FDI對中亞經(jīng)濟的影響
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-13 10:17
【摘要】：20世紀90年代，中亞國家相繼獨立。蘇聯(lián)解體之后，俄羅斯國內問題成堆、自顧不暇，，中亞地區(qū)出現(xiàn)了政治、經(jīng)濟真空，世界各國紛紛進入。隨著世界對這一地區(qū)戰(zhàn)略地位認識的逐步加深，各國特別是大國在這一地區(qū)的競爭日趨激烈�！�9.11”事件后，中亞地區(qū)在國際反恐格局的特殊地位更得以凸顯，美國以阿富汗戰(zhàn)爭為契機，實現(xiàn)了在中亞的經(jīng)濟、政治和軍事存在。隨著歐盟邊界與中亞的日趨接近，歐盟從戰(zhàn)略視野上擴大和加強了與中亞合作的領域與措施，日本、土耳其、伊朗等國也以各種形式對中亞國家進行滲透，積極擴展在中亞的利益和影響力。 中亞作為世界的“心臟地帶”，有著重要的戰(zhàn)略地位，在國際地緣政治中發(fā)揮緩沖作用。中國在此有著重要的戰(zhàn)略利益，中國西北邊疆的穩(wěn)定、中國能源戰(zhàn)略的安全、中國經(jīng)濟的穩(wěn)定、持續(xù)發(fā)展都與中亞密切相關。經(jīng)濟是參與國際競爭的基礎，大國博弈日趨激烈的情況下，中國為了爭取在中亞博弈中的有利地位，加強與其的投資、貿(mào)易等經(jīng)濟合作是必要手段。正是基于大國博弈和經(jīng)濟全球化的大背景，使用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型從產(chǎn)業(yè)結構、對外貿(mào)易、就業(yè)三個層面對FDI對哈薩克斯坦經(jīng)濟的影響進行實證檢驗，對FDI對中亞國家經(jīng)濟增長的影響進行實證分析；使用灰色關聯(lián)度模型對FDI對烏茲別克斯坦的產(chǎn)業(yè)結構、吉爾吉斯斯坦的對外貿(mào)易和就業(yè)進行實證檢驗，研究FDI對中亞國家經(jīng)濟的影響。 實證結果顯示：FDI對哈薩克斯坦產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調整起到較為明顯的正向作用；對出口、進口、進出口的正效應顯著，具體商品類型間差別較大；FDI對其就業(yè)的影響也是相當可觀的，對不同行業(yè)就業(yè)人口、平均工資的影響程度存在差別與其行業(yè)特色、國情和戰(zhàn)略選擇不無關系。FDI對吉爾吉斯斯坦就業(yè)的影響是正面且顯著的；具體行業(yè)商品類型有所不同，對進口的影響大于出口。烏茲別克斯坦FDI的引入對不同行業(yè)的影響沒有形成顯著差別，產(chǎn)業(yè)結構沒有發(fā)生明顯的傾斜。FDI對中亞國家經(jīng)濟增長的影響哈薩克斯坦最大、其次是土庫曼斯坦，烏茲別克斯坦、吉爾吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦三國最小，這與中亞各國的資源環(huán)境、法律環(huán)境、投資政策、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展狀況等投資環(huán)境有關。最后給出中國對中亞國家投資的結論和啟示。中國對中亞投資過程中，應注意不同國家投資方式上的差異、對勞動力導向型投資的適當重視；礦產(chǎn)能源領域依然是中國對哈薩克斯坦直接投資的重要領域，建筑業(yè)、賓館和酒店行業(yè)是中國對中亞投資不可忽視的領域；制造業(yè)是中國對中亞投資的戰(zhàn)略選擇，而創(chuàng)新型農(nóng)業(yè)、服務業(yè)將是最有發(fā)展前途的行業(yè)之一；中國應繼續(xù)加大對中亞國家直接投資的力度，哈薩克斯坦、土庫曼斯坦仍將是最重要的市場。
[Abstract]:In the 1990 s, Central Asian countries became independent one after another. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's domestic problems were piled up, the Central Asian region appeared a political and economic vacuum, and the countries of the world entered one after another. With the gradual deepening of the world's understanding of the strategic position of this region, the competition between various countries, especially the big countries, in this region is becoming increasingly fierce. After the September 11 incident, the special position of Central Asia in the international anti-terrorism pattern has become even more prominent. Taking the war in Afghanistan as an opportunity, the United States realized its economic, political and military presence in Central Asia. With the increasingly close border between the EU and Central Asia, the EU has expanded and strengthened the fields and measures of cooperation with Central Asia from a strategic perspective. Japan, Turkey, Iran and other countries have also infiltrated Central Asian countries in various forms. Actively expand the interests and influence in Central Asia. As the heart of the world, Central Asia has an important strategic position and plays a buffer role in international geopolitics. China has important strategic interests. The stability of the northwest frontier of China, the security of China's energy strategy, the stability of China's economy, and the sustainable development of China's economy are closely related to Central Asia. Economy is the basis of participating in international competition. In order to gain a favorable position in the game of Central Asia, it is necessary for China to strengthen its investment, trade and other economic cooperation in order to gain a favorable position in the game of Central Asia. Based on the background of big country game and economic globalization, panel data model is used to test the impact of FDI on Kazakhstan's economy from three aspects: industrial structure, foreign trade and employment. Empirical analysis is made on the impact of FDI on the economic growth of Central Asian countries, and the industrial structure of Uzbekistan, foreign trade and employment of Kyrgyzstan are tested by using grey relational degree model. To study the impact of FDI on the economies of Central Asian countries. The empirical results show that: FDI plays an obvious positive role in the adjustment of Kazakhstan's industrial structure, and the positive effects on exports, imports and exports are significant, and the effects of FDI on employment among specific commodity types are quite considerable. For the employed population in different industries, the influence degree of the average wage is different with the characteristics of the industry, the influence of FDI on employment in Kyrgyzstan is positive and significant, and the commodity types of specific industries are different. The impact on imports is greater than that on exports. There is no significant difference in the impact of FDI in Uzbekistan on different industries. The industrial structure does not have a significant bias. FDI has the greatest impact on the economic growth of Central Asian countries, followed by Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are the smallest, which is related to the investment environment of Central Asian countries, such as resource environment, legal environment, investment policy and economic development. Finally, the conclusion and enlightenment of Chinese investment in Central Asian countries are given. In the process of China's investment in Central Asia, we should pay attention to the differences in investment patterns between different countries and give due attention to labour-oriented investment. Mineral energy is still an important area for China's direct investment in Kazakhstan. Hotel and hotel industry is an important field for Chinese investment in Central Asia, manufacturing industry is the strategic choice of China's investment in Central Asia, and innovative agriculture and service industry will be one of the most promising industries. China should continue to increase its direct investment in Central Asian countries. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan will remain the most important markets.
【學位授予單位】：新疆師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F831.6;F136
本文編號：2119017
[Abstract]:In the 1990 s, Central Asian countries became independent one after another. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's domestic problems were piled up, the Central Asian region appeared a political and economic vacuum, and the countries of the world entered one after another. With the gradual deepening of the world's understanding of the strategic position of this region, the competition between various countries, especially the big countries, in this region is becoming increasingly fierce. After the September 11 incident, the special position of Central Asia in the international anti-terrorism pattern has become even more prominent. Taking the war in Afghanistan as an opportunity, the United States realized its economic, political and military presence in Central Asia. With the increasingly close border between the EU and Central Asia, the EU has expanded and strengthened the fields and measures of cooperation with Central Asia from a strategic perspective. Japan, Turkey, Iran and other countries have also infiltrated Central Asian countries in various forms. Actively expand the interests and influence in Central Asia. As the heart of the world, Central Asia has an important strategic position and plays a buffer role in international geopolitics. China has important strategic interests. The stability of the northwest frontier of China, the security of China's energy strategy, the stability of China's economy, and the sustainable development of China's economy are closely related to Central Asia. Economy is the basis of participating in international competition. In order to gain a favorable position in the game of Central Asia, it is necessary for China to strengthen its investment, trade and other economic cooperation in order to gain a favorable position in the game of Central Asia. Based on the background of big country game and economic globalization, panel data model is used to test the impact of FDI on Kazakhstan's economy from three aspects: industrial structure, foreign trade and employment. Empirical analysis is made on the impact of FDI on the economic growth of Central Asian countries, and the industrial structure of Uzbekistan, foreign trade and employment of Kyrgyzstan are tested by using grey relational degree model. To study the impact of FDI on the economies of Central Asian countries. The empirical results show that: FDI plays an obvious positive role in the adjustment of Kazakhstan's industrial structure, and the positive effects on exports, imports and exports are significant, and the effects of FDI on employment among specific commodity types are quite considerable. For the employed population in different industries, the influence degree of the average wage is different with the characteristics of the industry, the influence of FDI on employment in Kyrgyzstan is positive and significant, and the commodity types of specific industries are different. The impact on imports is greater than that on exports. There is no significant difference in the impact of FDI in Uzbekistan on different industries. The industrial structure does not have a significant bias. FDI has the greatest impact on the economic growth of Central Asian countries, followed by Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are the smallest, which is related to the investment environment of Central Asian countries, such as resource environment, legal environment, investment policy and economic development. Finally, the conclusion and enlightenment of Chinese investment in Central Asian countries are given. In the process of China's investment in Central Asia, we should pay attention to the differences in investment patterns between different countries and give due attention to labour-oriented investment. Mineral energy is still an important area for China's direct investment in Kazakhstan. Hotel and hotel industry is an important field for Chinese investment in Central Asia, manufacturing industry is the strategic choice of China's investment in Central Asia, and innovative agriculture and service industry will be one of the most promising industries. China should continue to increase its direct investment in Central Asian countries. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan will remain the most important markets.
【學位授予單位】：新疆師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F831.6;F136
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