本文選題：局部戰(zhàn)爭 + 資金動員量�。� 參考：《北京理工大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：冷戰(zhàn)結(jié)束后,和平和發(fā)展成為當今時代的主流,世界多極化和經(jīng)濟全球化繼續(xù)曲折發(fā)展,總體和平穩(wěn)定,但因為領(lǐng)土、資源、民族、宗教等矛盾引發(fā)的局部戰(zhàn)爭和武裝沖突頻繁發(fā)生。我國面臨著錯綜復(fù)雜的國內(nèi)外政治與軍事環(huán)境,存在著諸多安全威脅。為實現(xiàn)國家統(tǒng)一、捍衛(wèi)國家安全和民族尊嚴,中國未來可能面臨通過局部戰(zhàn)爭的方式解決臺灣、南海諸島、釣魚島、藏南等問題。中國的軍費開支長期處于較低水平,發(fā)生局部戰(zhàn)爭需要財政金融動員,債券動員作為財政金融的重要手段,具備動員資金規(guī)模大,時效性較高的優(yōu)點,但債券具有有償性且債券動員對宏觀經(jīng)濟存在一定影響,因此債券動員必須考慮債券動員的成本以及經(jīng)濟的承受能力,將債券動員的規(guī)�？刂坪侠淼姆秶鷥�(nèi)。本文首先提出局部債券條件下債務(wù)動員研究的理由;然后從我國的政治、經(jīng)濟、社會的現(xiàn)狀出發(fā)分析局部戰(zhàn)爭條件下債券動員的基礎(chǔ),解決局部戰(zhàn)爭條件下能否債券動員的問題;進而從理論上分析局部戰(zhàn)爭條件下債券動員對宏觀經(jīng)濟造成的影響,同時結(jié)合債券動員的特點以及局部戰(zhàn)爭時期資金需求變化的特點進行債券動員的決策分析,解決局部戰(zhàn)爭條件下是否進行債券動員以及動員時機的選擇問題;最后,對局部戰(zhàn)爭條件下國債的風險進行評價,在國債風險可控制的前提下計算出局部戰(zhàn)爭條件債券動員潛力,并以2012年宏觀經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)做實證分析計算出局部戰(zhàn)爭條件下債券動員的規(guī)模,解決局部戰(zhàn)爭條件下債券動員規(guī)模的問題;最終順利得出結(jié)論與建議。
[Abstract]:Since the end of the Cold War, peace and development have become the mainstream of the present era, and the multipolarization of the world and economic globalization have continued to undergo twists and turns, with overall peace and stability, but because of territory, resources, and nations, Local wars and armed conflicts caused by religious conflicts occur frequently. China is faced with intricate domestic and foreign political and military environment, there are many security threats. In order to achieve national reunification and safeguard national security and national dignity, China may face the possibility of solving the problems of Taiwan, South China Sea Islands, Diaoyu Islands and South Tibet by means of local wars in the future. China's military expenditure has been at a low level for a long time. Local wars require fiscal and financial mobilization. As an important means of finance and finance, bond mobilization has the advantages of large scale of mobilization funds and high timeliness. But bonds are paid and bond mobilization has certain influence on macro-economy, so bond mobilization must consider the cost of bond mobilization and the bearing capacity of economy, and control the scale of bond mobilization within a reasonable range. This paper first puts forward the reasons for debt mobilization under the condition of local bonds, and then analyzes the basis of debt mobilization under the conditions of local war from the point of view of the present political, economic and social situation of our country. To solve the problem of whether bonds can be mobilized under the condition of local war, and to analyze theoretically the impact of bond mobilization on the macro economy under the condition of local war. At the same time, combining the characteristics of bond mobilization and the characteristics of the change of capital demand during the local war, the decision-making analysis of bond mobilization is carried out to solve the problem of whether to mobilize bonds and the choice of mobilization timing under the condition of local war. Finally, This paper evaluates the risk of national debt under the condition of local war, and calculates the mobilization potential of bonds under the condition of local war on the premise that the risk of national debt can be controlled. The scale of bond mobilization under the condition of local war is calculated by using the macroeconomic data of 2012, and the problem of the scale of bond mobilization under local war is solved. Finally, the conclusions and suggestions are drawn successfully.
【學位授予單位】：北京理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：E0-054

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