【摘要】：受當(dāng)前國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)整體低迷影響,我國(guó)出口貿(mào)易增速放緩,2015年甚至出現(xiàn)出口規(guī)模下降情況。國(guó)內(nèi)來(lái)看,“新常態(tài)”下內(nèi)需不足、產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩等問(wèn)題進(jìn)一步顯現(xiàn),因此出口增長(zhǎng)新動(dòng)力變得極為重要。作為參與經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的兩種方式,直接投資和出口貿(mào)易的關(guān)系一直是學(xué)術(shù)界的研究熱點(diǎn)。隨著絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶戰(zhàn)略的實(shí)施,中國(guó)對(duì)其沿線國(guó)家直接投資和貨物出口額均出現(xiàn)快速上漲。那么二者之間是否存在一定的關(guān)系?前者的增長(zhǎng)對(duì)后者是否產(chǎn)生了影響?如果有,出口貿(mào)易又有多大程度是由中國(guó)對(duì)其直接投資拉動(dòng)所致?進(jìn)一步地,中國(guó)對(duì)絲路沿線國(guó)家的直接投資是否又間接提升了我國(guó)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)?未來(lái),戰(zhàn)略的推進(jìn)勢(shì)必引起中國(guó)對(duì)絲路沿線國(guó)家直接投資和出口貿(mào)易繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng),因此研究直接投資對(duì)出口貿(mào)易的整體和國(guó)別效應(yīng)顯得極為有價(jià)值。本文首先對(duì)對(duì)外直接投資的出口貿(mào)易效應(yīng)展開理論分析,其次對(duì)中國(guó)對(duì)絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家直接投資和出口貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行梳理總結(jié)。再次在實(shí)證部分,本文選取整個(gè)絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶和沿線八國(guó),利用2005—2015年中國(guó)對(duì)其直接投資、貨物總出口和資本技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品出口等數(shù)據(jù)分別建立九個(gè)時(shí)間序列以考察中國(guó)對(duì)絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家直接投資的出口貿(mào)易效應(yīng),得出結(jié)論如下:第一,中國(guó)對(duì)絲路沿線國(guó)家直接投資的出口規(guī)模效應(yīng)(1)表現(xiàn)為貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造;第二,中國(guó)對(duì)絲路沿線國(guó)家直接投資對(duì)我國(guó)出口貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)具有改善作用;第三,中國(guó)對(duì)絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家直接投資的整體出口貿(mào)易效應(yīng)(2)大于國(guó)別出口貿(mào)易效應(yīng);第四,我國(guó)對(duì)絲路沿線國(guó)家直接投資的出口貿(mào)易效應(yīng)具有國(guó)別差異,出口規(guī)模效應(yīng)由高到低依次是:阿聯(lián)酋、伊朗、俄羅斯、巴基斯坦、印度、沙特、土耳其、哈薩克斯坦;出口結(jié)構(gòu)改善作用由大到小依次是:俄羅斯、阿聯(lián)酋、沙特、伊朗、哈薩克斯坦、印度、巴基斯坦、土耳其;第五,中國(guó)對(duì)絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家直接投資無(wú)論從整體還是國(guó)別上來(lái)看,出口結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)普遍大于出口規(guī)模效應(yīng)。雖然我國(guó)對(duì)絲路沿線國(guó)家直接投資對(duì)我國(guó)的出口貿(mào)易效應(yīng)表現(xiàn)為“正”,但投資的拉動(dòng)作用還相對(duì)較小,這無(wú)疑與我國(guó)對(duì)其直接投資存量基數(shù)較小有關(guān)。未來(lái)隨著絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶戰(zhàn)略的推進(jìn),我國(guó)對(duì)其直接投資必進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng),其對(duì)出口貿(mào)易的拉動(dòng)效應(yīng)也將有所提升。
[Abstract]:Affected by the current international economic downturn, China's export trade growth slowed down, and even in 2015 export scale declined. At home, problems such as insufficient domestic demand and overcapacity in the "new normal" are becoming more and more important, so new drivers of export growth are becoming extremely important. As two ways to participate in economic globalization, the relationship between direct investment and export trade has always been a hot topic in academic circles. With the implementation of the Silk Road economic belt strategy, China's direct investment and exports to the countries along the Silk Road have increased rapidly. Is there a certain relationship between the two? Does the growth of the former have an impact on the latter? If so, to what extent is export trade driven by China's direct investment in it? Further, does China's direct investment in the countries along the Silk Road indirectly enhance the industrial structure of our country? In the future, the promotion of the strategy will inevitably cause China's direct investment and export trade to continue to increase along the Silk Road, so it is of great value to study the overall and country-specific effects of direct investment on export trade. This paper firstly analyzes the export trade effect of FDI, and then summarizes the current situation of China's direct investment and export trade in the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt. Again, in the empirical part, this paper selects the entire Silk Road economic belt and the eight countries along the Silk Road, and uses China's direct investment in it from 2005 to 2015. Data on total exports of goods and exports of capital-technology-intensive products have been established in nine time series to examine the export trade effects of China's direct investment in countries along the Silk Road economic belt. The conclusions are as follows: first, Export scale effect of China's Direct Investment to countries along Silk Road (1): trade creation; Second, China's direct investment in countries along the Silk Road can improve China's export trade structure, third, the overall export trade effect of China's direct investment in the countries along the Silk Road economic belt (2) is greater than the national export trade effect. Fourth, the export trade effect of China's direct investment to the countries along the Silk Road is different from country to country, the export scale effect is in order from high to low: UAE, Iran, Russia, Pakistan, India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Kazakhstan; The improvement of export structure is from big to small: Russia, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kazakhstan, India, Pakistan, Turkey; Fifth, China's direct investment in the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt is generally greater than that of the export scale in terms of overall and country-specific effects. Although China's direct investment in countries along the Silk Road has a "positive" effect on China's export trade, the pull effect of investment is relatively small, which is undoubtedly related to the small stock base of China's direct investment. With the advancement of the Silk Road economic belt strategy, China's direct investment in the Silk Road will be further increased, and its effect on export trade will also be enhanced.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F125;F752.62

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