本文選題：茶黨運(yùn)動(dòng) + 投票行為�。� 參考：《華東師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：美國(guó)茶黨運(yùn)動(dòng)(Tea Party Movement)興起于2009年,它反對(duì)奧巴馬的民主黨政府,主張小政府和維護(hù)憲法、削減稅收和財(cái)政赤字,偏向右翼保守主義的價(jià)值立場(chǎng),反對(duì)墮胎、控槍、同性戀等。茶黨運(yùn)動(dòng)擁有完善的組織機(jī)構(gòu)和較為完善統(tǒng)一的運(yùn)動(dòng)訴求,依托與共和黨的緊密關(guān)系,獲得了資金、媒體宣傳渠道等多方面政治經(jīng)濟(jì)資源的支持,2010年具有茶黨背景的多名共和黨候選人成功當(dāng)選參議員,共和黨也借助這一運(yùn)動(dòng)奪回了在眾議院的控制權(quán),以及2016年茶黨運(yùn)動(dòng)組織為共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人唐納德·特朗普助選,足以看出茶黨運(yùn)動(dòng)對(duì)選舉政治具有顯著的影響。本文運(yùn)用美國(guó)國(guó)家選舉研究中心(ANES)2012年美國(guó)總統(tǒng)選舉的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)開(kāi)展實(shí)證研究,分析影響茶黨運(yùn)動(dòng)支持者投票行為的因素,發(fā)現(xiàn)茶黨運(yùn)動(dòng)支持者的社會(huì)屬性特征(social demographical characteristics)、政黨認(rèn)同(party identification)、議題立場(chǎng)(issue)等因素都對(duì)其投票行為產(chǎn)生了重要影響。茶黨運(yùn)動(dòng)支持者的政黨認(rèn)同偏向于共和黨。對(duì)茶黨運(yùn)動(dòng)支持者投票行為影響較大的議題立場(chǎng)主要有稅收議題、醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)議題、控制槍支議題、國(guó)防開(kāi)支議題、阿富汗戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)議題、墮胎議題、環(huán)保議題、打擊犯罪議題這8個(gè)議題。比較2012年和2016年兩次選舉數(shù)據(jù)的結(jié)果,我們可以看到,茶黨運(yùn)動(dòng)支持者的投票行為具有以下三個(gè)特征:一是對(duì)共和黨的政黨認(rèn)同趨于穩(wěn)定,茶黨運(yùn)動(dòng)支持者的政黨認(rèn)同傾向于共和黨,兩次選舉數(shù)據(jù)的結(jié)果也顯示其共和黨的政黨認(rèn)同比例幾乎沒(méi)有變化,茶黨運(yùn)動(dòng)支持者對(duì)共和黨的政黨認(rèn)同也說(shuō)明其對(duì)共和黨保守主義意識(shí)形態(tài)立場(chǎng)的認(rèn)同;二是候選人因素的影響比較明顯,具體而言就是相比于2012年共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人羅姆尼,茶黨運(yùn)動(dòng)支持者對(duì)2016年共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人特朗普并不滿意,這導(dǎo)致最后在選舉中,特朗普獲得的投票支持少于羅姆尼,茶黨運(yùn)動(dòng)支持者用選票表達(dá)了自己對(duì)這位候選人的不滿;三是議題立場(chǎng)仍是保守主義的價(jià)值立場(chǎng)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位,然而茶黨運(yùn)動(dòng)支持者的保守主義觀點(diǎn)在2016年選舉中出現(xiàn)了"削弱"的跡象,這說(shuō)明議題立場(chǎng)這類(lèi)短期因素具有較強(qiáng)的可變性。
[Abstract]:The Tea Party Movement, which rose in 2009, opposes Obama's Democratic administration, advocates small government and upholds the constitution, cuts taxes and fiscal deficits, favours right-wing conservatism, opposes abortion, gun control, homosexuality, and so on. The Tea Party movement has a sound organizational structure and a relatively perfect and unified movement appeal. It has received funds based on its close relationship with the Republican Party. With the support of various political and economic resources, such as media and propaganda channels, many Republican candidates with tea party backgrounds were successfully elected to the Senate in 2010, and the Republicans also used the campaign to regain control of the House of Representatives. And the 2016 Tea Party campaign's campaign for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is enough to show that the Tea Party movement has a significant impact on election politics. Based on the survey data of the 2012 US presidential election conducted by the National Electoral Research Center of the United States, this paper analyzes the factors that influence the voting behavior of Tea Party supporters. It is found that the social attributes of the supporters of the Tea Party movement and the social demographical characteristics, the identification of the political parties and the issue positions have a significant impact on their voting behavior. The Tea Party supporters' party identity is skewed towards the Republican Party. The main issues that have a great impact on the voting behavior of Tea Party supporters are tax issues, health insurance issues, gun control issues, defense spending issues, the war in Afghanistan, abortion issues, environmental protection issues. The eight topics are the issue of combating crime. Comparing the results of the 2012 and 2016 elections, we can see that the voting behavior of Tea Party supporters is characterized by the following three characteristics: first, the political identity of the Republican Party tends to stabilize. The Tea Party supporters of the party tend to favor the Republican Party, and the results of the two elections also show that their Republican party identity ratio has barely changed. The Tea Party supporters' approval of the Republican Party's political party also shows its approval of the Republican conservative ideological position. Second, the influence of candidate factors is more obvious, specifically, compared with 2012 Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney. Supporters of the Tea Party campaign were unhappy with the 2016 Republican presidential candidate, Trump, who eventually won fewer votes than Romney in the election, and expressed his displeasure with the candidate with votes. Third, the issue position remains the dominant position of conservative values, but the conservative views of Tea Party supporters showed signs of "weakening" in the 2016 elections. This indicates that such short-term factors as issue position have strong variability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：D771.2

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本文編號(hào)：1851307