本文選題：結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整路徑 + 勒納指數(shù)　； 參考：《山東大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)版)》2017年04期

【摘要】：在經(jīng)濟(jì)增速換擋、結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題突出的新常態(tài)下,結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與轉(zhuǎn)變發(fā)展模式成為備受關(guān)注的議題。然而鮮有對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整路徑的測(cè)算以及從結(jié)構(gòu)角度對(duì)增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力的剖析。通過(guò)建立經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)跨期路徑模型,測(cè)算了我國(guó)未來(lái)十年經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的均衡調(diào)整路徑,并根據(jù)測(cè)算結(jié)果與中間變量對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力進(jìn)行分析。結(jié)果表明:第一產(chǎn)業(yè)將在經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整中迎來(lái)發(fā)展機(jī)遇,其資本與產(chǎn)出占比均會(huì)有顯著增加;第二產(chǎn)業(yè)將通過(guò)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整釋放發(fā)展空間,在需求的拉動(dòng)下獲得一定發(fā)展,其資本與產(chǎn)出占比將有所降低;第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)出占比處在合意區(qū)間內(nèi),在需求拉動(dòng)的作用下將繼續(xù)保持最大產(chǎn)業(yè)的地位。
[Abstract]:In the new normal of economic growth shift and structural problems, structural adjustment and transformation of development model have become the subject of much concern. However, there is little calculation of the economic structure adjustment path and analysis of the growth motive force from the structural point of view. By establishing the intertemporal path model of economic structure, this paper calculates the equilibrium adjustment path of China's economic structure in the next ten years, and analyzes the motive force of economic growth according to the calculation results and intermediate variables. The results show that the primary industry will meet the development opportunities in the economic restructuring, and its capital and output share will increase significantly, and the secondary industry will release the development space through structural adjustment and obtain certain development under the demand. The ratio of capital to output will be reduced, the ratio of output of tertiary industry will be in the desirable range, and the position of the largest industry will continue to be maintained under the action of demand-driven.
【作者單位】： 吉林大學(xué)數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心;
【基金】：國(guó)家社科基金重大項(xiàng)目“中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)潛在增長(zhǎng)率計(jì)算與結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)換路徑研究”(12&ZD197)
【分類號(hào)】：F121.3

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本文編號(hào)：1973696