【摘要】：近年來(lái)隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速發(fā)展，發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)不僅是全球各國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)氣候持續(xù)惡化的共同策略，也直接關(guān)系到我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的平穩(wěn)持續(xù)高速發(fā)展。大氣中二氧化碳排放量的減少，不僅可以減少經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展給環(huán)境帶來(lái)的負(fù)面效應(yīng)，還可以增強(qiáng)本國(guó)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理，將會(huì)造成產(chǎn)業(yè)間單位產(chǎn)出能耗強(qiáng)度的差異，因此，需要通過(guò)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整減少碳排放量。從根本上轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式，逐步構(gòu)建低碳的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)，全面推進(jìn)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的創(chuàng)建。 本文首先系統(tǒng)梳理了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的相關(guān)理論，總結(jié)了河北省在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)程中產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演化變動(dòng)特點(diǎn)。在相關(guān)理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上，對(duì)河北省在工業(yè)化進(jìn)程中產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的演變軌跡、能源消費(fèi)以及碳排放的特征進(jìn)行了分析。分析表明，河北省以第二產(chǎn)業(yè)為主的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)模式短時(shí)期內(nèi)不會(huì)發(fā)生變化。但新技術(shù)的應(yīng)用將促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化升級(jí)，減少化石能源的消費(fèi)量。同時(shí)，以服務(wù)業(yè)為主的第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的迅速發(fā)展，會(huì)降低第三產(chǎn)業(yè)能耗強(qiáng)度，盡管第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)相對(duì)薄弱，但提升空間較大，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的崛起將提升節(jié)能降碳空間，是發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)、實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展目標(biāo)的必經(jīng)之路。 通過(guò)構(gòu)建“產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演化-能源消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度關(guān)聯(lián)”和“產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演化-碳排放關(guān)聯(lián)”兩個(gè)基本模型，分析河北省及全國(guó)在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)過(guò)程中能源消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度和二氧化碳排放強(qiáng)度變化的相互關(guān)系及作用，分析表明，隨著產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的演進(jìn)，河北省能源消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度在逐年下降，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整緩慢，能源消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度表現(xiàn)出緩慢下降效應(yīng)，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整加快，能源消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度表現(xiàn)出增速下降效應(yīng)。在整個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)過(guò)程中二氧化碳排放強(qiáng)度呈現(xiàn)出逐年下降的趨勢(shì)。 運(yùn)用設(shè)立基準(zhǔn)情景、參考情景、優(yōu)化情景三個(gè)情景分析河北省在不同經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展速度下，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)帶來(lái)的降碳潛力。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，雖然河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)的起點(diǎn)低，但只要逐步擺脫對(duì)高耗能行業(yè)的高度依賴，大力發(fā)展第三產(chǎn)業(yè)，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)所帶來(lái)的結(jié)構(gòu)性降碳潛力巨大，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)性優(yōu)化對(duì)實(shí)現(xiàn)降碳目標(biāo)的貢獻(xiàn)率更是遠(yuǎn)高于全國(guó)。 基于上述分析，，本文最后根據(jù)河北省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)中節(jié)能降碳的潛力，有針對(duì)地提出了通過(guò)調(diào)整和優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)，盡快實(shí)現(xiàn)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy in recent years, the development of low-carbon economy is not only the common strategy of global countries to cope with the continuous deterioration of climate, but also directly related to the steady and sustained rapid development of China's economy. The reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere can not only reduce the negative effects of economic development on the environment, but also enhance the sustainable development capacity of our country. The unreasonable industrial structure will result in the difference of energy consumption intensity per unit output among industries. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce carbon emissions through the adjustment of industrial structure. We should fundamentally change the mode of economic development, build a low-carbon industrial structure and consumption structure step by step, and promote the establishment of a low-carbon economic society in an all-round way. Firstly, this paper systematically combs the relevant theories of industrial structure and summarizes the characteristics of the evolution of industrial structure in the process of economic development in Hebei Province. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper analyzes the evolution of industrial structure, energy consumption and carbon emission in Hebei Province in the process of industrialization. The analysis shows that the industrial structure model of Hebei Province, which is mainly secondary industry, will not change in a short period of time. But the application of new technology will promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and reduce the consumption of fossil energy. At the same time, the rapid development of the tertiary industry, which is dominated by the service industry, will reduce the energy intensity of the tertiary industry. Although the development basis of the tertiary industry is relatively weak, the promotion space is large, and the rise of the tertiary industry will enhance the energy saving and carbon reduction space. It is the only way to develop low-carbon economy and realize the goal of sustainable development. By constructing two basic models of "industrial structure evolvement-energy consumption intensity correlation" and "industrial structure evolvement-carbon emission correlation", This paper analyzes the relationship between energy consumption intensity and carbon dioxide emission intensity in Hebei Province and the whole country in the process of industrial structure evolution. The analysis shows that the energy consumption intensity of Hebei Province decreases year by year with the evolution of industrial structure. The industrial structure adjustment is slow, the energy consumption intensity shows the slow decline effect, the industrial structure adjustment accelerates, the energy consumption intensity shows the growth rate decline effect. In the process of industrial structure evolution, the intensity of carbon dioxide emission is decreasing year by year. This paper analyzes the potential of carbon reduction brought by the change of industrial structure in Hebei Province under different economic development speed by using three scenarios of setting up benchmark scenario, reference scenario and optimizing scenario. It is found that although the starting point of industrial structure evolution in Hebei Province is low, as long as we gradually get rid of the high dependence on energy-consuming industries and vigorously develop the tertiary industry, the structural carbon reduction potential brought about by the evolution of industrial structure is huge. The contribution rate of industrial structural optimization to the realization of carbon reduction target is much higher than that of the whole country. Based on the above analysis, according to the potential of energy saving and carbon reduction in the evolution of industrial structure in Hebei Province, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to realize the development of low-carbon economy as soon as possible by adjusting and optimizing the industrial structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：石家莊經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F124.5

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