residents, we should focus on improving the structure of income distribution, improving the social security system and shaping a good consumption environment, and improve the structure of income distribution, including increasing the proportion of the income of the residents to the national income, and realizing the more balanced and fair income of the residents through the means of tax and transfer payment. In addition to improving the level of social security, we should pay more attention to expanding the coverage of social security system and realize the integration of social security in urban and rural areas, while increasing the expenditure of social security funds. We should pay more attention to reducing the proportion of individual financing. Shaping a good consumption environment includes increasing the level of effective supply, encouraging innovation, improving the circulation system and improving the level of financial support for residents' consumption. By improving the structure of income distribution, improving the social security system and shaping a better consumption environment, improving the tendency of residents' consumption and increasing the residents' consumption. Consumption desire, thereby expanding household consumption and achieving economic stability, health and sustainable development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中共中央黨校
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F126.1

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 聶壘壘;河南省居民收入、收入差距與消費(fèi)關(guān)系的實(shí)證研究[D];廈門(mén)大學(xué);2014年

本文編號(hào)：1975544