本文選題：房地產(chǎn)泡沫 + 異質(zhì)性　； 參考：《青島大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展迅猛,并已迅速成為我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的快速發(fā)展不僅促進(jìn)了國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長,而且極大地滿足了人民群眾的居住需求。但與此同時(shí),我們也應(yīng)當(dāng)看到,我國的房地產(chǎn)市場價(jià)格,尤其是大中城市房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲過快,引發(fā)了關(guān)于房地產(chǎn)市場是否存在房地產(chǎn)泡沫的討論。如果房地產(chǎn)市場存有泡沫,一旦泡沫破滅將會對整個國民經(jīng)濟(jì)造成嚴(yán)重的負(fù)面影響。因此,對于房地產(chǎn)市場泡沫的研究就具有非常深遠(yuǎn)的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文旨在從異質(zhì)性角度對房地產(chǎn)市場泡沫進(jìn)行研究。其中理論部分以德隆的DSSW模型中的正反饋交易為基礎(chǔ),將原有模型的假設(shè)條件進(jìn)行改進(jìn)以使其符合我國房地產(chǎn)市場的實(shí)際情況,并以此研究現(xiàn)有房地產(chǎn)市場調(diào)控政策(如限購、二手房交易稅率、首付款比率等)對房地產(chǎn)市場泡沫的影響效果。研究表明,提高資金借貸利率、二手房交易稅率以及限購政策中的首付款比率能夠有效的抑制房地產(chǎn)市場泡沫的形成,而對于購置房產(chǎn)數(shù)量的限制則不能抑制房地產(chǎn)市場泡沫。 在實(shí)證分析方面,本文以上海市房地產(chǎn)市場價(jià)格為樣本,采用1997年-2005年的月度數(shù)據(jù),研究分析了人均收入、利率、股指收益、匯率以及前期房價(jià)等變量因素對于房地產(chǎn)市場價(jià)格波動的影響效果。本文同時(shí)運(yùn)用GARCH模型對上海市2005年后的房地產(chǎn)市場價(jià)格進(jìn)行了預(yù)測,并與實(shí)際值進(jìn)行比較,以此檢測政府房地產(chǎn)市場調(diào)控政策的有效性。實(shí)證分析表明：前期房價(jià)、匯率、人均收入和利率因素都對當(dāng)期房價(jià)波動具有顯著影響。同時(shí),前期房價(jià)、匯率、人均收入變化與當(dāng)期房價(jià)波動呈正相關(guān)趨勢,利率變化與當(dāng)期房價(jià)波動則呈負(fù)相關(guān)趨勢,而股指收益對當(dāng)期房價(jià)波動沒有顯著影響。運(yùn)用GARCH模型得出的預(yù)測結(jié)果與實(shí)際房地產(chǎn)市場價(jià)格的對比顯示：2005年后政府在房地產(chǎn)市場的調(diào)控政策對于房價(jià)上漲與房地產(chǎn)市場泡沫都有很好的抑制效果,但隨著時(shí)間的推移,調(diào)控政策對房市場市場價(jià)格的抑制效果有所降低,造成了房地產(chǎn)市場價(jià)格的小幅反彈。為此,本文認(rèn)為,政府應(yīng)進(jìn)一步出臺更為嚴(yán)厲的房價(jià)調(diào)控政策,以遏制房地產(chǎn)市場的投機(jī)性投資,保持房地產(chǎn)市場的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's real estate industry has developed rapidly, and has rapidly become the pillar industry of our economy. The rapid development of China's real estate industry not only promotes the rapid growth of the national economy, but also greatly meets the living needs of the people. But at the same time, we should also see that the real estate market prices, especially the real estate prices in large and medium-sized cities are rising too fast, which leads to a discussion on whether there is a real estate bubble in the real estate market. If there is a bubble in the real estate market, once the bubble burst, it will have a serious negative impact on the whole national economy. Therefore, the real estate market bubble research has a very profound practical significance. The purpose of this paper is to study the bubble of real estate market from the perspective of heterogeneity. The theoretical part is based on the positive feedback transaction in Delon's DSSW model. The hypothesis of the original model is improved to make it conform to the real estate market of our country, and the existing real estate market regulation policy (such as limiting purchase) is studied. Second-hand housing transaction tax rate, down-payment ratio and so on) to the real estate market bubble effect. The research shows that raising the interest rate of capital borrowing, the rate of second-hand housing transaction and the ratio of down payment in the policy of limiting purchase can effectively restrain the formation of real estate bubble, but the restrictions on the amount of property purchased can not restrain the bubble of real estate market. In the empirical analysis, this paper takes the Shanghai real estate market price as the sample, uses the monthly data from 1997 to 2005, studies and analyzes the income of per capita income, interest rate and stock index. The effect of exchange rate and housing price on real estate market price fluctuation. This paper also uses GARCH model to forecast the real estate market price in Shanghai after 2005, and compares with the actual value, so as to test the effectiveness of the government's real estate market regulation policy. The empirical analysis shows that the factors of house price, exchange rate, per capita income and interest rate have significant influence on the current house price fluctuation. At the same time, the change of house price, exchange rate and per capita income is positively correlated with the fluctuation of current house price, while the change of interest rate is negatively correlated with the fluctuation of current house price, while the return of stock index has no significant effect on the fluctuation of current house price. The comparison between the forecast results obtained by using GARCH model and the real estate market prices shows that the government's regulation and control policies in the real estate market after 2005 have a good restraining effect on both the housing price rise and the real estate market bubble, but with the passage of time, Regulation and control of the housing market price suppression effect has been reduced, resulting in a small rebound in real estate prices. Therefore, this paper holds that the government should further introduce more severe housing price control policies in order to curb speculative investment in the real estate market and maintain the stable development of the real estate market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;F224

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