本文選題：稅收收入 + GDP增長�。� 參考：《湖南師范大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：作為市場經(jīng)濟中不可缺少的政府行為,稅收是政府財政收入的主要來源。稅收的增長與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展是分不開的,國民收入是稅收的基礎,沒有國民收入的增長,稅收增長就成了無源之水。另一方面稅收反作用于經(jīng)濟,對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展起著調(diào)節(jié)的作用。 2001年以來,隨著改革開放的進一步深化,作為湖南省南大門的郴州市經(jīng)濟得到了迅猛發(fā)展,稅收也呈現(xiàn)了不斷增長的勢頭。2001年-2012年十二年間,郴州市GDP的平均增幅為14.57%,稅收收入平均增幅為15.99%,二者基本都保持了兩位數(shù)的增長。同時,我們也看到,除了2004及2010年外,郴州市稅收增長速度一直超過GDP增長速度,2007、2008兩年稅收收入的增速約為同期GDP增長速度的2倍。十二年間,平均每年超GDP增長1.42%。郴州市稅收收入的增長與GDP的增長并不完全一致�；诖�,本文試圖對郴州市的稅收收入與GDP增長進行比較詳細的實證分析,以真實解讀郴州市的稅收收入與經(jīng)濟內(nèi)在的相互關系,為郴州稅收經(jīng)濟的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展提供相應的對策建議。 具體寫作中,本文采用了定性分析和定量分析相結(jié)合的方法,以求最大限度地揭示事實。對郴州市稅收與GDP之間的相關性分析結(jié)果表明,郴州市稅收收入與GDP總量之間呈現(xiàn)高度相關,相關系數(shù)高達0.988；從經(jīng)濟構(gòu)成看,稅收收入與消費和投資的相關系數(shù)分別為0.962和0.996,說明郴州市居民和政府的消費及投資對于該地區(qū)稅收收入有直接影響,稅收與凈出口的相關系數(shù)只有-0.175,表明凈出口對于郴州市稅收的作用不大；稅收增長率與GDP增長率相關系數(shù)為0.329,相關性不大。回歸分析的結(jié)果再一次說明郴州市稅收與GDP總量兩者存在長期的正向相互依存關系,模型的解釋力度高達95.1%；與此同時,稅收增長率可被GDP增長率解釋的部分僅為35.3%,這表明郴州市稅收收入的增長只有三分之一與經(jīng)濟增長相關。在稅收對經(jīng)濟的作用方面,對宏觀稅負與經(jīng)濟的回歸分析表明自2001年以來宏觀稅負與郴州市GDP增長率之間存在著一定的負相關性,宏觀稅負每增加(或減緩)1個百分點,GDP增長率就下降(或增長)0.495個百分點,這一定程度上可以說明,低稅政策能夠有利于郴州市GDP的增長。對郴州市稅收收入與經(jīng)濟增長差異的實證分析結(jié)構(gòu)表明稅收征管水平、外貿(mào)進出口以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)可以解釋86.6%的稅收增長與經(jīng)濟增長不協(xié)調(diào)的事實關系。其中二三產(chǎn)業(yè)占GDP的比重與稅收收入和經(jīng)濟增長的差異之間存在顯著的負相關關系,第二三產(chǎn)業(yè)占GDP的比重每增加1個百分點,稅收收入就會超GDP增長1.297個百分點；稅收征管水平增長率與稅收和GDP增長差異存在正相關關系,具體表現(xiàn)為稅收征管水平每提升1%將導致稅收增長超GDP增長0.109個百分點；進口貿(mào)易超GDP增長率則與稅收收入和經(jīng)濟增長間的差異呈正比,估計系數(shù)表明進口貿(mào)易超GDP增長率每增加一個百分點,即進口貿(mào)易增長超過GDP增長一個百分點,稅收增長與經(jīng)濟增長之間的差距就增加0.399個百分點。 針對實證分析的結(jié)論,文章最后提出了進一步促進郴州市稅收收入與經(jīng)濟協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的四條對策建議：即促進投資消費增長,積極培育經(jīng)濟增長點；切實落實減稅政策,促進經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展；優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),促進經(jīng)濟稅源健康增長；全面加強稅收征管,不斷提高征管效率。 文章同時對郴州市未來幾年的稅收收入進行了簡單預測。
[Abstract]:As an indispensable government behavior in the market economy, tax is the main source of government revenue. The growth of tax revenue can not be separated from the economic development, and the national income is the basis of the tax revenue. Without the growth of national income, tax growth becomes a passive water. On the other hand, tax revenue is counteracted on the economy and regulates the development of the economy. Effect.
Since 2001, with the further deepening of reform and opening up, Chenzhou, as the South Gate of Hunan Province, has developed rapidly, and the tax revenue has also shown a growing momentum in.2001 year twelve years -2012, the average growth rate of GDP in Chenzhou city is 14.57%, the average tax revenue growth is 15.99%, and the two people have basically maintained the two digit growth. At the same time, we also see that, in addition to 2004 and 2010, the growth rate of tax revenue in Chenzhou has been higher than the growth rate of GDP, and the growth rate of tax revenue in 20072008 years is about 2 times that of the same period of GDP. In twelve years, the average annual growth of GDP tax revenue in Chenzhou is not exactly the same as the growth of GDP. The paper makes a more detailed empirical analysis of the tax revenue and GDP growth in Chenzhou, in order to interpret the relationship between the tax revenue of Chenzhou and the internal economy, and provide the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the coordinated development of Chenzhou's tax economy.
In the specific writing, this paper uses a combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis in order to reveal the facts to the maximum extent. The correlation analysis between tax revenue and GDP in Chenzhou shows that there is a high correlation between the tax revenue of Chenzhou and the total amount of GDP, and the correlation coefficient is up to 0.988. The correlation coefficient of investment is 0.962 and 0.996 respectively, which shows that the consumption and investment of Chenzhou residents and government have a direct impact on the tax revenue in the region. The correlation coefficient of tax and net export is only -0.175, indicating that net export has little effect on Chenzhou's tax revenue; the correlation coefficient of tax growth rate and GDP growth rate is 0.329, and the correlation is not relevant. The results of the regression analysis again show that there is a long-term positive interdependence between Chenzhou's tax revenue and the total GDP, and the model is explained by up to 95.1%. At the same time, the tax growth rate can be explained by only 35.3% of the GDP growth rate, which indicates that only 1/3 of the growth of tax collection in Chenzhou is related to economic growth. In terms of the role of tax on the economy, the regression analysis of macro tax burden and economy shows that there is a negative correlation between macro tax burden and the growth rate of GDP in Chenzhou since 2001. Each increase (or slowing down) of macro tax burden is 1 percentage points, and the growth rate of GDP decreases (or increases) by 0.495 percentage points, which can be explained to a certain extent. The tax policy can be beneficial to the growth of GDP in Chenzhou. An empirical analysis of the difference between tax revenue and economic growth in Chenzhou shows that the level of tax collection and management, foreign trade import and export and industrial structure can explain the fact that the 86.6% tax growth and economic growth are not coordinated. The proportion of the two or three industry to the tax revenue and the economy and the economy of the tax revenue and economy. There is a significant negative correlation between the growth differences. The proportion of the two or three industry to GDP increases by 1 percentage points, and the tax revenue will increase by 1.297 percentage points over GDP; the tax collection and management level growth rate is positively related to the tax and GDP growth differences, which is specifically shown that the tax collection and management level of 1% will lead to the tax growth exceeding the level. GDP growth is 0.109 percentage points, and the growth rate of import trade super GDP is proportional to the difference between tax revenue and economic growth. The estimate coefficient indicates that the growth rate of import trade exceeds GDP per percentage point, that is, the growth of import trade exceeds GDP by one percentage point, and the gap between tax growth and economic growth increases by 0.399 percent. Point.
In view of the conclusion of the empirical analysis, the article finally puts forward four countermeasures and suggestions to further promote the coordinated development of Chenzhou's tax revenue and economy: promoting the growth of investment and consumption, actively cultivating economic growth point, implementing the tax reduction policy, promoting the rapid economic development, optimizing the production structure and promoting the healthy growth of the economic tax source; The tax collection and management should be strengthened and the efficiency of the collection and management is constantly improved.
The article also makes a simple prediction of the tax revenue of Chenzhou in the next few years.
【學位授予單位】：湖南師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F812.7;F127

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