本文選題：發(fā)展性消費(fèi) + ARIMA模型��； 參考：《河北大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：消費(fèi)是表征居民生活質(zhì)量和福利水平的重要指標(biāo)。為深入研究居民生活質(zhì)量水平，本文提出了發(fā)展性消費(fèi)的概念，并對其進(jìn)行分析。 本文在對發(fā)展性消費(fèi)的概念做出界定之后，選擇了一系列實(shí)證分析方法對我國城鄉(xiāng)居民發(fā)展性消費(fèi)從多個角度進(jìn)行分析。由于我國存在著城鄉(xiāng)二元結(jié)構(gòu)，分析我國城鄉(xiāng)居民發(fā)展性消費(fèi)時采用了先對城鎮(zhèn)居民和農(nóng)村居民分別進(jìn)行分析,然后將兩者結(jié)合進(jìn)行對比分析的思路。在實(shí)證分析時，，首先采用描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析方法展現(xiàn)我國城鄉(xiāng)居民發(fā)展性消費(fèi)現(xiàn)狀，并采用ARIMA模型對今后幾年的發(fā)展性消費(fèi)變化趨勢進(jìn)行預(yù)測。接下來借用基尼系數(shù)指標(biāo)來衡量我國不同地區(qū)之間城鄉(xiāng)居民人均發(fā)展性消費(fèi)水平的差異性。最后，為反映地區(qū)間居民收入對居民發(fā)展性消費(fèi)的影響，采用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型研究了各地區(qū)發(fā)展性消費(fèi)隨收入變化而呈現(xiàn)出的不同特征。 研究結(jié)果表明，雖然近年來我國城鎮(zhèn)居民和農(nóng)村居民的人均發(fā)展性消費(fèi)都有大幅提高，但城鄉(xiāng)間差距依然較大�？上驳氖�，城鎮(zhèn)居民和農(nóng)村居民人均發(fā)展性消費(fèi)的差異近來呈現(xiàn)出縮小趨勢。全國人均發(fā)展性消費(fèi)基尼系數(shù)測算結(jié)果和面板數(shù)據(jù)模型的研究結(jié)果表明，不但我國城鄉(xiāng)居民人均發(fā)展性消費(fèi)在地區(qū)間存在較大差異，而且居民收入對各地區(qū)居民人均發(fā)展性消費(fèi)的影響方式方面也存在很大差異。因此建議我國應(yīng)該在農(nóng)業(yè)政策實(shí)施、城鄉(xiāng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)和社會保障體系的完善等方面入手，為居民發(fā)展性消費(fèi)的持續(xù)健康發(fā)展提供保障。另外，為了調(diào)節(jié)收入對發(fā)展性消費(fèi)的影響，有必要盡快對收入分配制度進(jìn)行改革，縮小差距，消除因收入引發(fā)的發(fā)展性消費(fèi)水平差異。
[Abstract]:Consumption is an important indicator of the quality of life and the level of welfare of the residents. In order to study the quality of life of the residents, the concept of development consumption is put forward and analyzed.
After defining the concept of development consumption, this paper selects a series of empirical analysis methods to analyze the development of urban and rural residents in China from multiple angles. Since there is a two yuan structure in urban and rural areas in China, the analysis of urban and rural residents and rural residents is analyzed respectively in the analysis of urban and rural residents' development consumption. In the case of empirical analysis, the present situation of urban and rural residents' development consumption in China is presented by the descriptive statistical analysis method, and the ARIMA model is used to predict the trend of development consumption change in the next few years. The difference between urban and rural residents' per capita development consumption level. Finally, in order to reflect the impact of regional residents' income on Residents' development consumption, the panel data model is used to study the different characteristics of development consumption in each region with the change of income.
The results show that, although the per capita development consumption of urban and rural residents in China has been greatly improved in recent years, the gap between urban and rural areas is still large. The results of the data model show that there is a great difference between the urban and rural residents' per capita development consumption in China, and the influence mode of residents' income on the per capita development consumption in each region is very different. Therefore, it is suggested that China should implement the agricultural policy, the urban and rural infrastructure construction and the social security body. In addition, in order to regulate the impact of income on the development of consumption, it is necessary to reform the income distribution system as soon as possible to narrow the gap and eliminate the flat difference in the development of consumption caused by income.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F126.1

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