發(fā)布時間：2018-06-24 21:23

  本文選題：人口紅利 + 撫養(yǎng)比�。� 參考：《湖南師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：人口紅利與經(jīng)濟增長之間的關(guān)系研究始于東亞經(jīng)濟增長奇跡之后,1970～1995年以日本、韓國、中國臺灣、中國香港為代表的東亞地區(qū),在人口轉(zhuǎn)變過程中隨著勞動年齡人口比重的較快增長而實現(xiàn)了人口紅利,并進一步提高了全社會的生產(chǎn)能力與儲蓄水平,為經(jīng)濟增長創(chuàng)造了有利的條件。然而東亞地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟增長奇跡隨著人口老齡化的到來而出現(xiàn)了一定的衰退。改革開放以來,我國在經(jīng)濟高速發(fā)展與計劃生育政策的共同作用下,較快的實現(xiàn)了西方國家歷經(jīng)百年才實現(xiàn)的人口轉(zhuǎn)變過程,即適齡勞動年齡人口比重較大的人口紅利時期。這一時期人口紅利效應(yīng)創(chuàng)造了中國經(jīng)濟以年均10%左右增長率實現(xiàn)快速的發(fā)展,因而被稱為“中國奇跡”,但是伴隨著人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的動態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)變,這一紅利正在發(fā)生著變化。 本文是在第六次人口普查及2013年中國統(tǒng)計局發(fā)布的人口增長率下降、老年人口比重增大、適齡勞動人口數(shù)量下降的背景之下,以人口轉(zhuǎn)變理論、經(jīng)濟增長理論、人口紅利理論為基礎(chǔ),首先分析了我國東中西部地區(qū)的人口紅利現(xiàn)狀及發(fā)展趨勢,并運用調(diào)整后的索洛斯旺理理論模型對勞動力供給、資本形成、人力資本積累及勞動力配置四個因素分析人口紅利對經(jīng)濟增長的內(nèi)在機理；其次從勞動力供給、儲蓄及人力資本積累三個方面入手,分別建立多元線性回歸模型,運用1995-2012年的數(shù)據(jù)對模型進行了實證分析,得出人口紅利對我國東中西部地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟增長確實存在一定的作用,且東部地區(qū)的人口紅利效應(yīng)強于中西部地區(qū),并對比了我國東中西部地區(qū)的人口紅利對GDP的貢獻度；最后提出以下五個方面的政策建議：加快經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)與發(fā)展方式的轉(zhuǎn)變、促進勞動力合理有序區(qū)域流動、全開發(fā)和提高勞動者的素質(zhì)、創(chuàng)建老年人口就業(yè)機會和渠道、制定和實施積極的人口生育政策,為能夠最大限度的挖掘我國尚余的人口紅利的同時也為應(yīng)對人口負(fù)債提供一些可借鑒的參考。
[Abstract]:The study on the relationship between population dividend and economic growth began after the miracle of economic growth in East Asia from 1970 to 1995, represented by Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, China. With the rapid increase of the proportion of the working-age population in the process of population transformation, the population dividend has been realized, and the productive capacity and saving level of the whole society have been further improved, which has created favorable conditions for economic growth. However, the miracle of economic growth in East Asia has declined with the arrival of an aging population. Since the reform and opening up, under the joint action of the rapid development of economy and the family planning policy, our country has realized the process of population transformation in western countries after a hundred years, that is, the period of population dividend with a large proportion of working-age population. During this period, the demographic dividend effect created the rapid development of the Chinese economy at an average annual growth rate of about 10%, so it is called the "Chinese miracle", but with the dynamic change of the age structure of the population, the dividend is changing. This paper is based on the theory of population transformation and economic growth under the background of the decline of population growth rate, the increase of the proportion of the elderly population and the decrease of the number of the working-age population, issued by the sixth population Census and the China Bureau of Statistics in 2013. Based on the theory of demographic dividend, this paper first analyzes the present situation and development trend of demographic dividend in the eastern, western and central regions of China, and applies the adjusted Soloswane theory model to the supply of labor force and the formation of capital. Human capital accumulation and labor allocation are four factors to analyze the intrinsic mechanism of population dividend on economic growth. Secondly, from three aspects of labor force supply, savings and human capital accumulation, the multivariate linear regression model is established. Using the data from 1995 to 2012, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the model, and draws a conclusion that the demographic dividend has a certain effect on the economic growth of the eastern, western and central regions of China, and the effect of the demographic dividend in the eastern region is stronger than that in the central and western regions. It also compares the contribution of demographic dividend to GDP in the east, west and west of China, and finally puts forward the following five policy suggestions: speeding up the transformation of economic structure and development mode, promoting the rational and orderly regional flow of labor force. To develop and improve the quality of workers, to create employment opportunities and channels for the elderly, and to formulate and implement active population and fertility policies. In order to maximize the exploitation of the remaining population dividend, but also to deal with the population debt to provide some reference.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124;C924.2

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本文編號：2063013