【摘要】：中期財務(wù)報告作為年度財務(wù)報告的重要補充,彌補了年度財務(wù)報告周期過長的不足,為信息使用者提供了及時、有效的信息。從1993年國務(wù)院開始要求我國上市公司披露半年度財務(wù)報告起,時至今日,中期財務(wù)報告在我國已有20余年的發(fā)展歷史,中期財務(wù)報告的披露制度也在日趨完善。然而,獨立觀的編制基礎(chǔ)在保證了中期財務(wù)報告信息可靠性的情況下,中期財務(wù)報告信息的相關(guān)性如何也受到了大家的廣泛關(guān)注。因此,本文在借鑒國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究基礎(chǔ)上,對中期財務(wù)報告信息相關(guān)性的一個重要方面一預(yù)測價值進行了研究,為深入了解和證實我國中期財務(wù)報告信息的相關(guān)性以及如何提高中期財務(wù)報告信息質(zhì)量提供了參考依據(jù)。本文首先介紹了選題的背景及意義,綜述了目前中期財務(wù)報告預(yù)測價值的研究現(xiàn)狀。其次,對中期財務(wù)報告的相關(guān)理論進行了概述。再次,本文對影響中期財務(wù)報告預(yù)測價值的因素進行分析,并據(jù)此提出了相關(guān)研究假設(shè)。接著,以我國深證主板A股上市公司的中期財務(wù)報告為研究對象,采用九種中期報告預(yù)測模型和三種年度報告預(yù)測模型,選取每股收益和主營業(yè)務(wù)收入這兩個盈利指標(biāo)作為預(yù)測指標(biāo)對年度盈余進行預(yù)測,然后利用三種方法來分析我國中期財務(wù)報告是否具有預(yù)測價值。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文還檢驗了非強制性中期審計制度和ST、PT制度對中期財務(wù)報告預(yù)測價值的影響。最后,文章對實證檢驗的結(jié)果進行分析總結(jié),并提出相關(guān)的建議。本文的研究結(jié)論表明：與年度財務(wù)報告相比,我國中期財務(wù)報告具有相對較高的預(yù)測價值；中期審計有助于提高中期財務(wù)報告的預(yù)測價值；以主營業(yè)務(wù)收入為預(yù)測指標(biāo)時,普通上市公司中期財務(wù)報告的預(yù)測價值顯著優(yōu)于ST、PT上市公司的中期財務(wù)報告,但以每股收益為預(yù)測指標(biāo)時,普通上市公司中期財務(wù)報告的預(yù)測價值并不明顯好于ST、PT上市公司的中期財務(wù)報告。
[Abstract]:As an important supplement of the annual financial report, the interim financial report makes up for the deficiency of the long period of the annual financial report, and provides timely and effective information for the information user. Since 1993, the State Council began to ask the listed companies to disclose the semi-annual financial report. Up to now, the interim financial report has been developed for more than 20 years in our country, and the disclosure system of the interim financial report is becoming more and more perfect. However, under the condition of ensuring the reliability of the interim financial report information, the relevance of the interim financial report information has been paid more and more attention. Therefore, based on the relevant research at home and abroad, this paper makes a study on the predictive value, which is an important aspect of the correlation of interim financial report information. It provides a reference for further understanding and confirming the relevance of the interim financial report information and how to improve the quality of the interim financial report information. This paper first introduces the background and significance of the topic, and summarizes the current research status of the medium-term financial report forecast value. Secondly, the related theory of interim financial report is summarized. Thirdly, this paper analyzes the factors that affect the forecast value of interim financial statements, and puts forward the relevant research hypotheses. Then, taking the interim financial statements of the A-share listed companies on the main board of Shenzhen Stock Exchange as the research object, nine kinds of interim report forecasting models and three kinds of annual report forecasting models are adopted. This paper selects earnings per share and main business income as the forecast index to forecast the annual earnings, and then uses three methods to analyze whether the interim financial report of our country has the forecast value. On this basis, this paper also examines the impact of the non-mandatory interim audit system and STPT-system on the forecast value of interim financial statements. Finally, the paper analyzes and summarizes the results of empirical test, and puts forward relevant suggestions. The conclusion of this paper shows that: compared with the annual financial report, the interim financial report of our country has relatively high forecast value, the interim audit is helpful to improve the forecast value of the medium-term financial report, and when the main business income is used as the forecast index, The forecast value of the interim financial report of the common listed company is significantly better than that of the STPT-listed company, but when the earnings per share is taken as the predictor, The forecast value of interim financial statements of ordinary listed companies is not obviously better than that of STPT-listed companies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F275;F832.51

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