本文選題：碳減排成本 + 資本回報(bào)率　； 參考：《中國(guó)人口·資源與環(huán)境》2017年10期

【摘要】：對(duì)資本回報(bào)率進(jìn)行綠色核算既符合當(dāng)前綠色發(fā)展的新理念,同時(shí)也是判斷我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)可持續(xù)性的重要依據(jù)。使用超越對(duì)數(shù)生產(chǎn)函數(shù)估算1960—2014年碳排放的影子價(jià)格;利用Hall-Jorgenson租金公式測(cè)算剔除碳減排成本的中國(guó)資本回報(bào)率的動(dòng)態(tài)演變趨勢(shì)。對(duì)中國(guó)資本回報(bào)率重新估算克服了因忽略碳減排成本而導(dǎo)致的高估,估算結(jié)果更加科學(xué)可靠。研究結(jié)果:(1)中國(guó)碳排放的影子價(jià)格由1960年的56.34元/t上升到2011年的1651.69/t,根據(jù)影子價(jià)格計(jì)算的碳減排成本占GDP總量的份額年均為31%。(2)不考慮碳減排成本和稅收因素的基礎(chǔ)資本回報(bào)率變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)可以劃分為三個(gè)階段。1952-1983年為第一階段,資本回報(bào)率在波動(dòng)中由高位逐步回落。1984—2010年是第二個(gè)階段,基礎(chǔ)資本回報(bào)率保持平穩(wěn)。2011年以來(lái)是第三個(gè)階段,這一階段中國(guó)的資本回報(bào)率呈臺(tái)階式下降趨勢(shì),特別是2012—2014年,稅后的資本回報(bào)率已經(jīng)難以抵補(bǔ)企業(yè)投資的機(jī)會(huì)成本。(3)考慮碳減排成本將導(dǎo)致資本回報(bào)率平均下降約12%。其中1960—1975年資本回報(bào)率呈下降趨勢(shì)。1976—2008年資本回報(bào)率基本保持穩(wěn)定,資本回報(bào)率平均值為15.2%。2009年以后,資本回報(bào)率則表現(xiàn)出逐年下降的趨勢(shì),2014年的估算值甚至降為-1%。本文僅考慮了碳減排成本,如果再考慮諸如二氧化硫等廢氣排放、廢水與固廢排放的成本后,綠色資本回報(bào)率的估算值將更低。建議:在當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)下,應(yīng)實(shí)施激勵(lì)企業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新以及減稅(尤其是生產(chǎn)稅)政策遏制資本回報(bào)率下降的趨勢(shì)。另外,需要采取分階段遞增的環(huán)境規(guī)制政策,逐步實(shí)現(xiàn)企業(yè)環(huán)境外部成本的內(nèi)部化。
[Abstract]:Green accounting for the rate of return on capital is not only in line with the new concept of green development, but also is an important basis for judging the sustainability of economic growth in China. The shadow price of carbon emissions in 1960-2014 is estimated by using the surpassing logarithmic production function, and the dynamic evolution trend of China's capital return rate excluding the cost of carbon reduction is estimated by using the Hall-Jorgenson rent formula. The revaluation of China's return on capital overcomes the overestimation caused by ignoring the cost of reducing carbon emissions, and the results are more scientific and reliable. Results: (1) the shadow price of China's carbon emissions rose from 56.34 yuan / t in 1960 to 1651.69 / t in 2011, and the average annual share of carbon emission reduction costs in total GDP calculated according to shadow prices was 31.2.) the basis for disregarding the cost of reducing carbon emissions and tax revenue factors Trends in the rate of return on capital can be divided into three stages. The return on capital gradually fell from high to high. 1984-2010 was the second stage, and the return on basic capital remained stable. Since 2011, the return on capital has been the third stage, and the return on capital in China has been declining step by step. In particular, in 2012-2014, the after-tax rate of return on capital has become difficult to offset the opportunity cost of corporate investment.) considering the cost of reducing carbon emissions, the average return on capital will fall by about 12 cents. The return on capital in 1960-1975 showed a downward trend. The return on capital remained stable in 1976-2008. After the average return of capital was 15.2.2009, the return on capital showed a downward trend year by year, and the estimated value in 2014 even dropped to -1. The cost of carbon emission reduction is only considered in this paper. If the cost of waste water and solid waste emissions such as sulfur dioxide is taken into account the estimate of green capital return will be even lower. Suggestions: under the current economic situation, we should implement the policy of encouraging technological innovation of enterprises and reducing tax (especially production tax) to curb the downward trend of return on capital. In addition, it is necessary to adopt step by step environmental regulation policy to realize the internalization of external cost of enterprise environment step by step.
【作者單位】： 西安外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)金融學(xué)院;西安外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)資源環(huán)境與產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究中心;暨南大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：陜西省軟科學(xué)研究計(jì)劃重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目“陜西省生態(tài)環(huán)境修復(fù)與治理研究”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):2015KRZ006);陜西省軟科學(xué)研究計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目“智能電網(wǎng)條件下西安市居民家庭用戶分終端電力需求側(cè)管理的成本收益研究”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):2015KRM143)
【分類號(hào)】：F124;X321
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本文編號(hào)：1946308