本文關鍵詞：中國短期國際資本流動的影響因素及風險控制　出處：《山西財經大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 短期國際資本流動 國際收支賬戶 利率 匯率 資本管制

【摘要】：2008年美國次貸危機爆發(fā)，使全球經濟陷入萎靡，2011年歐洲主權債務危機的全面升級又使全球金融局勢變得更加復雜和不穩(wěn)定，全球經濟正步履蹣跚的前行，國際間資本波動更加頻繁和難以預測。我國在2005年匯改后，實行有管理的浮動匯率制，資本市場逐漸開放，資本管制逐漸放松，為國際資本的流入提供了良好的市場基礎。短期國際資本流入為我國金融市場注入活力，也加快了我國資本市場開放進程。但是，近年來隨著人民幣升值壓力的持續(xù)攀升和資產價格的不斷上漲，越來越多的資本基于“套匯”“套利”的動機流入我國，我國國際資本流動的規(guī)模急劇擴大，特別是面臨短期國際資本大規(guī)模流入和逆轉帶來的影響沖擊。短期國際資本流動問題已引起理論界的多方關注。 本文闡述了短期國際資本流動的涵義及經典動因理論，包括利率決定論、匯率決定論、資產組合論和交易成本論。分別描述了全球資本流動現(xiàn)狀和中國資本流動現(xiàn)狀及特點，，總結了短期國際資本在我國的幾種流動渠道，包括經常賬戶下和資本賬戶下的正常流動渠道及“地下錢莊”“貨幣走私”等非法的隱蔽性流動渠道。在此基礎上用直接法和間接法對流入我國短期資本進行估算。分析得出當前短期國際資本流動的新特點和發(fā)展趨勢，并運用短期資本流動的動因理論，結合中國的實際經濟形勢分析了影響我國短期國際資本流動的因素有利率差、匯率差、證券市場價格及投資者的投資信心。其中利率差和投資者信心兩項因素影響顯著，其他因素與短期國際資本流動的相關性比較復雜。本文采用了實證建模的方法使研究更具有說服力。系統(tǒng)的分析了短期國際資本流動給中國經濟帶來的影響，最后提出了中國對短期國際資本流動進行管制的政策建議，包括對資本賬戶開放的管制，對匯率的管制及化短期國際資本為長期資本等對策建議。這些建議將對我國管理國際資本流動具有重要借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:In 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States, which brought the global economy into a slump. In 2011, the overall escalation of the European sovereign debt crisis made the global financial situation more complex and unstable. The global economy is stumbling forward, the international capital fluctuation is more frequent and unpredictable. After 2005, our country implemented the managed floating exchange rate system, the capital market gradually opened up. Capital control is loosening gradually, which provides a good market basis for the inflow of international capital. Short-term international capital inflow injects vitality into our financial market and speeds up the process of opening our country's capital market. In recent years, with the rising pressure of RMB appreciation and the rising of asset price, more and more capital flows into our country based on the motive of arbitrage and arbitrage, and the scale of international capital flow expands rapidly. Especially in the face of the impact of the large-scale inflow and reversal of short-term international capital, the short-term international capital flow has attracted the attention of many theorists. This paper expounds the meaning of short-term international capital flow and classical motivation theory, including interest rate determinism, exchange rate determinism. Portfolio theory and transaction cost theory. This paper describes the current situation of global capital flows and the current situation and characteristics of Chinese capital flows, and summarizes several short-term international capital flow channels in China. Including normal channels of movement under the current account and the capital account and "underground banks" and "money smuggling" On the basis of this, direct and indirect methods are used to estimate the inflow of short-term capital into China. The new characteristics and development trend of current short-term international capital flow are analyzed. Using the theory of the motivation of short-term capital flow, combined with the actual economic situation of China, this paper analyzes the factors that affect the short-term international capital flow of our country, such as interest rate difference and exchange rate difference. The stock market price and investor's investment confidence, among them interest rate difference and investor confidence two factors influence significantly. The correlation between other factors and short-term international capital flows is complex. This paper uses empirical modeling method to make the research more persuasive, and systematically analyzes the impact of short-term international capital flows on the Chinese economy. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the control of short-term international capital flows, including the control of opening the capital account. The countermeasures such as the control of exchange rate and the conversion of short-term international capital into long-term capital will be of great significance to China's management of international capital flows.
【學位授予單位】：山西財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51

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本文編號：1416058