本文關(guān)鍵詞：大氣污染治理對經(jīng)濟影響的CGE模型分析　出處：《對外經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 霧霾治理 CGE模型 大氣污染 情景模擬 中國經(jīng)濟

【摘要】：改革開放30多年以來,中國在政治、經(jīng)濟、教育、體育、軍事等眾多方面取得了舉世矚目的成就。然而,在環(huán)境方面尤其是大氣環(huán)境方面的問題卻日益突出。在此背景下,本文建立了一套動態(tài)多區(qū)域一般均衡模型,用以模擬分析各類大氣污染治理措施的治理效果及可能帶來的經(jīng)濟后果。在模型方面,本文改變了傳統(tǒng)文獻使用計量經(jīng)濟模型分析問題的思路,探索性地建立了多區(qū)域動態(tài)CGE模型。在現(xiàn)有研究成果中,使用該方法分析治理霧霾對經(jīng)濟影響的文獻并不多見。在模型的結(jié)構(gòu)設計方面,本文構(gòu)造了生產(chǎn)、消費、進出口、區(qū)域間調(diào)入調(diào)出、投資、污染物排放等多個模塊。此外,為了研究減排政策對當期及以后各期的影響,分析持續(xù)性減排政策的后果,本文以遞歸方式搭建了動態(tài)模塊,將模擬時期設定為2030年。在數(shù)據(jù)方面,本文采用最新可獲得的《2010年中國30省區(qū)市區(qū)域間投入產(chǎn)出表》。在地理范圍上,本文將中國劃分為長三角、東北、環(huán)京津冀、京津冀、南部、西北、西南、中部和珠三角九個地區(qū)。在情景設置方面,本文模擬了治理大氣污染常用的三類政策手段:污染稅、排放權(quán)交易機制和科技創(chuàng)新。在第四章,本文梳理了通過污染稅手段治理環(huán)境的經(jīng)濟學理論,從庇古稅、福利經(jīng)濟學等角度闡明了污染稅在治理環(huán)境時的經(jīng)濟學理論。本文梳理了大量研究文獻,總結(jié)了他們在模擬硫稅、碳稅時針對不同國家執(zhí)行稅率的分析經(jīng)驗,設定了4套適合中國當前經(jīng)濟發(fā)展狀況的污染稅政策。分別為單一低稅率情景(A01)、單一高稅率情景(A02)、時期差異化情景(A03)和地區(qū)差異化情景(A04)。模擬結(jié)果顯示:(1)實施污染稅政策能夠顯著地降低PM2.5年均濃度。(2)實施二氧化硫稅政策會增加名義GDP,但導致實際GDP下降。(3)在政策執(zhí)行或變動的當年,稅收政策對經(jīng)濟的沖擊最大,而后期變化幅度較小。(4)在某些地區(qū)執(zhí)行硫稅政策而其他地區(qū)不執(zhí)行時,執(zhí)行政策的地區(qū)污染排量降低,但不執(zhí)行政策的地區(qū)排量增加,即存在污染泄露問題。在第五章,本文根據(jù)對SO2排放量約束的不同程度設計了三種排放權(quán)交易情景,由寬松到嚴格依次B01、B02和B03情景。模擬結(jié)果表明:(1)實施排放權(quán)交易機制對SO2排放量進行管制,會導致中國實際GDP相對于基準情景下降、GDP平減指數(shù)上升、名義GDP上升。(2)在只有部分地區(qū)實行排放權(quán)交易制度的B01情景下,4個空氣污染嚴重的地區(qū)大氣質(zhì)量明顯好轉(zhuǎn),然而未實施政策的5個地區(qū)的PM2.5年均濃度反而高于基準情景。(3)SO2排放權(quán)交易價格在污染嚴重的地區(qū)明顯高于輕污染地區(qū),而且隨著時間的推移其價格越來越高。(4)實施二氧化硫排放權(quán)交易機制會導致各類商品的生產(chǎn)成本及銷售價格普遍上漲。在第六章,本文針對提高能源利用效率(D01)和能源清潔技術(shù)進步(D02)兩類科技進行了模擬情景設置,同時增加設置了科技進步與征收二氧化硫稅的復合情景(D03和D04)。模擬結(jié)果顯示:(1)提高能源利用效率能夠?qū)暧^經(jīng)濟和就業(yè)帶來一定的正面效應,同時有助于降低大氣中的污染物濃度。(2)在能效提高與硫稅復合的情景中,能效提高可以顯著地緩解甚至徹底抵消了征收污染稅對經(jīng)濟帶來的負面影響,同時大氣污染物排放量略有降低,就業(yè)量小幅上升。(3)大力發(fā)展能源清潔技術(shù)能夠緩解當前嚴重的霧霾問題;與硫稅政策同時執(zhí)行時,還有助于降低實際GDP的受損程度。(4)如果清潔技術(shù)足夠發(fā)達,那么硫稅對實體經(jīng)濟的抑制作用將大大降低,其經(jīng)濟總量與基準情景下的經(jīng)濟總量大體相當。在第七章,本文梳理了日本、美國、英國等5個發(fā)達國家曾經(jīng)遭受的大氣污染問題,歸納總結(jié)了它們治理大氣污染的成功經(jīng)驗。大氣污染問題幾乎是每個國家從落后走向發(fā)達的“必經(jīng)階段”,而且各國大氣污染最嚴重的時期大多處于它們的工業(yè)化、城市化進程中。然而,它們通過各自適合自身的措施成功地治愈了大氣污染問題。這些措施歸納起來可分為政府立法、科技創(chuàng)新、調(diào)整能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)和市場化行為等。根據(jù)本文的模擬結(jié)果及發(fā)達國家治理污染的成功經(jīng)驗,本文提出若干政策建議,以供政策制定者參考。首先,治理大氣污染必須從頂層設計入手進行統(tǒng)籌規(guī)劃。其次,中國必須加快環(huán)境保護類的法治建設,為治理大氣污染提供法律保障。再次,政府應該完善公民參與機制,充分調(diào)動起公民參與治理大氣污染的積極性。最后,提高科學技術(shù)水平是治理大氣污染的最根本、最有效的手段之一。此外,優(yōu)化能源消費結(jié)構(gòu),降低煤炭在一次能源消費中的比重是解決當前大氣污染最直接的途徑。值得一提的是,充分利用市場機制治理大氣污染是行政強制減排的有力補充,也能夠激勵企業(yè)進行技術(shù)革新,加快科技創(chuàng)新的步伐,還能夠引導能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)朝著更合理的方向調(diào)整。
[Abstract]:Since 30 years of reform and opening up, Chinese in politics, economy, education, sports, military and other aspects have made remarkable achievements. However, in terms of the environment especially the atmospheric environmental problems have become increasingly prominent. Under this background, this paper established a dynamic multi region general equilibrium model for simulation and analysis of governance all kinds of measures of air pollution control effect and the possible economic consequences. In the model, this paper changes the traditional literature uses econometric model to analyze the problems, explore the establishment of multi area dynamic CGE model. In the current research, analysis of governance haze on the economic impact of the literature using this method is rare in terms of structure design model, this paper constructs the production, consumption, import and export, regional transferred to transfer, investment, pollutant emissions and other modules. In addition, for the study of emission reduction policies Effect of current and future periods, sustainability analysis of emission reduction policy consequences, this paper recursively constructed dynamic module, the simulation period is set for 2030. In terms of data, this paper uses the regional China 30 provinces and municipalities in the latest available <2010 input output table. In the scope of science, this paper will China divided into the Yangtze River Delta, northeast ring, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, South, northwest, southwest, central and the Pearl River Delta region. The nine set in the scene, this paper simulates the governance of the three policy tools: air pollution pollution tax, emissions trading mechanism and technological innovation. In the fourth chapter, this paper reviews by means of environmental pollution tax economics theory, from the perspective of Pigou tax, welfare economics expounds pollution tax economics theory in the governance environment. This paper reviews many literatures, summarizes them in the simulation of sulfur tax, carbon tax Analysis of the experience of different countries in the implementation of tax clockwise, setting up 4 sets for the current economic development situation of the Chinese pollution tax policy. Low tax rates were for a single scenario (A01), a single high rate scenario (A02), time difference scenarios (A03) scenarios and area difference (A04). The simulation results show that: (1) the implementation of pollution tax policy can significantly reduce the annual concentration of PM2.5. (2) the implementation of sulfur dioxide tax policy will increase the nominal GDP, but led to the decline in real GDP. (3) or when the change in policy implementation, the impact of tax policy on the economy's largest, and later changed little. (4) the sulfur tax policy implementation in some areas, while other areas do not perform well when the implementation of the policy of regional pollution emissions decreased, but not the implementation of the policy area increase displacement, there is pollution leakage problem. In the fifth chapter, this paper designed three kinds of emissions according to different degrees of SO2 emission constraint Trading scenarios, from loose to strict order of B01, B02 and B03. The simulation results show that: (1) the implementation of emissions trading mechanism to control SO2 emissions, will lead to the actual GDP China decreased compared with the baseline scenario, the GDP deflator rose, nominal GDP rose. (2) the implementation of emissions trading system in the only part of the B01 scenario, 4 air pollution serious regional air quality improved significantly, the annual concentration of 5 regions but not the implementation of the policy of PM2.5 is higher than that of the baseline scenario. (3) SO2 emissions trading price in polluted areas was higher than that of the light pollution area, and with the passage of time, the price is more and more more high. (4) the implementation of sulfur dioxide emissions trading mechanism will lead to a general increase in all kinds of goods in the production cost and the selling price. In the sixth chapter, aiming at improving energy efficiency and clean energy (D01) technology (D02) Two kinds of technology to simulate scene setting, while increasing the composite scene setting and the progress of science and technology of sulfur dioxide tax (D03 and D04). The simulation results show that: (1) improve the efficiency of energy use can have a positive effect on the macro economy and employment, while helping to reduce the concentration of pollutants in the atmosphere (2. In the context of improving energy efficiency) and sulfur tax composite, energy efficiency can significantly alleviate or even completely offset the negative impact of pollution tax on the economy, while the emissions of air pollutants decreased slightly, the volume of employment slightly rise. (3) vigorously develop clean energy technology can alleviate the current severe haze problem; at the same time the implementation of with the sulfur tax policy, also help to reduce the damage degree of the actual GDP. (4) if the cleaning technology developed enough, then the inhibitory effects of sulfur tax on the real economy will be greatly reduced, and the base of its economy The total economic situation roughly. In the seventh chapter, this paper analyzes the United States, Japan, Britain and other air pollution problems in 5 developed countries have suffered, summarizes their successful experience of air pollution. The air pollution problem is almost every country from behind to developed "stage", and the serious air pollution in most countries during their industrialization, the city in the process. However, through their respective suitable measures to successfully cure the problem of air pollution. These measures can be sum up the legislation for the government, science and technology innovation, the adjustment of energy consumption structure and market behavior. According to the successful experience of the simulation results in this paper and the developed countries to control pollution, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions, for policy makers. First of all, air pollution must be from the top-level design of the system Planning. Secondly, we must accelerate the construction of the rule of law China environmental protection, provide legal protection for air pollution. Thirdly, the government should perfect the citizen participation mechanism, and fully mobilize the enthusiasm of the citizens to participate in air pollution control. Finally, improve the level of science and technology is the fundamental treatment of air pollution, one of the most effective means. In addition, the optimization of energy consumption structure, reduce the coal in the proportion of primary energy consumption is the most direct way to solve the current atmospheric pollution. It is worth mentioning that the full use of the market mechanism of air pollution governance is a powerful complement to administrative mandatory emission reduction, can also encourage enterprises to carry out technological innovation, accelerate the pace of technological innovation, but also to guide the energy consumption structure towards a more reasonable direction adjustment.

【學位授予單位】：對外經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X51;F127
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本文編號：1404038