本文選題：結(jié)構(gòu)性減速 + 勞動生產(chǎn)率��； 參考：《南京財經(jīng)大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：自2008年金融危機以來,中國GDP季度增速經(jīng)歷了一個“V”型的下降和反彈軌跡,在2010年第一季度達到最高點,之后出現(xiàn)了長達16個季度的下滑態(tài)勢。對于此輪經(jīng)濟增速下滑,一些學者認為是“結(jié)構(gòu)性”的,而非周期性的。結(jié)構(gòu)性減速主要來源于兩大結(jié)構(gòu)變化：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和人口結(jié)構(gòu),產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)服務化帶來了勞動生產(chǎn)率的減速,人口結(jié)構(gòu)的變化結(jié)束了廉價勞動力時代。結(jié)構(gòu)性減速又稱為系統(tǒng)性減速,是一種長期趨勢。外在的能源環(huán)境對經(jīng)濟增長的約束將持續(xù)強化,依靠傳統(tǒng)高投資和高投入驅(qū)動的高速經(jīng)濟增長,不利于經(jīng)濟社會的可持續(xù)健康發(fā)展,國民福利的提升要求經(jīng)濟增速不能太慢,理論上的適度經(jīng)濟增長是存在的。與西方發(fā)達國家不同,中國的結(jié)構(gòu)性減速發(fā)生在較低的收入水平上,進而不利于國民福利的提高和經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)增長。因此,在“結(jié)構(gòu)性減速”背景下,研究如何保持適度的經(jīng)濟增長,重構(gòu)經(jīng)濟增長的動力機制,具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。本文的內(nèi)容由五個章節(jié)構(gòu)成。第一章為緒論部分,主要是現(xiàn)有的相關(guān)文獻進行回顧的總結(jié)。第二章為理論部分,首先,對結(jié)構(gòu)性減速進行定義;然后建立了引入產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的經(jīng)濟增長模型,從理論上闡述了結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對經(jīng)濟增長的影響；其次,對人均GDP進行因素分解,分解出了3個結(jié)構(gòu)性因素,分別是勞動生產(chǎn)率、勞動參與率和勞動年齡人口比重,為了反映產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對勞動生產(chǎn)率的影響,又對勞動生產(chǎn)率分三次產(chǎn)業(yè)進行了分解;最后,利用13個國家的面板數(shù)據(jù),實證分析了3個結(jié)構(gòu)性因素對經(jīng)濟增長的影響。第三章描述分析了中國經(jīng)濟增長減速的風險,主要分析了經(jīng)濟增長減速的結(jié)構(gòu)性因素。第四章,首先闡述了適度經(jīng)濟增長的內(nèi)涵,其本質(zhì)含義是一個國家或地區(qū)的潛在經(jīng)濟增長；然后分析了結(jié)構(gòu)性因素對資本和勞動的影響；其次分析了傳統(tǒng)模型存在的缺陷,改進了索洛增長核算模型；最后基于改進之后的模型,測算了中國2015-2025年的潛在經(jīng)濟增長率。根據(jù)本文的分析,主要有以下結(jié)論：(1)低效的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)將嚴重削弱整體效率的提升,長期內(nèi)會造成經(jīng)濟增長乏力。(2)人口結(jié)構(gòu)的變化,勞動力供給減少,未必會降低潛在經(jīng)濟增長,關(guān)鍵在于提高勞動生產(chǎn)率。(3)受結(jié)構(gòu)性因素的影響,未來資本增速會降低,提高資本效率是關(guān)鍵。(4)技術(shù)進步是驅(qū)動未來經(jīng)濟增長的重要力量。(5)在2015-2025年,中國的經(jīng)濟增長可把握在以6.5%為中線的適度區(qū)間內(nèi)。
[Abstract]:Since the 2008 financial crisis, quarterly GDP growth in China has experienced a "V-shaped" decline and rebound trajectory, peaked in the first quarter of 2010, followed by a 16-quarter decline. Some scholars see the slowdown as "structural" rather than cyclical. The structural deceleration mainly comes from two structural changes: industrial structure and population structure. The service of industrial structure brings the deceleration of labor productivity, and the change of population structure ends the era of cheap labor. Structural deceleration, also known as systemic deceleration, is a long-term trend. The external energy environment will continue to strengthen the constraints on economic growth. Relying on the traditional high investment and high input driven high speed economic growth is not conducive to the sustainable and healthy development of the economy and society. The promotion of national welfare requires that the economic growth rate should not be too slow. In theory, moderate economic growth exists. Unlike western developed countries, China's structural deceleration occurs at lower income levels, which in turn is not conducive to the improvement of national welfare and sustainable economic growth. Therefore, under the background of "structural deceleration", it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study how to maintain moderate economic growth and reconstruct the motive mechanism of economic growth. The content of this paper consists of five chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, mainly the review of the existing literature. The second chapter is the theoretical part, first, the definition of structural deceleration; then the establishment of the industrial structure adjustment of economic growth model, from the theory of structural adjustment on the impact of economic growth; secondly, In order to reflect the effect of industrial structure adjustment on labor productivity, the factors of per capita GDP are decomposed into three structural factors, namely, labor productivity, labor participation rate and the proportion of working-age population. Finally, using the panel data of 13 countries, the paper empirically analyzes the influence of three structural factors on the economic growth. The third chapter describes the risk of China's economic growth deceleration, mainly analyzes the structural factors of economic growth deceleration. In the fourth chapter, the connotation of moderate economic growth is first expounded, the essential meaning is the potential economic growth of a country or region; then, the influence of structural factors on capital and labor is analyzed; secondly, the defects of traditional models are analyzed. Finally, based on the improved model, the potential economic growth rate of China in 2015-2025 is calculated. According to the analysis of this paper, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) inefficient industrial structure will seriously weaken the overall efficiency and will cause economic growth in the long run. (2) the change of population structure, the decrease of labor supply, The key is to increase labor productivity. (3) under the influence of structural factors, capital growth will decrease in the future, and capital efficiency will be the key. (4) technological progress is an important force driving future economic growth. (5) in 2015-2025, China's economic growth can be grasped in a moderate range of 6.5% as the midline.
【學位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124

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本文編號：2092412