本文選題：金融開(kāi)放 + 短期跨境資本流動(dòng)　； 參考：《浙江大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(人文社會(huì)科學(xué)版)》2017年05期

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)金融開(kāi)放程度不斷提高,短期跨境資本流動(dòng)對(duì)資本市場(chǎng)的影響日益增強(qiáng)。在此背景下,構(gòu)建MS-VAR模型實(shí)證分析短期跨境資本流動(dòng)影響我國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,結(jié)果表明:(1)由于我國(guó)資本賬戶(hù)仍處于較嚴(yán)格的管制狀態(tài),短期跨境資本流動(dòng)對(duì)資本市場(chǎng)的直接影響較弱且不顯著;(2)在間接影響機(jī)制中,短期跨境資本流動(dòng)通過(guò)貨幣供給渠道的傳導(dǎo)沖擊作用較為強(qiáng)烈,而通過(guò)銀行信貸和匯率變動(dòng)渠道的傳導(dǎo)作用較弱;(3)當(dāng)受到外界突發(fā)事件沖擊時(shí),各變量波動(dòng)性顯著增加,并形成非對(duì)稱(chēng)效應(yīng)。針對(duì)金融開(kāi)放進(jìn)程下短期跨境資本流動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),應(yīng)構(gòu)建宏觀(guān)審慎視角下的跨境資本流動(dòng)管理框架,并促進(jìn)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策、宏觀(guān)審慎監(jiān)管和結(jié)構(gòu)性改革間的協(xié)調(diào)配合,從而有效防范系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn),維護(hù)我國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:With the increasing degree of financial opening, the influence of short-term cross-border capital flow on capital market is increasing. In this context, the MS-VAR model is constructed to analyze the transmission mechanism of short-term cross-border capital flows affecting the stability of China's capital market. The results show that the capital account of China is still under strict control. The direct impact of short-term cross-border capital flows on capital markets is weak and not significant. (2) in the indirect impact mechanism, short-term cross-border capital flows have a strong transmission impact through money supply channels. But the conduction effect of bank credit and exchange rate change channel is weaker than that of other countries) when it is impacted by the external unexpected events, the volatility of the variables increases significantly, and the asymmetric effect is formed. In view of the risk of short-term cross-border capital flows in the process of financial opening, we should construct a management framework of cross-border capital flows from a macro-prudential perspective, and promote coordination and coordination among macroeconomic policies, macro-prudential regulation and structural reforms. So as to effectively guard against systemic financial risks and maintain the stable development of our capital market.
【作者單位】： 浙江大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.51;F832.6

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