本文選題：貨幣總量　切入點：存差　出處：《中國社會科學(xué)院研究生院》2013年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近來我國理論界一直強調(diào)中國崛起的道路自信理論自信制度自信宣示自信，往往更需要憂患意識與批判性思考反思我國過去20年的經(jīng)濟，一直存在著總供給過剩的問題政府為解決內(nèi)需不足，持續(xù)培育消費熱點擴大基建投資強化轉(zhuǎn)移支付維持幣值穩(wěn)定與此同時，我國20年來金融體系產(chǎn)生的存差淤積以及M2過高，引起了學(xué)術(shù)界關(guān)于貨幣是否超發(fā)的熱議筆者認(rèn)為，這是由于我國實體經(jīng)濟與金融深化之間要素錯配經(jīng)濟社會轉(zhuǎn)軌陣痛造成的；在我國長期以來形成流動性勞動力產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)能四大過剩，實體經(jīng)濟總供給過剩與金融體系存差淤積之間相互交錯，構(gòu)成了我國經(jīng)濟第三類非均衡的核心特征；在今后很長時間內(nèi)，總供給過剩與金融過剩，將會是一直阻礙我國經(jīng)濟增長的主要矛盾 我國金融體系中的貨幣總量增長與存差淤積，是一個隱藏很深的體制問題它既體現(xiàn)我國貨幣被動超發(fā)，又反映商業(yè)銀行的表外逐利本文補足我國M2的統(tǒng)計缺失，發(fā)現(xiàn)我國在2012年底的貨幣總量已超過100萬億元其中92萬億元是存款籠中虎，92萬億元中有73萬億元是較為優(yōu)良的銀行信貸與債券資產(chǎn)；其中另外的27萬億元是整體存差，它相當(dāng)于我國歷史累積的貨幣發(fā)行量——該27萬億元中尚有18萬億元凈存差，構(gòu)成我國的超發(fā)貨幣貨幣超發(fā)情形下，我國實體經(jīng)濟的供需失衡與金融體系的存差淤積，是當(dāng)前我國生產(chǎn)要素錯配和分配機制矛盾尖銳化的外在表現(xiàn)本文分析我國六十三年來整體存差演進的過程，實證貨幣超發(fā)的問題，，探索我國金融體系與實體經(jīng)濟之間要素錯配的改進機制 筆者研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：第一，我國增量要素的投放追不上整體存差的擴大要素配置銜接不上資金可貸性需求實體經(jīng)濟與金融深化之間缺乏有機配合，都是阻礙我國投資轉(zhuǎn)化與資本形成的主要障礙；第二，存差過大，危害甚劇這意味著金融體系內(nèi)的貨幣超發(fā)存貸失衡金融媒介力漸弱系統(tǒng)脆弱性加大，同時持續(xù)加劇我國實體經(jīng)濟的主要矛盾，加重全社會對貨幣超發(fā)與分配不公的緊張和憂慮；第三，解決實體經(jīng)濟矛盾，必須抓住金融樞紐；化解我國存差淤積，亟需改進增量要素投放與存差淤積之間的匹配機制我國要做到管控少發(fā)多貸增量配齊可貸要素化解當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟的第三類非均衡，就必須完善我國再生產(chǎn)過程中增量投放人本盈需可貸要素的匹配機制，從而為生產(chǎn)者掃除按要素分配的體制障礙放松市場的末梢壟斷推進城市化中產(chǎn)業(yè)擴容在民生工程中塑造民生機制由此，更便于生產(chǎn)者找到合意的可貸項目暢通的投資渠道持續(xù)的收入預(yù)期 在未來我國的金融體制改革中，必須重新強化中國特色的財政金融搭配，以使我國存差緩解要素增配盡管整體存差本身易增難減，筆者認(rèn)為，只要建立要素增配的持續(xù)疏導(dǎo)機制，就將改變貨幣被動超發(fā)的狀態(tài)，我國的凈存差就會積極服務(wù)實體經(jīng)濟；此時，我國整體存差就會處于合意的范圍之內(nèi)
[Abstract]:Recently, the theory circle of our country has always stressed that the rise of the Chinese road confidence theory confidence confidence in the system that often requires more self-confidence, sense of urgency and critical thinking to reflect China's economy over the past 20 years, there has been a total government supply surplus in order to solve the problem of insufficient domestic demand, continue to cultivate the expansion of consumption of investment in infrastructure to maintain currency stability at the same time strengthen transfer payment the financial system of our country, have 20 years of deposit deposit and high M2, caused the academic circles about whether money is super hot in the author's opinion, this is due to China's real economy and the financial deepening mismatch between elements of economic and social transition pains caused by the long term in China; the formation of labor mobility products the four big surplus capacity, the real economy and the financial system supply excess deposit difference between interlaced deposition constitute China's economy, third kinds of non balanced core For a long time in the future, the total supply surplus and financial surplus will be the main contradiction that has hindered the economic growth of our country.
The amount of money in the financial system of China's growth and deposit deposit, is a hidden deep system it reflects China's monetary statistics over the lack of passive, but also reflects the commercial bank balance sheet profit the complement of China's M2, China in the amount of money at the end of 2012 has over 100 trillion yuan of which 92 trillion yuan deposit caged tiger 92 trillion yuan in 73 trillion yuan is the good bank credit and bond assets; the other is the whole 27 trillion yuan deposit, it is released in the history of our country, the cumulative amount of money 27 trillion yuan is 18 trillion yuan net deposit, a super currency currency over the situation in China, the imbalance between supply and demand of China's financial system and the real economy of the deposit deposit, is the contradiction between production factors and distribution mechanism in China with the wrong sharp appearance based on the analysis of China's sixty-three years of overall survival The process of differential evolution, the problem of the excess of empirical money, and the exploration of the improvement mechanism of the mismatch between the financial system and the real economy in China
The study found: first, China's incremental factors put not overtake overall deposit difference expanded on the link between capital allocation between the loan demand of real economy and financial deepening with a lack of organic, are the main obstacle to investment transformation and capital formation in our country; second, difference is too large, the harm is very drama this means that the financial system in the super currency loan financial imbalance force system to increase the vulnerability to the media, the main contradiction of the continuing development of China's real economy, increase the whole society on the super currency and the distribution of tension and anxiety injustice; third, to solve the real economy contradiction, we must seize the financial hub; resolve our deposit differential sedimentation, the urgent need to improve the incremental delivery and elements deposit difference between our deposit matching mechanism to do less control of multiple loan incremental loan to resolve the current economic factors have third kinds of non equilibrium, we must To improve the matching mechanism in the reproduction process of our country put the surplus to incremental loan elements, so as to remove the institutional barriers according to the distribution of market monopoly industry to promote the relax peripheral expansion of the city of the people's livelihood project in shaping mechanism of the people's livelihood producers, convenient production, find desirable loan project investment channels continued unimpeded expected income
In the future reform of financial system in China, finance must strengthen China characteristics collocation again, to make our difference with ease elements while the overall difference in itself is difficult to reduce, the author believes that as long as the establishment of elements with continuous leading mechanism, will change the currency is issued by the state, net deposit the poor will be the active service of the real economy; at this time, the whole country will be in a reasonable deposit range

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國社會科學(xué)院研究生院
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.2;F832;F124

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 劉超;濰坊銀行信貸業(yè)務(wù)拓展研究[D];蘭州商學(xué)院;2014年

本文編號：1646130