本文選題：消費(fèi)率 + MIMIC模型�。� 參考：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)資源會(huì)在消費(fèi)和各種類型的投資之間進(jìn)行劃分,其中用以衡量消費(fèi)占當(dāng)期國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值比例的消費(fèi)率對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有重要意義。近幾年來我國(guó)也一直強(qiáng)調(diào)擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需,提振消費(fèi),不過從統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒數(shù)據(jù)來看,我國(guó)近年來的最終消費(fèi)率有連續(xù)下降趨向,且遠(yuǎn)低于全球平均水平,與典型發(fā)展中國(guó)家相比也明顯偏低。而如今隨著人們生活水平的提高,消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的不斷升級(jí),統(tǒng)計(jì)體系不再能正確涵蓋人們消費(fèi)的方方面面,持續(xù)下降的消費(fèi)率數(shù)據(jù)不能反映真實(shí)的消費(fèi)情況。本文從宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)入手,利用結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型中的MIMIC模型對(duì)我國(guó)消費(fèi)率進(jìn)行再測(cè)算,力圖得到相對(duì)真實(shí)的數(shù)據(jù)。同時(shí)就測(cè)算數(shù)據(jù)分析其與我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系。 第一章首先介紹了消費(fèi)率測(cè)算的背景與意義,給出研究?jī)?nèi)容和研究框架,并交代了本文的研究思路和內(nèi)容。第二章主要對(duì)消費(fèi)理論進(jìn)行梳理闡述,包括絕對(duì)收入假說等西方經(jīng)典消費(fèi)理論和基于我國(guó)國(guó)情的消費(fèi)理論應(yīng)用,以及對(duì)官方消費(fèi)率的變化分析。第三章是利用MIMIC模型對(duì)消費(fèi)率進(jìn)行測(cè)算研究。先從國(guó)民核算賬戶分析影響消費(fèi)的因素,再選取合適的外生和內(nèi)生變量,最后得到我國(guó)消費(fèi)率的測(cè)算數(shù)據(jù)。第四章就消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系展開分析,通過計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的分析方法,利用協(xié)整理論和誤差修正模型,分析消費(fèi)對(duì)GDP的貢獻(xiàn)度,及其與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系。最后第五章總結(jié)全文,給出結(jié)論和政策建議。 本文測(cè)算的消費(fèi)率數(shù)據(jù)整體上要高于統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒數(shù)據(jù),近幾年雖同樣呈下降趨勢(shì),但下降幅度更小,速度更慢。協(xié)整分析表明最終消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)存在較強(qiáng)的相關(guān)關(guān)系,且存在長(zhǎng)期的均衡關(guān)系。相比統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),估算消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用更弱。短期內(nèi),當(dāng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與當(dāng)期消費(fèi)、上一期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)正相關(guān),與上一期消費(fèi)負(fù)相關(guān)。
[Abstract]:Economic resources are divided between consumption and various types of investment, and it is of great significance to measure the proportion of consumption to GDP in the current period for the growth of national economy. In recent years, China has also emphasized expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption. However, from the statistical yearbook data, the final consumption rate of our country has a continuous downward trend in recent years, and is far below the global average. It is also significantly lower than the typical developing countries. Nowadays, with the improvement of people's living standard and the upgrading of consumption structure, the statistical system can no longer cover all aspects of people's consumption correctly, and the declining consumption rate data can not reflect the true consumption situation. This paper starts with the macroeconomic data and uses the MIMIC model in the structural equation model to recalculate the consumption rate of our country in order to obtain relatively real data. At the same time, the relationship between the measurement data and China's economic growth is analyzed. The first chapter introduces the background and significance of consumption rate measurement, gives the research content and research framework, and explains the research ideas and contents of this paper. The second chapter mainly discusses the consumption theory, including the absolute income hypothesis and the application of the consumption theory based on the situation of our country, as well as the analysis of the change of the official consumption rate. The third chapter is the use of MIMIC model to measure the consumption rate. The factors affecting consumption are analyzed from the national accounts, and then the appropriate exogenous and endogenous variables are selected. Finally, the data of consumption rate in China are obtained. The fourth chapter analyzes the relationship between consumption and economic growth. By means of econometric analysis, the contribution of consumption to GDP and the relationship between consumption and economic growth are analyzed by using cointegration theory and error correction model. Finally, the fifth chapter summarizes the full text, gives the conclusions and policy recommendations. The data of consumption rate calculated in this paper is higher than that of the statistical yearbook on the whole. Although it also shows a downward trend in recent years, the decline is smaller and the speed is slower. Cointegration analysis shows that there is a strong correlation between final consumption and economic growth and a long-term equilibrium relationship. Estimates of consumption have a weaker effect on economic growth than statistics. In the short term, current economic growth is positively correlated with current consumption, and negatively correlated with previous period consumption.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F126.1;F124.1;F224

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本文編號(hào)：1920487