本文關(guān)鍵詞： 住宅價格 財富效應(yīng) 成本效應(yīng) 需求 供給 消費　出處：《山西財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著住房體制改革的深入，住宅價格對宏觀經(jīng)濟的影響越來越顯現(xiàn)出來，其中住宅價格對消費的影響不但關(guān)系到居民生活及企業(yè)生產(chǎn)，同時也關(guān)系著我國轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟增長方式的大計方針。在我國，住宅價格是否具有成本效應(yīng)及財富效應(yīng)？其對消費的影響程度如何？我國住宅價格宏觀調(diào)控措施該走向何方？這些都是關(guān)系國計民生的問題。本文通過對我國及35個大中城市的相關(guān)基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建時間序列模型及面板數(shù)據(jù)模型，對我國住宅價格財富效應(yīng)及成本效應(yīng)進行定量研究。主要結(jié)論如下：首先，我國住宅價格具有正的財富效應(yīng)，且各大中城市的水平高于全國平均水平，而無論是全國水平還是各大中城市，住宅價格財富效應(yīng)要高于股票市場帶來的財富效應(yīng)。其次，我國住宅價格的上漲會增加居民居住成本，，進而影響居民生活成本，對消費需求產(chǎn)生影響，且不同地區(qū)人均實際居住支出存在較大差異，使得各地區(qū)對消費的需求各不相同。再次，我國住宅價格的上漲會增加企業(yè)成本，房價越高的城市，職工對于工資水平的要求也越高，企業(yè)面臨的勞動力成本也越大，可變成本上升，最終導(dǎo)致商品供給的波動。最后，對各大中城市進行因子分析后得出，影響住宅價格成本效應(yīng)的主要因子有成本因子及比重因子；聚類分析后得出，我國35個大中城市中北京、上海及深圳的住宅價格對居民和企業(yè)帶來的壓力最大，其供需關(guān)系存在較大矛盾，導(dǎo)致商品價格及產(chǎn)量的變化。在實證研究中，以我國大中城市數(shù)據(jù)作為基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)，利用相關(guān)性分析、回歸分析、因子分析、聚類分析等計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)分析技術(shù)進行定量研究，同時輔之以必要的定性分析支持和解釋。 本文共分六章,第一章為緒論部分,對文章的研究背景、研究目的與意義、研究方法、創(chuàng)新點及住宅價格的定義做了概括性闡述。第二章是國內(nèi)外文獻綜述部分，對國內(nèi)外對住宅價格財富效應(yīng)及成本效應(yīng)的研究成果進行了詳細闡述，并提出觀點。第三章通過建立時間序列模型及面板數(shù)據(jù)模型對我國住宅價格及消費的關(guān)系進行了回歸分析，實證檢驗了我國住宅價格的財富效應(yīng)。第四章通過建立面板數(shù)據(jù)模型，分析了住宅價格與居民居住成本、職工工資之間的關(guān)系，驗證了我國住宅價格具有成本效應(yīng)，并對35個大中城市的數(shù)據(jù)進行了因子分析及聚類分析，最后通過定量分析的結(jié)果研究了我國消費市場出現(xiàn)的供需矛盾。第五章對本文研究的結(jié)論進行了總結(jié)并提出進一步的研究工作結(jié)論部分。第六章根據(jù)研究結(jié)論提出了相關(guān)對策建議，認為我國應(yīng)當充分利用市場機制調(diào)節(jié)住宅價格，保障住房剛性需求者的需求，同時完善房地產(chǎn)二手市場及租賃市場，大力推進廉租房建設(shè)，完善房地產(chǎn)稅收制度，充分發(fā)揮正的財富效應(yīng)，減弱成本效應(yīng)，雙管齊下，促進房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)及宏觀經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the housing system reform, the impact of housing prices on the macro economy is becoming more and more obvious, and the impact of housing prices on consumption is not only related to the lives of residents and the production of enterprises. At the same time, it is also related to the policy of changing the mode of economic growth. In our country, whether the housing price has the effect of cost and wealth? What is its impact on consumption? Where should China's housing price macro-control measures go? These problems are related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. This paper constructs time series model and panel data model based on the relevant basic data of China and 35 large and medium-sized cities. The main conclusions are as follows: firstly, the housing price in China has a positive wealth effect, and the level of large and medium-sized cities is higher than the national average. The wealth effect of housing price is higher than the wealth effect brought by the stock market. Secondly, the rising housing price in our country will increase the resident's living cost and then affect the resident's living cost. It has an impact on consumer demand, and there are great differences in the actual living expenditure per capita in different regions, which makes the demand for consumption different in different regions. Thirdly, the rising of housing prices in our country will increase the cost of enterprises, the higher the housing prices, the higher the prices of cities. The higher the staff and workers' demand for wage levels, the greater the labor costs faced by enterprises, and the higher the variable costs, which ultimately lead to fluctuations in the supply of commodities. Finally, after factor analysis of major and medium-sized cities, it is concluded that, The main factors influencing the cost effect of housing price are cost factor and specific gravity factor. After cluster analysis, it is concluded that housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China bring the greatest pressure to residents and enterprises. The contradiction between supply and demand leads to the change of commodity price and output. In the empirical study, using the data of large and medium cities as the basic data, using correlation analysis, regression analysis, factor analysis, Cluster analysis and other econometric analysis techniques carry out quantitative research, supplemented by necessary qualitative analysis to support and explain. This paper is divided into six chapters, the first chapter is the introduction part, the research background, research purpose and significance, research methods, innovation points and the definition of housing price are summarized. The second chapter is the domestic and foreign literature review part. The research results of wealth effect and cost effect of housing price at home and abroad are expounded in detail. The third chapter analyzes the relationship between housing price and consumption by establishing time series model and panel data model. Chapter 4th analyzes the relationship between housing price and residents' living cost and employee's wages by building panel data model, and verifies that housing price has cost effect in China. The data of 35 large and medium cities were analyzed by factor analysis and cluster analysis. Chapter 5th summarizes the conclusion of this paper and puts forward the conclusion of further research. Chapter 6th is based on the conclusion of the research. Put forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions, We should make full use of the market mechanism to adjust the housing price, protect the demand of the rigid demand of housing, perfect the second-hand market and lease market of the real estate, vigorously promote the construction of low-rent housing and perfect the tax system of the real estate. We should give full play to the positive wealth effect, weaken the cost effect, and promote the sustainable development of the real estate industry and the macro economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 魏鋒;;中國股票市場和房地產(chǎn)市場的財富效應(yīng)[J];重慶大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2007年02期

2 王瑩;馮宗憲;;城市房地產(chǎn)價格成本效應(yīng)的理論與實證研究[J];上海經(jīng)濟研究;2008年04期

3 王蕾;趙巖;;中國城市房價上漲的財富效應(yīng)分析[J];價格月刊;2011年05期

4 何雄;;住宅價格的影響因素及理論模型研究——住宅價格理論的文獻綜述[J];經(jīng)濟經(jīng)緯;2009年05期

5 王軼君;趙宇;;房地產(chǎn)價格的財富效應(yīng)研究——基于中國1996～2010年的經(jīng)驗證據(jù)[J];經(jīng)濟問題;2011年05期

6 劉麗;劉愛松;;房地產(chǎn)市場財富效應(yīng)實證分析——基于廣州市房地產(chǎn)市場的經(jīng)驗證據(jù)[J];價值工程;2008年08期

7 周建軍;鞠方;;住宅價格波動與消費增長——基于中國數(shù)據(jù)的實證分析與理論解釋[J];科學(xué)經(jīng)濟社會;2008年02期

8 杜冰;;房地產(chǎn)市場財富效應(yīng)傳導(dǎo)機制探析[J];理論界;2011年01期

9 高春亮;周曉艷;;34個城市的住宅財富效應(yīng):基于panel data的實證研究[J];南開經(jīng)濟研究;2007年01期

10 劉旦;;中國城鎮(zhèn)住宅價格與消費關(guān)系的實證研究——基于生命周期假說的宏觀消費函數(shù)[J];上海財經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報;2008年01期

本文編號：1552916