發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-18 23:39

  本文選題：股票市場 + 現(xiàn)金股利　； 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：股利政策是上市公司向市場傳遞公司內(nèi)部信息的一種途徑,其中以現(xiàn)金股利的傳遞效應(yīng)最顯著而受到許多公司的青睞。在西方成熟的資本市場上,現(xiàn)金股利己經(jīng)成為最主要的一種股利分配方式。但是,我國的許多上市公司并沒有意識到股利分配的重要性,股利分配方式多樣化和復(fù)雜化、不分配公司占多數(shù)、派現(xiàn)的公司比例仍然不高、股利支付率低等現(xiàn)象表現(xiàn)相當(dāng)明顯。為了促進(jìn)我國資本市場的健康發(fā)展,證監(jiān)會(huì)于2004年開始頒布了各種關(guān)于股利政策的政策法規(guī),包括對現(xiàn)金股利分配的要求、加強(qiáng)監(jiān)督管理、讓上市公司樹立發(fā)放股利的意識等。 國內(nèi)外學(xué)者以及對現(xiàn)金股利政策進(jìn)行了非常多的研究。在國外成熟的資本市場上,現(xiàn)金股利分配確實(shí)具有傳遞效應(yīng),這已經(jīng)成為共識。然而,在我國這個(gè)正在發(fā)展的資本市場中,學(xué)者們對此存在著分歧,有的學(xué)者認(rèn)為現(xiàn)金股利政策具有傳遞效應(yīng),有的學(xué)者通過實(shí)證研究表明現(xiàn)金股利政策沒有傳遞效應(yīng)。那么,現(xiàn)金股利是否能夠傳遞有用的信息給投資者是一個(gè)值得研究的課題。本文就以這個(gè)為中心試圖回答一下幾個(gè)具體問題：(1)現(xiàn)金股利分配究竟有沒有信號傳遞效應(yīng)?即是說,我國目前的現(xiàn)金股利分配究竟能否向市場投資者傳遞上市公司的真實(shí)信啟、,傳遞了哪些信息?(2)如果股利分配沒有信號傳遞效應(yīng),或者說傳遞效應(yīng)很弱,那么為什么在我國股利分配不能傳遞信號,或者信號傳遞效應(yīng)很弱,原因是什么?(3)如果股利分配具有信號傳遞效應(yīng),或者說信號傳遞功能強(qiáng),那么為什么在我國股利分配能傳遞信號,原因是什么? 本文在綜述了現(xiàn)有的股利分配政策和分配理論,以及現(xiàn)有相關(guān)研究文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,本章通過選取22家現(xiàn)金股利增加和20家現(xiàn)金股利減少的上市公司的現(xiàn)金股利分配數(shù)據(jù)作為研究對象,運(yùn)用累計(jì)超額收益法對現(xiàn)金股利信號傳遞效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究,計(jì)算出股利分配公告日前后5個(gè)交易日的累計(jì)超額收益率并對其做了顯著性檢驗(yàn)。研究結(jié)果如下：(1)在現(xiàn)金股利增加組,在事件窗口內(nèi)的累計(jì)超額收益率圍繞零值小幅度的上下波動(dòng),但是并不顯著；在現(xiàn)金股利減少組,事件窗口內(nèi)的累計(jì)超額收益率穩(wěn)定增加,并且顯著不為零�？偟膩碚f,現(xiàn)金股利的增加不能導(dǎo)致股票價(jià)格的上升；現(xiàn)金股利的減少也不能導(dǎo)致股票價(jià)格的下降,反而對股票價(jià)格有正向反應(yīng)。(2)增加的現(xiàn)金股利沒有信號傳遞作用,這可以說明公司的管理層沒有對股利政策引起重視,沒有充分利用這一政策來傳遞有用的公司內(nèi)部信息給投資者,另外,投資者并沒有對現(xiàn)金股利增加這一信號進(jìn)行有效解讀,認(rèn)為現(xiàn)金股利的分配是理所應(yīng)當(dāng)、毋庸置疑的,是他們投資應(yīng)得的回報(bào)。(3)現(xiàn)金股利增加對于投資者沒有吸引力,說明我國在股利方面還有缺陷,和西方成熟的股票市場相比,還有一定的差距,需要我們繼續(xù)發(fā)展和完善。 本文的寫作基礎(chǔ)是建立在以前國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對于股利分配政策的研究基礎(chǔ)之上的,但是,在總結(jié)前人成果的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行了研究樣本的創(chuàng)新。大部分文章選取的進(jìn)行現(xiàn)金股利分配的公司并沒有區(qū)分其利潤是增加的還是減少的,本文選取上海交易市場上42家具有代表性的公司作為研究樣本,這42家公司都是利潤增加的,剔除利潤減少的公司的原因是利潤減少的公司本身不具備代表性,自身表現(xiàn)異常。所以本文選取的上市公司都是利潤增加的,以此作為本文的研究樣本。另外,文章選取最新的股利分配數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行研究,以了解最近資本市場上的股利分配的傳遞效應(yīng)情況。 誠然,本文主要的不足之處。比如,樣本數(shù)據(jù)不足。由于上證A股市場中的上市公司較多,文章限于篇幅和其他因素的影響,只選取了較有代表性的公司進(jìn)行了現(xiàn)金股利分配的研究,且來自各個(gè)不同的行業(yè)；并且本文對于進(jìn)行現(xiàn)金股利分配的公司只選擇了利潤增加的公司進(jìn)行了研究,因?yàn)槔麧櫆p少的公司本身就有一定的異常,以上兩點(diǎn)可能會(huì)對實(shí)證結(jié)果有一定的影響。還比如,分配形式的限制。由于現(xiàn)金股利是股利分配形式中最為重要的分配形式,所以本文只對42家上市公司的現(xiàn)金股利分配進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究,沒有與其他股利分配形式進(jìn)行比較分析。
[Abstract]:Dividend policy is a way to transfer the internal information of the listed company to the market. The transfer effect of cash dividend is most significant and favored by many companies. In the mature western capital market, cash dividend has become the most important way of dividend distribution. However, many listed companies in our country have not realized it. The importance of dividend distribution, the diversification and complexity of dividend distribution, not the distribution of the majority of the company, the proportion of the listed companies is still not high, the dividend payment rate is quite obvious. In order to promote the healthy development of the capital market in China, the Securities Regulatory Commission began to promulgate various policies and regulations about dividend policy in 2004. Cash dividend distribution requirements, strengthen supervision and management, so that listed companies to set up awareness of dividend payments.
Scholars at home and abroad and the cash dividend policy have carried out a lot of research. In the mature foreign capital market, the cash dividend distribution does have the transfer effect, which has become a consensus. However, there are differences between scholars in the developing capital market of our country, and some scholars believe that the cash dividend policy has a transmission. Some scholars have shown that cash dividend policy has no transfer effect through empirical research. Then, whether cash dividends can transfer useful information to investors is a subject worthy of study. This paper tries to answer several specific questions in this paper: (1) is there any signal transfer effect of cash dividend distribution? That is, what is the fact that the current cash dividend distribution in China can transfer the true letter of the listed company to the market investor and what information is transmitted? (2) if the dividend distribution does not have signal transfer effect, or if the transfer effect is very weak, then why the dividend distribution in our country can not transmit the signal, or the signal transfer effect is very weak, the reason is that What? (3) if the dividend distribution has the signal transmission effect, or the signal transmission function is strong, then why can the dividend distribution in our country transmit the signal, what is the reason?
On the basis of a summary of the existing dividend distribution policy and distribution theory, as well as the existing related research literature, this chapter uses 22 cash dividends and 20 cash dividends to reduce the cash dividend distribution of listed companies as the research object, and uses the cumulative excess return method to carry out the transfer effect of cash dividends. The results are as follows: (1) the cumulative excess rate of return in the event window is fluctuating around the zero value in the event window, but it is not significant; in the cash dividend reduction group, the case study is done. In general, the increase of cash dividend can not lead to the increase of stock price; the decrease of cash dividend can not lead to the decline of stock price, but it has positive reaction to the stock price. (2) the increase of cash dividend has no signal transmission effect, this can be said The management of Ming company has not paid much attention to the dividend policy. It does not make full use of this policy to transfer useful internal information to investors. In addition, investors do not have an effective interpretation of the increase of cash dividend. It is considered that the distribution of cash dividends is reasonable and unquestionable, the return of their investment. (3) the increase of cash dividend is not attractive to investors, which indicates that there are still some defects in our country's dividend, compared with the mature stock market in the west, there is a certain gap between us, and we need to continue to develop and improve it.
The basis of this paper is based on the research on dividend distribution policy, but on the basis of summarizing the previous achievements, the research sample is innovating. Most of the articles selected for cash dividend distribution companies do not distinguish whether their profits are increased or reduced. There are 42 representative companies in the sea market as research samples, and the 42 companies are all profit increasing. The reason for eliminating the loss of profits is that the companies with reduced profits do not have the representativeness themselves and their own performance is abnormal. Besides, the article selects the latest dividend data to study the transmission effect of dividend distribution in the recent capital market.
It is true that the main shortcomings of this article, such as the lack of sample data, are limited by the number of Listed Companies in the Shanghai stock market and the influence of the length and other factors in the A stock market. Only a representative company is selected for the study of cash dividend distribution and from different industries; and the cash dividend distribution is carried out in this paper. The company only chooses the company that has increased profits, because the company itself has a certain abnormal profit, and the above two points may have a certain impact on the empirical results. The company's cash dividend distribution has been empirically studied, and it has not been compared with other forms of dividend distribution.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.51;F224

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