本文選題：風險識別 + 因素分析��； 參考：《華北電力大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：電能是國家發(fā)展的重要動力,同國民經(jīng)濟密切相關(guān),輸電網(wǎng)絡(luò)則是電能輸送的重要保證,建設(shè)高質(zhì)量的輸電線路是提供可靠、高質(zhì)量電能的基礎(chǔ)。輸電投資建設(shè)項目具有投資金額大、建設(shè)周期長、技術(shù)要求高、投資效果影響因素多等特點,并且項目風險受多個環(huán)節(jié)和因素影響,任何一個環(huán)節(jié)或者因素沒有處理好都會影響項目的進程,從而導(dǎo)致投資風險,造成輸電故障,甚至可能帶來重大的社會和經(jīng)濟損失。所以對輸電投資建設(shè)項目進行風險分析并給出相應(yīng)的管理策略,對輸電投資建設(shè)項目的順利開展,提高投資效益方面有著重要意義。 論文首先對輸電項目投資風險的理論進行了系統(tǒng)性的研究,重點分析了輸電項目投資的一般特征,對輸電投資風險進行了識別,并分析了風險影響因素。然后介紹了輸電項目投資評價分析的方法,并采用盈虧平衡分析法對輸電項目投資的經(jīng)濟風險進行了分析并進行了實證檢驗。得到盈虧平衡量越高,投資項目的風險越大；固定成本占總成本中比例越高,項目的風險系數(shù)就越高的結(jié)論。運用模糊綜合評價分析法對影響輸電投資風險的因素進行了分析,得出影響投資風險的主要因素有政治、經(jīng)濟和技術(shù)三個主要因素。最后,根據(jù)輸電項目存在的風險及影響因素,構(gòu)建了適合輸電項目投資風險防范與控制的體系。
[Abstract]:Electric energy is an important power of national development, closely related to the national economy, transmission network is an important guarantee of power transmission, the construction of high-quality transmission lines is the basis for providing reliable and high-quality electrical energy. Transmission investment and construction projects are characterized by large amount of investment, long construction period, high technical requirements, and many factors affecting investment effect, and the project risk is affected by many links and factors. Any failure to deal with any link or factor will affect the process of the project, resulting in investment risk, transmission failure, and even significant social and economic losses. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the risk of transmission investment construction project and give the corresponding management strategy, which is of great significance to the smooth development of transmission investment and construction project and the improvement of investment efficiency. In this paper, the theory of investment risk of transmission project is studied systematically, the general characteristics of investment of transmission project are analyzed, the risk of transmission investment is identified, and the influencing factors of risk are analyzed. Then, the paper introduces the method of investment evaluation and analysis of transmission project, and analyzes the economic risk of transmission project investment by using break-even analysis method and makes an empirical test. The higher the balance of profit and loss, the greater the risk of the investment project, and the higher the proportion of fixed cost to the total cost, the higher the risk coefficient of the project. The factors influencing the investment risk of power transmission are analyzed by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The main factors influencing the investment risk are political, economic and technological factors. Finally, according to the risk and influence factors of the transmission project, the system of preventing and controlling the investment risk of the transmission project is constructed.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.61;TM73

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