【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中著名的“看不見(jiàn)的手”原則強(qiáng)調(diào)市場(chǎng)是組織經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的好方法,主張?jiān)诔浞指?jìng)爭(zhēng)的市場(chǎng)上開(kāi)展自由經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng),市場(chǎng)主體作為理性的經(jīng)濟(jì)人,會(huì)根據(jù)利益最大化原則在市場(chǎng)這只看不見(jiàn)的手的指揮下進(jìn)行交易。但若將“看不見(jiàn)的手”原則應(yīng)用于世界范圍內(nèi)國(guó)家之間的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策抉擇上,這只手將會(huì)產(chǎn)生失靈現(xiàn)象。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化使得國(guó)家之間的聯(lián)系越來(lái)越緊密,一國(guó)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策將不再僅作用于國(guó)內(nèi),而是會(huì)通過(guò)溢出效應(yīng)對(duì)其他國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生影響,若是任憑每個(gè)國(guó)家“各自為政”,往往會(huì)催生“以鄰為壑”的政策并導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟(jì)福利的減少。因此,研究國(guó)家之間的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策協(xié)調(diào)問(wèn)題對(duì)于促進(jìn)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展十分重要。伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的深入,國(guó)際宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制也在不斷演進(jìn)。2008年全球金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā)又一次凸顯了國(guó)際宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策協(xié)調(diào)的需要,為了應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī),各國(guó)團(tuán)結(jié)協(xié)作,推動(dòng)建立了新的國(guó)際宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制——G20領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人峰會(huì)。世界主要發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家通過(guò)G20平臺(tái)進(jìn)行了廣泛的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策協(xié)調(diào),有效地避免了危機(jī)的進(jìn)一步蔓延。G20逐漸取代G7成為國(guó)際宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策協(xié)調(diào)的新機(jī)制。因此,本文選取G20作為研究國(guó)際宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制的切入點(diǎn),通過(guò)對(duì)G20的產(chǎn)生、特點(diǎn)、運(yùn)行、議題等方面的分析明確G20機(jī)制協(xié)調(diào)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的方式,通過(guò)對(duì)G20宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策協(xié)調(diào)成果的分析明確G20在國(guó)際宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策協(xié)調(diào)領(lǐng)域內(nèi)的作用,根據(jù)在成效分析中暴露的問(wèn)題提出G20未來(lái)的改革方向。本文首先梳理了相關(guān)的基礎(chǔ)理論:博弈論基礎(chǔ)之上的最優(yōu)政策分析表明國(guó)際宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策協(xié)調(diào)的必要性——納什均衡是一種帕累托無(wú)效率的非合作均衡;蒙代爾-弗萊明模型證明了貨幣政策的溢出效應(yīng);哈馬達(dá)模型表明政策合作能夠帶來(lái)福利改進(jìn)。其次概述了國(guó)際宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制的四個(gè)發(fā)展階段:金本位制時(shí)期、布雷頓森林體系時(shí)期、G7體系時(shí)期、G20體系時(shí)期;闡述了G20的歷史演進(jìn)、特點(diǎn)、運(yùn)行機(jī)制、議題設(shè)置,G20成員國(guó)有代表性、運(yùn)行機(jī)制有靈活性,成員國(guó)內(nèi)存在利益不同的小集團(tuán)國(guó)。最后分析了G20宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策協(xié)調(diào)的成效和改革措施,以及中國(guó)面臨的機(jī)遇和挑戰(zhàn),提出了中國(guó)參與G20國(guó)際宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制的建議,應(yīng)充分利用好G20平臺(tái)并擴(kuò)展更多的合作機(jī)制,通過(guò)更廣范圍地布局經(jīng)濟(jì)金融網(wǎng)絡(luò)來(lái)提高中國(guó)在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)治理中的話語(yǔ)權(quán)。
[Abstract]:The famous "invisible hand" principle in economics emphasizes that the market is a good way to organize economic activities, and advocates that free economic activities should be carried out in a fully competitive market, and the market subject should be regarded as a rational economic man. Transactions will be carried out under the command of the invisible hand of the market in accordance with the principle of maximization of interests. But if the "invisible hand" principle is applied to macroeconomic policy choices between countries around the world, this hand will fail. Global economic integration makes countries more and more closely linked, and one country's macroeconomic policies will no longer act only at home, but will have an impact on the economies of other countries through spillover effects. Leaving each country "separate" tends to lead to beggar-thy-neighbour policies and a decline in global economic welfare. Therefore, it is very important to study macroeconomic policy coordination between countries to promote global economic development. With the deepening of economic globalization, the international macroeconomic policy coordination mechanism is also constantly evolutioning. the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 once again highlighted the need for international macroeconomic policy coordination, in order to deal with the crisis, countries unite and cooperate. Promoted the establishment of a new international macroeconomic policy coordination mechanism, the G20 leaders Summit. The major developed and developing countries in the world have carried out extensive macroeconomic policy coordination through the G20 platform, effectively avoiding the further spread of the crisis. G20 gradually replaced G7 as a new mechanism of international macroeconomic policy coordination. Therefore, this paper selects the G20 as the starting point to study the international macroeconomic policy coordination mechanism, and clarifies the way in which the G20 mechanism coordinates macroeconomic policies through the analysis of the emergence, characteristics, operation, issues and other aspects of the G20. Through the analysis of the results of G20 macroeconomic policy coordination, the role of G20 in the field of international macroeconomic policy coordination is clarified, and the future reform direction of G20 is put forward according to the problems exposed in the effectiveness analysis. This paper first combs the relevant basic theory: the optimal policy analysis on the basis of game theory shows the necessity of international macroeconomic policy coordination-Nash equilibrium is a kind of Pareto inefficient non-cooperative equilibrium; The Mondale-Fleming model proves the spillover effect of monetary policy, and the Hamada model shows that policy cooperation can bring about welfare improvement. Secondly, it summarizes the four development stages of the international macroeconomic policy coordination mechanism: the gold standard period, the Bretton Woods system period, the G7 system period, the G20 system period; This paper expounds the historical evolution, characteristics, operating mechanism, issue setting of G20 members, the representativeness of G20 member countries, the flexibility of operating mechanism, and the existence of small group countries with different interests in member countries. Finally, this paper analyzes the effectiveness and reform measures of G20 macroeconomic policy coordination, as well as the opportunities and challenges facing China, and puts forward some suggestions for China to participate in the G20 international macroeconomic policy coordination mechanism. We should make full use of the G20 platform and expand more cooperation mechanisms to improve China's voice in global economic governance through a broader layout of economic and financial networks.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中共中央黨校
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F113

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